We are going to wrap up this blog for the time being. Please follow our live coverage of the ongoing Ukraine crisis here:
Jair Bolsonaro is facing backlash at home and abroad over his decision to visit Russia for trade talks with Vladimir Putin.
Two officials from Brazil’s foreign ministry told Associated Press that they have received messages from US officials saying the trip’s timing is inopportune and conveys Brazilian indifference to threats of invasion.
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity for lack of authorisation to speak publicly, AP said.
A US state department official, meanwhile, issued a statement on Monday night US time that appeared to accept the meeting would go ahead.
As democratic leaders, the United States and Brazil have a responsibility to stand up for democratic principles and the rules-based order. We hope Brazil will take this opportunity to reinforce this message in their conversations in Moscow.
At least two of Bolsonaro’s Cabinet ministers, who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals, said privately they have been trying since last week to convince him to call off the trip.
They said Bolsonaro sees potential benefits for a possible reelection bid because he can show proximity to fellow conservative leaders abroad.
Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro flies to Russia to meet Putin
Brazil’s president Jair Bolsonaro has set off on an official visit to Russia where he will meet the Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
Bolsonaro, who likes to portray himself as a “strongman” nationalist leader, decided to go ahead with the visit despite pressure from Brazil’s traditional ally the United States and within his own cabinet.
He says the visit is to build trade relations. Brazil, a major global agricultural producer and exporter, “depends largely on fertilizers from Russia” Bolsonaro said to justify the trip.
However, it will be seen as a signal of support for Putin amid the Ukraine border standoff.
Agence France-Presse also reported that Brazil has reaffirmed its diplomatic ties with Kyiv on Monday.
“The minister of foreign affairs, Carlos Franca, spoke by phone today with the Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba,” the foreign ministry said on Twitter shortly before Bolsonaro took off for Russia.
Franca “listened to his counterpart’s assessment of the current situation on the border between Ukraine and Russia” and reiterated Brazil’s support of a “peaceful resolution” of the crisis, said the ministry, noting that Brazil and Ukraine recently celebrated 30 years of diplomatic ties.
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Japan may impose sanctions if Russia invades Ukraine
Japan may take steps against Russia, including imposing sanctions, if its troops invade Ukraine, foreign minister Yoshimasa Hayashi said, Reuters reports.
Hayashi told a news conference in Tokyo on Tuesday:
First and foremost, Japan is strongly seeking a resolution through diplomatic dialogue.
But if a Russian invasion takes place, Japan will take appropriate steps including possible sanctions, in response to what has actually happened, and in coordination with the G7 and international community.”
More on that Belarus announcement from the US state department.
A travel advisory reads:
Do not travel to Belarus due to the arbitrary enforcement of laws, the risk of detention, unusual and concerning Russian military buildup along Belarus’ border with Ukraine, Covid-19 and related entry restrictions.
US citizens in Belarus should depart immediately via commercial or private means.”
On 31 January, the department ordered the departure of family members of US government employees from the embassy in Minsk.
However, due to an “increase in unusual and concerning Russian military activity near the border with Ukraine, US citizens located in or considering travel to Belarus should be aware that the situation is unpredictable and there is heightened tension in the region.
On 12 February, the US ordered the departure of most employees at its embassy in Kyiv due to the continued threat of Russian military action. Potential harassment targeted specifically at foreigners is also possible, the advisory warned. Given the heightened volatility of the situation, US citizens are strongly advised against traveling to Belarus.
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US state department recommends American citizens leave Belarus
A quick snap from Reuters here that the US state department is recommending American citizens leave Belarus immediately due to the Russian military buildup along the Belarus border with Ukraine.
We will have more on this story as it develops.
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Hello it’s Samantha Lock joining you on the blog as my colleague Kari Paul signs off.
Let’s start with the recent announcement that Canada has said it will send lethal military weaponry to Ukraine with a promise to loan Kyiv $500m to help defend itself in the face of “Russian aggression”.
Prime minister Justin Trudeau made the announcement during a press briefing on Monday, Reuters reports:
In light of the seriousness of the situation and following conversations with our Ukrainian partners, I’ve approved the provision of Can$7.8 million worth of lethal equipment and ammunition.
This responds to Ukraine’s specific request, and is in addition to the non-lethal equipment we’ve already provided,” he said, adding that “the intent of this support from Canada and other partners is to deter further Russian aggression.”
Trudeau followed up the conference by tweeting that Canada would continue to support Ukraine “in the face of persistent Russian aggression”.
In addition, the prime minister said Ottawa would provide more loans to Ukraine, bringing the total announced since the beginning of the year to Can$620 million (US$490 million).
Canada, which is home to a large Ukrainian diaspora, has ordered its military trainers out of Ukraine and closed its embassy in Kyiv temporarily.
Some 200 Canadian soldiers have been deployed in Ukraine since 2015 as part of the UNIFIER mission, aimed at contributing to the training of Ukrainian forces.
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Kari Paul here, logging off for the evening. Next you will hear from my Australia colleagues. Below are some top news lines from the afternoon.
- The State Department said on Monday that Russia still has not responded to documents delivered weeks ago by the Biden administration regarding a diplomatic path relating to the Ukraine crisis.
- Due to safety concerns relating to a potential Ukraine invasion, the World Bank and IMF have relocated staff in the country temporarily.
- The White House said on Monday that it is considering an offer of $1bn in credit guarantees to Ukraine to help it endure economic fallout from the ongoing crisis.
- Joe Biden and Boris Johnson agreed in a call on Monday that a “crucial window for diplomacy” remains in the Ukraine crisis.
- Meanwhile, the White House has assembled a tactical team to prepare for a Russian invasion.
White House prepares for a Russian invasion
Over at the Washington Post we have a window into the “Tiger Team”: a Biden administration team coordinating a response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
According to the report many of the officials conscripted to the operation are veterans of the 2014 Russian invasion and annexation of Crimea. More from the report:
The White House team has staged two multihour tabletop exercises — including one with Cabinet officials — to bring the scenarios to life and assembled a playbook that outlines an array of swift potential responses, starting with Day One and extending through the first two weeks of an envisioned Russian invasion.
That playbook covers everything from actual battlefield scenarios to potential responses to related issues, like how to manage an influx of refugees in neighboring countries, and potential cyber attacks from Moscow.
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US and UK leaders strategize Russia response as ‘window for diplomacy’ remains
There is a “crucial window for diplomacy” remaining in the Ukraine crisis, Boris Johnson and Joe Biden agreed in a call Monday.
World leaders agreed in discussion that even as Russia inches towards an invasion there remains time for the country to step back and avoid a conflict.
“The leaders emphasised that any further incursion into Ukraine would result in a protracted crisis for Russia, with far reaching damage for both Russia and the world,” a Downing Street spokesman told AFP.
Diplomatic discussions with Russia remain “the first priority”, that spokesman said, adding that officials have “agreed that Western allies must remain united in the face of Russian threats”.
European countries should also work to reduce their dependence on Russian gas, the leaders said, to further destabilize the country’s strategic interests.
The White House said the leaders “reviewed ongoing diplomatic and deterrence efforts in response to Russia’s continued military build-up on Ukraine’s borders and reaffirmed their support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”.
“They discussed efforts to reinforce the defensive posture on NATO’s eastern flank and underlined the continued close coordination among Allies and partners, including on readiness to impose severe consequences on Russia should it choose further military escalation,” it added.
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US considers $1bn in credit guarantees to Ukraine
The United States is considering an offer of $1bn in credit guarantees to Ukraine to help it endure fallout caused by ongoing threats from Russia, the White House said on Monday.
In a press conference on Monday, White House principal deputy press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters that the loan guarantee is “something we are considering as part of the additional macro-economic support we are exploring to help Ukraine’s economy in this pressure resulting from Russia’s military build-up”.
The loan comes as Russia has sent over 100,000 troops to Ukranian borders, encroaching from three directions.
With one of the poorest economies in Europe, Ukraine has already suffered financially from heightened tensions over the possibility of an invasion by Russia.
Jake Sullivan, the US National Security advisor, briefed congressional leaders Monday on the plan, according to a source familiar with the matter.
Sullivan said on Sunday the Biden administration believes that Russia could attack Ukraine “any day now”.
The US has now provided Ukraine with $650m in military assistance over the past year, in addition to economic and humanitarian aid.
Other countries are also supporting Ukraine-German chancellor Olaf Scholz said on a visit to Kyiv on Monday he was “determined” to maintain aid to the country.
G7 countries have also warned Moscow they are ready to impose sanctions that would have a huge and immediate impact on Russia’s economy, should it pursue any further military aggression against Ukraine.
AFP contributed to this report.
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World Bank and IMF relocate staff from Ukraine
As concerns of a potential Russian invasion intensify, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund will relocate staff currently based in Ukraine.
The institutions said they would continue to support work in the country but that staff would be sent elsewhere.
Reuters has obtained an internal memo from the World Bank sent Monday, which said it is monitoring the situation at the border as Russia amasses a large military force there. It did not say where the staff would relocate or how many members were impacted.
“The World Bank Group’s foremost priority is to keep our staff and their families safe. In line with our evacuation policy, temporary relocation of staff is under way and enhanced security measures are in place,” the memo said.
Meanwhile, a spokesperson for the IMF confirmed that Vahram Stepanyan, its representative based in Ukraine, would be temporarily located.
Stepanyan has been based in Kyiv since July 2021, acting as a local head of the IMF and working with local Ukrainian employees.
“IMF staff remain engaged and in contact with their Ukrainian counterparts,” the IMF spokesperson said.
The United States is relocating its Ukraine embassy operations from the capital Kyiv to the western city of Lviv, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday, citing a “dramatic acceleration in the buildup of Russian forces” on the nearby border.
The IMF maintains a $5bn loan program for Ukraine, while the World Bank has provided nearly $1.3bn in financing to Ukraine since the Covid-19 pandemic started.
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US state department still has not received a response to documents sent to Russia
A spokesman for the US state department said on Monday that Russia has still not responded to documents it sent officials there weeks ago. From the press briefing:
“We’ve seen the comments from the Kremlin, from Moscow, indicating that their response, in their words, has been finalized. It’s been I believe, over two weeks now, since we dispatched our non-deeper to Moscow. We’ve yet to see a response,” state department spokesman Ned Price said at a briefing.
Joe Biden previously said the documents laid out a response to Russia’s recent actions and “sets out a serious diplomatic path forward should Russia choose it”.
They were delivered in person to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs by US Ambassador to Russia, John Sullivan. Price said the US would “carefully review” the response once it is received.
“We are prepared to engage in diplomacy, we hope to engage in good faith, dialogue and diplomacy, but in order for it to be good faith, of course, that will require the Russians to respond in kind,” he said. “In order for this to bear fruit, it will also have to take place in the context of deescalation. And that is just not something we’ve seen to date,” Price said.
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Vladimir Putin has suggested it is still not too late for dialogue over Ukraine, as the world continues to be left guessing whether the Russian president is on the brink of invading his neighbor or whether his military buildup is a negotiating ploy.
In a meeting in the Kremlin, the foreign minister Sergei Lavrov told Putin he believed there was still room for dialogue on Russian requests for a new security deal with the west, which have been made as Russia amassed 140,000 troops around Ukraine’s borders in recent weeks.
“It seems to me that our possibilities are far from being exhausted. They certainly should not continue indefinitely. But at this stage I would suggest that they continue and be intensified,” Lavrov told Putin.
Putin, who has taken to holding meetings with extreme social distancing owing to a fear of contracting Covid, gave his assent from the other end of an extremely long table.
The footage released from the meeting appeared carefully choreographed to send a message about Kremlin thinking.
“We warn against endless conversations on issues that need to be resolved today. Still, as the foreign minister, I should say that there is always a chance,” said Lavrov.
At the same time, a senior Russian diplomat told the Guardian that Russia would be within its rights to “counterattack” against Ukraine if it felt Kyiv was threatening the population of eastern Ukraine.
“We will not invade Ukraine unless we are provoked to do that,” said Vladimir Chizhov, Russia’s ambassador to the EU, in an interview in Brussels.
“If the Ukrainians launch an attack against Russia, you shouldn’t be surprised if we counterattack. Or, if they start blatantly killing Russian citizens anywhere – Donbas or wherever,” he said.
Donbas is the region of eastern Ukraine where Russia has armed and funded an insurgency since 2014 and where the Kremlin has handed out hundreds of thousands of Russian passports. In January, US officials briefed journalists on intelligence they claimed showed that Russia was preparing a “false flag” incident that could be used as a pretext for an intervention.
Full report here.
Hello, readers! This is Kari Paul in the Guardian’s California bureau taking over with updates for the next few hours. Stay tuned for more news.
UN secretary general urges players in Ukraine crisis to "defuse tensions"
United Nations secretary general Antonio Guterres has called on countries embroiled in the crisis over whether Russia will invade Ukraine to find a diplomatic fix.
He said today that he is deeply worried about the heightened tensions over Ukraine and “increased speculation” about a military conflict.
Calling on countries to respect the UN charter and avoid war, Gutterres said: “The time is now to defuse tensions and deescalate actions on the ground. There is no place for incendiary rhetoric. Public statements should aim to reduce tensions, not inflame them.”
In a live address he told gathered reporters: “Abandoning diplomacy for confrontation is not a step over a line, it is a dive over a cliff. In short, my appeal is this: do not fail the cause of peace.”
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More from White House principal deputy press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on prospects for an invasion of Ukraine “at any time.”
“It remains unclear which path Russia will choose to take because we do not know, it is his [Putin’s] decision to make. We remain engaged with Russian government in full coordination with our allies and partners.
“The path for diplomacy remains available if Russia chooses, again, to engage constructively. But we’re clear-eyed about the prospects on the ground and we are ready to impose severe costs on Russia, in coordination with our allies and partners, if they attack Ukraine.”
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An invasion could begin "at any time" – White House
White House principal deputy press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre has just warned that: “We are in the window when an invasion could begin at any time” in relation to the face-off between Russia and Ukraine.
At the daily media briefing at the White House a little earlier, Jean-Pierre added: “The path for diplomacy remains available ... But we are clear-eyed about the prospects on the ground” with 100,000-plus Russian troops massed along the Ukraine border.
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Biden-Johnson in call discuss "severe consequences" for Russia if it invades Ukraine
US president Joe Biden has just wrapped up a phone call with Britain’s prime minister, Boris Johnson, where the two leaders discussed their latest positions in the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
They discussed efforts to reinforce the allies’ defensive posture on Nato’s eastern flank and their “readiness to impose severe consequences on Russia should it choose further military escalation”, according to the White House.
“The leaders discussed their recent diplomatic engagements with Ukraine and Russia. They also reviewed ongoing diplomatic and deterrence efforts in response to Russia’s continued military build-up on Ukraine’s borders and reaffirmed their support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” the White House further said.
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In his most recent address to the nation, Zelenskiy was not saying he necessarily agreed with the assessment that there would be an attack on Wednesday, and he attributed it to reports from others.
He has been consistently critical of US and allied forecasts of doom. The intent behind the address appeared to calm nerves, assure Ukrainians of the capabilities of the armed forces, and a call for national unity in the face of the constant psychological pressure.
According to CNN, Mykhailo Podoliak, a Ukrainian presidential adviser said that Zelenskiy was being ironic.
And NBC reports that Sergii Nykyforov, Zelenskiy’s spokesman told NBCNews: “By saying ‘we were told the attack is going to be on Feb 16’, the president referred to a date that was spread by the media. It is not even an official date. Just a date that came from some officials, a leak.”
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Interim summary
Hello to our live blog readers following events in the Russia-Ukraine crisis. The news has been breaking fast and furious in recent hours and we’re bringing you all the developments – now from your team at Guardian US HQ in New York, who have recently taken over coverage from the team at the Guardian’s London global HQ.
We’ll take you through the next few hours before handing the baton to our Guardian US colleagues in California.
Here’s where things stand:
- Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy just gave an address to his nation, posted in English on Facebook saying: “We are told that February 16 will be the day of attack.” He cites no sources for that prediction of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
- US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that the Biden administration is moving its remaining embassy staff in Ukraine from the capital Kyiv to the city of Lviv, further west, for safety reasons, as expectations of a Russian incursion continue to rise.
- The Pentagon warned that Russian president Vladimir Putin is adding more military force and capability near Ukraine’s border with each passing day.
- Russian oligarchs would be targeted with “severe” sanctions if Russia invaded Ukraine, the UK’s foreign secretary, Liz Truss, said.
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German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on his visit to Zelenskiy in Kyiv earlier today that the “territorial integrity of Ukraine is not negotiable”. Scholz (who was elected to succeed the long-serving Angela Merkel) will be in Moscow tomorrow to talk to Putin.
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Ukraine's Zelenskiy posts Facebook video about 'day of attack'
A video address from Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy to his nation has been posted in English on Facebook, saying: “We are told that February 16 will be the day of attack.”
Zelenskiy does not cite a source for the information. In a different translation on the Reuters news wire, he is quoted as saying: “They tell us February 16 will be the day of the attack.”
He then goes on to say, according to Reuters: “We will make it a day of unity. They are trying to frighten us by yet again naming a date for the start of military action.”
In the Facebook translation, Zelenskiy continues: “We are intimidated by a great war and once again set the date of the military invasion. This is not the first time.
“But our state is stronger today than ever. We strive for peace and want to solve all issues exclusively through negotiations.”
Such a statement is surprising and, if the president has been reliably informed of the timing of a planned incursion, or invasion, it is utterly extraordinary. The Hill also reported the Facebook post.
The Facebook post translation further says: “We have one great European aspiration. We want freedom and are ready to vote for it. 14 thousand defenders and civilians who died in this war [since the Russian aggression in Ukrainian territory since 2014] are watching us from the sky.
“And we will not betray their memory. We all want to live happily, and happiness loves the strong. We have never been able to give up and we are not going to learn that.Love Ukraine! We are at peace! We are strong! We are together!”
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The decision to evacuate the Kyiv embassy is a turnaround from Saturday morning when a senior state department official insisted that the embassy would not be closed and that a few diplomats would stay on “sufficient to be able to continue working closely with the Ukrainian government, to be able to ensure we’ve got the best possible information for our senior leaders and the President about what’s happening broadly in society.”
The official noted the US does not have a diplomatic facility in Lviv, so it would be an ad hoc operation out of the western Ukrainian city.”
Conceptually, this is much more like a group of people from the embassy temporarily working in another city, just as we would if we had a visit by senior US government officials or members of Congress,” the official said.
US relocating remaining Ukraine embassy staff
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has just announced that the Biden administration is moving its remaining embassy staff in Ukraine from the capital Kyiv to the city of Lviv, further west.
Blinken is citing the “dramatic acceleration in the buildup of Russian forces” on the border with Ukraine.
The secretary of state had already told a news conference in Honolulu yesterday that the risk of Russian military action in Ukraine was high and imminent enough to justify the departure of much of the staff from the embassy,
Last Friday, Joe Biden urged American citizens to leave the country while there were still commercial flights. That was excluding essential embassy staff who remained put in Kyiv.
Blinken said in a statement today that the decision was taken out of safety concerns.
“My team and I constantly review the security situation to determine when prudence dictates a change in posture,” Blinken said.
He noted that Washington would continue working for a diplomatic solution to the tensions with Moscow.
Embassy operations were being temporarily moved to Lviv - which is around 50 miles from the western border of Ukraine, next to Poland.
Blinken added that US diplomats would continue to engage with the Ukrainian government from that location.
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Ukraine’s president declares Wednesday 'Day of national unity' amid invasion fears
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has declared that Wednesday 16 February, the day on which US intelligence believes a Russian invasion could take place, will be a day of national unity.
Published on the president’s website, Zelensky called on the country’s blue and yellow national flag to be hung on state buildings and other structures, and for the national anthem to be played nationwide at 10am on Wednesday.
The decree states that “urgent measures to consolidate Ukrainian society” are required in order “to strengthen the consolidation of Ukrainian society, strengthen its resilience in the face of growing hybrid threats, information and propaganda, moral and psychological pressure on the public consciousness.”
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The United Nations has no plans to evacuate or relocate out of Ukraine any of its more than 1,600 staff, according to UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres spoke separately on Monday with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and still believed “from his own analysis, his own hopes” that there would not be a conflict, Dujarric said.
“He welcomed the ongoing diplomatic discussions to defuse those tensions and underlined, yet again, the fact that there is no alternative to diplomacy,” Dujarric said.
Latvian airline airBaltic is adding extra flights from Kyiv to the Latvian capital Riga, citing exceptional demand. The announcement came after the Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged Latvian nationals to leave Ukraine at the earliest opportunity.
In a statement, the airline said the flights, scheduled on Tuesday and Wednesday, are “to address the significant passenger demand”.
“AirBaltic is continuously evaluating the current situation and … is flexible and ready to adjust its flight schedule if necessary,” the statement said.
Ukraine’s National Police have entered a so-called “enhanced mode” to “ensure security and preparedness,” according to police Igor Klimenko. In a Facebook post on Monday, Klimenko said security measures would enter an “enhanced” mode until Saturday.
In practical terms, this means implementing an increased number of patrols to ensure public safety and order on the streets; the deployment of additional “situational centres” for 24-hour monitoring; and securing protection for critical infrastructure, public authorities and local governments.
He said the rationale for the enhanced mode is to “provide a more efficacious response to public safety threats”, adding: “This stricter police regime should not be cause for alarm. It is necessary to ensure security and preparedness. We protect, not panic!”
Vladimir Putin increasing Russia's military options on Ukraine's border, Pentagon warns
Vladimir Putin is adding more military force and capability near Ukraine’s border with each passing day, Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby said.
“This is a military that, that continues to grow stronger, continues to grow more ready,” Kirby told MSNBC. “They’re exercising, so we believe that he has a lot of capabilities and options available to him should he want to use military force.”
“Should he want to use military force ... it could happen any day,” he said, adding that the United States has also not ruled out potential cyber attacks from Russia.
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UK sending 'small number' of troops to Lithuania – MoD
The UK is sending a “small number” of troops to Lithuania to help it with the migrant crisis on its border with Belarus, the Ministry of Defence has said.
Earlier today it was reported that a German military aircraft carrying around 70 soldiers landed in Lithuania, the first of several planned Nato deployments amid fears in the region about a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine.
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A senior EU official has said EU leaders could hold an emergency summit on the Ukraine crisis this week, on the sidelines of a meeting with their African counterparts, Agence France-Presse reports.
The official said Brussels was waiting for the results of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s visit to the Kremlin and an emergency summit was “possible” if needed when EU leaders gather in Brussels on Thursday for the Africa meeting.
The EU official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the West could not say if Putin has yet taken a decision to invade - but warned that an attack could take place at any moment.
From Ukraine’s minister of foreign affairs Dmytro Kuleba, following a day of rumours that Ukraine might renounce its ambitions to join NATO.
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Russia’s ambassador to the EU has said Moscow would be within its rights to launch a “counterattack” if it felt it needed to protect Russian citizens living in eastern Ukraine.
The comments in an interview with the Guardian will do little to calm fears of a major Russian assault on Ukraine, given one of the key scenarios suggested by western intelligence was Russia launching a “false-flag” operation to provide a pretext for invasion.
“We will not invade Ukraine unless we are provoked to do that,” said Vladimir Chizhov, who has represented Russia in Brussels since 2005. “If the Ukrainians launch an attack against Russia, you shouldn’t be surprised if we counterattack. Or, if they start blatantly killing Russian citizens anywhere – Donbas or wherever.”
Donbas is the region of eastern Ukraine where the Kremlin has armed and funded an insurgency since 2014. It has also, in recent years, handed out hundreds of thousands of Russian passports to residents of two so-called “people’s republics”, which are no longer controlled by Kyiv.
More than 14,000 people have been killed in the conflict since 2014.
Russia has always denied being a party to the conflict despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
More Russian mercenaries have moved into Ukraine, security sources say
Reuters reports that Russian mercenaries with ties to Moscow’s spies have increased their presence in Ukraine in recent weeks, stoking fears among some Nato members that Russia could try to engineer a pretext for an invasion.
The news agency cited the information to “three senior Western security sources”.
The sources, Reuters reported, said, “their concerns had strengthened in recent weeks that a Russian incursion into Ukraine could be preceded by an information war, and cyber attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure such as electricity and gas networks.”
Russia could also use the mercenaries to sow discord and paralyse Ukraine through targeted assassinations and the use of specialised weaponry, the sources said.
The United States has warned that Russia could stage a “false flag” operation inside Ukraine to justify an invasion.
“It is likely that Russian mercenaries, under the direction of the Russian state, will be involved in any hostilities in Ukraine, potentially including a pretext for an invasion,” said one Western security source, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The Kremlin told Reuters that Russia was not strengthening its presence on Ukrainian territory and that Russian troops had never been present there and were not now.
Russian oligarchs would be targeted with “severe” sanctions if Russia invaded Ukraine, the UK foreign secretary, Liz Truss, has said. (Via PA Media)
Truss said she still hoped for a diplomatic solution, telling reporters:
That is why the prime minister and I are travelling around Europe this week, that is why we are working to persuade the Russians to remove their troops from the border, because a war would be disastrous.
But she added:
We are very clear that Russia is the aggressor in this situation. They have 100,000 troops lined up on the Ukrainian borders. They need to de-escalate because it will be a cost to Russia if they invade Ukraine, both in terms of the cost of a long-running war, but also the sanctions that we would impose, which would be severe, and would target oligarchs and it would target companies across Russia.
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AFP has this on Zelenskiy telling Scholz that Russia is wielding its Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline as a “geopolitical weapon”.
The controversial energy link bypassing Ukraine has been a growing irritant in Germany’s relations with Washington and Kyiv.
“We have certain disagreements in our assessments” of the Russia-Germany energy link, Zelenskiy said, after talks with Scholz in Kyiv.
“We clearly understand that it is a geopolitical weapon.”
Russia has completed the building the pipeline, which runs under the Baltic Sea, but German regulators are yet to approve its use.
US president Joe Biden has warned that he would find a way to “bring an end” to the project should Russia invade Ukraine.
Without mentioning Nord Stream 2 by name, Scholz said that “no one should doubt the determination and preparedness” of Berlin to punish Russia in case it attacks its neighbour.
“We will act then and they will be very far-reaching measures that will have a significant impact on Russia’s economic development opportunities,” Scholz said.
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Vladimir Putin could launch an invasion of Ukraine “almost immediately”, the UK foreign secretary, Liz Truss, has warned.
She repeated a call for Britons to leave Ukraine because of the threat of war, after chairing a meeting of the government’s Cobra emergency committee.
Truss said:
We are fully aware that there could be a Russian invasion almost immediately. That is why British citizens do need to leave Ukraine but we are also pursuing the path of diplomacy and de-escalation.
(Via PA Media)
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Russia’s foreign minister advises Putin to continue talking to west – video
During a televised exchange, Sergei Lavrov suggests to Vladimir Putin that Moscow continue along the diplomatic path, saying possibilities for talks on Ukraine had not been exhausted. ‘They shouldn’t continue endlessly, but at this stage, I would propose to continue and increase them,’ says the foreign minister.
More here from Zelenskiy on Ukraine’s pursuit of Nato membership (via Reuters). He says his country won’t be told how to act because of the possible reaction in Moscow:
Today, many journalists and many leaders are hinting a little to Ukraine that it is possible not to take risks, not to constantly raise the issue of future membership in the alliance, because these risks are associated with the reaction of the Russian Federation. I believe that we should move along the path we have chosen.
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According to Reuters, Zelenskiy has also just questioned the patriotism of “entities that have moved their offices to Warsaw or Lviv in western Ukraine.
The German chancellor has said these are “very serious times”, but that Germany stands closely by Ukraine’s side and is impressed with the country’s democratic movement.
Scholz says “no other country has supported Ukraine as much financially as Germany”, and has just announced that €150m will be paid out to Ukraine with immediate effect, with a new credit of another €150m.
He says Germany has been training Ukrainian soldiers and treating injured civilians, and that “the sovereignty and territorial independence of Ukraine are non-negotiable”.
Scholz has promised to emphasise the consequences of an invasion when he is in Moscow tomorrow:
If Russia again violates the territorial integrity of Ukraine, we will know what to do … There’s one central challenge: to de-escalate the situation and for troops to draw back.
Scholz says he expects clear steps towards de-escalation from Russia, adding that he will tell Putin that any invasion would have heavy economic consequences.
He also says a sanctions package is being worked on, and that the necessary decision on imposing them could be made at any moment. Scholz says there is no reasonable justification for Russian military activity on the Ukrainian border, and that Germany expects Russia to use the offer of security dialogue.
The German chancellor is also reacting to the Nato talk, saying that Ukrainian accession discussions are not on the agenda at the moment, so it is strange that Russia would raise the issue.
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Quite a few people, including my colleague Peter Beaumont, are a little puzzled by the armed forces minister James Heappey’s assertion that Europe is now closer to war than it has been for 70 years. (See here.)
Peter writes:
The comments by James Heappey, the UK’s armed forces minister, to the BBC that Europe is closer to war than it has been for 70 years will be baffling to a number of countries that have seen full-blown conflicts in the past seven decades, or experienced Soviet aggression.
Among the wars that have occurred since the second world war are the wars in the Balkans in the 1990s, including the wars in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo, and the conflict in Cyprus – which saw a Turkish invasion in 1974 following a Greek Cypriot coup.
The large-scale interventions by Soviet forces in Hungary in 1956 and by Warsaw Pact forces in Czechoslovakia in 1968 both provoked large numbers of people to flee their respective countries.
Perhaps most puzzling of all is that Heapey seems to be discounting the war that has been ongoing in Ukraine for the past eight years.
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Reuters has a little more from the press conference. Zelenskiy has reacted to suggestions from Moscow and elsewhere that the temperature could be lowered if Ukraine dropped or postponed its joining of Nato:
Ukraine’s Zelenskiy says some leaders hint that Ukraine shouldn’t talk so much about joining Nato but this decision is our decision.
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Olaf Scholz says 'territorial integrity of Ukraine is not negotiable'
Some quotes, via my colleague Fran Lawther, from the press conference that’s followed the meeting between the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, and the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
Scholz said he and Zelenskiy had spoken about sanctions and the importance of preventative measures, adding:
There are no good reasons for the activities on the Ukrainian border. The sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine is not negotiable. We expect Russia to take clear steps to resolve the situation.
Zelenskiy, meanwhile, has said:
Ukraine’s security is the security of all of Europe
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A bit more here from the World at One’s interview with Vyacheslav Nikonov. He’s just warned that if Russia doesn’t receive a “positive response” to its security concerns, there will be “some technical response”, which will put the west “in the same position of danger”.
He said:
Russia is still waiting for a positive response to its security concerns. But still waiting … we will not wait forever. There will be some technical response, which will put the West in the same position of danger.
It’s also clear that the west is not prepared to introduce Ukraine into Nato in the next century, so why not have an agreement on that? As for the tactical nukes in western Europe, what is the point for for those nukes? We do not have our nukes on foreign soil.
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Vyacheslav Nikonov, first deputy chairman of the State Duma committee on international affairs, has said there is “nothing special” about Russian military exercises around Ukraine.
Nikonov, grandson of Vyacheslav Molotov, who concluded the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact with Nazi Germany on behalf of the Soviet Union, told BBC Radio 4’s World At One programme:
The connections between the two countries are very, very close. Both my grandmothers were born in Ukraine. This is true of almost any family, you know … I have friends and relatives there. That’s true for Ukrainians, for Russians and so on. So, these are the two very interconnected nations. It has got its sovereignty by the decision of the Russian government.
When asked about the large military buildup around Ukraine, Mr Nikonov added:
Well, first of all the information about the amassment of Russian troops on the border we get from the western sources so you must know better … As for Russia, Russian exercises are standard, regular, and there is nothing special about it.
(Via PA Media)
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Boris Johnson cut short his UK tour Monday to return to London as Liz Truss convened a COBR meeting to discus the UK’s consular response, reports the Guardian’s chief political correspondent, Jessica Elgot.
Foreign secretary Truss will consider whether to change advice to UK diplomats in the country, after it issued new guidance on Friday advising British citizens in Ukraine to leave immediately while commercial means are still available.
Speaking on a visit to Scotland, Johnson said he would be making immense diplomatic efforts over the coming days including liaising with US president Joe Biden. He said that Ukraine’s future membership of Nato could not be “bargained away” as part of Western leaders’ efforts.
I think it’s very important that we have a conversation, but what we can’t do is trade away the sovereign rights of the Ukrainians who aspire to Nato membership. That’s something that was a massive gain for our world. If you remember what happened in 1990, you had a Europe whole and free, countries could decide their own futures. We can’t bargain that away. It’s for the Ukrainian people.
Here are Lavrov’s quotes from his brief televised exchange with Putin:
“We have already warned more than once that we will not allow endless negotiations on questions that demand a solution today,” Lavrov said.
But as foreign minister, he said, “I must say there are always chances.”
He added: “It seems to me that our possibilities are far from exhausted... At this stage, I would suggest continuing and building them up.”
Russia’s defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, is now meeting with Putin.
He says the joint military drills in Belarus were ending. Those exercises, in a country that neighbours Ukraine, have been seen as one of the most overtly threatening elements of the Kremlin’s buildup of forces around Ukraine’s borders.
Shoigu also got the long table:
Kremlin pool photos don't do a great good job of reassuring people that Putin hasn't become an isolated leader liable to make reckless decisions. pic.twitter.com/GjkY2vkXyz
— Shaun Walker (@shaunwalker7) February 14, 2022
Russia's top diplomat advises Putin to continue talking
Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov has suggested to President Putin that Moscow continue along the diplomatic path in its efforts to extract security guarantees from the west.
Lavrov met Putin on Monday and said Moscow should continue dialogue with the west, even though responses from the European Union and the Nato military alliance had not been “satisfactory”.
Asked by Putin if it made sense to continue diplomatic efforts, Lavrov responded that possibilities for talks had not been exhausted and proposed to continue the negotiations.
Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov is getting the long-table treatment, according to my Moscow colleague, Andrew Roth.
As Lavrov gets long-tabled again, clear he's not at the Kremlin for an intimate chat but as part of a more formal rollout of Kremlin's response on its demands for security guarantees. https://t.co/z4CdGZXU5c pic.twitter.com/gPdQRtNieJ
— Andrew Roth (@Andrew__Roth) February 14, 2022
Dedicated readers will know that Putin has a thing for big tables.
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Athens is playing down the killing of two ethnic Greeks in the frontline region of eastern Ukraine as relevant to the Russia crisis but has said it will bolster its diplomatic presence in the area.
Greece’s foreign affairs ministry attributed “the double homicides” to a fight that broke out between a group of Greeks – all members of the region’s sizeable ethnic Greek community – and Ukrainian soldiers on Sunday.
“Three Ukrainian army soldiers who got into a fight with community members for an insignificant reason are responsible for the double homicides,” it said in a statement on Monday. “The minister of foreign affairs, Nikos Dendias, has requested to speak by phone with his Ukrainian counterpart to emphasise, once again, the need for the Greek community to be protected in Ukraine.”
The country is home to a large ethnic Greek community that traditionally has lived in the south-eastern Donbass region around the city of Mariupol.
The minority is estimated at around 100,000 people although in Athens officials also put the figure at almost twice that number.
Some analysts have suggested that in the event of a Russian invasion, Hellenic navy ships could be dispatched to evacuate the community by sea.
Earlier on Monday, Athens stepped up calls for Greek citizens in Ukraine to leave the country.
Athens has downsized its diplomatic mission in Kyiv but said Monday it would be bolstering its mission in Mariupol where most ethnic Greeks live.
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Parliamentarians from Russia’s ruling party have proposed a draft resolution to seek the foreign ministry’s view on whether to call for the recognition of two breakaway Ukrainian regions as independent.
The State Duma, Russia’s lower house, is due to discuss the proposal from the United Russia party later today. A final resolution would then be sent to President Vladimir Putin, according to the Reuters news agency.
Recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions – collectively known as the Donbass – would almost certainly further inflame tensions.
It would be seen as a death blow to the Minsk agreements that are considered vital to avoiding major hostilities.
More on the Minsk accords here:
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German troops arrive in Lithuania to reinforce numbers in Baltics
Reuters has this from Kaunas airport in Lituhania:
A German military aircraft carrying troop reinforcements landed in Lithuania on Monday, the first of several planned Nato deployments amid fears in the region about a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The A400M airplane carried around 70 soldiers of what is expected to grow to a 360-strong German deployment, which comes on top of existing Nato forces in the region, a spokesperson for the alliance’s enhanced forward presence battlegroup said.
The new deployments include reconnaissance and artillery troops and medics from units throughout Germany, as well as around 100 howitzer and other vehicles, with arrivals expected to continue throughout this week.
“It’s a strong signal that Germany is willing and capable of reinforcing the battlegroup immediately as needed,” Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Andrae, German commander of the Nato troops in Lithuania, told reporters.
“I am really happy to have the guys with me, and be ready for everything which (could) come up,” Andrae added. The added soldiers will stay as long as they are needed, he said.
Since 2017, Nato has deployed battlegroups in Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia as well as Poland, all sharing borders with Russia, in response to Moscow annexing the Crimea peninsula from Ukraine in 2014.
Totalling 5,000 soldiers, the battlegroups are led by Germany, Canada, Britain and the United States.
Britain is also preparing to reinforce the British-led Nato battlegroup in Estonia, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said last week.
German soldiers comprise about half of the 1,100-strong battlegroup already present in Lithuania, which includes troops from Belgium, the Czech Republic, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Norway.
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Amid concerns of a Russian attack, we we would like to hear from people living and working in Ukraine about the situation in the country.
What is the mood like at the moment? Are you making any plans in the event of a possible conflict?
Von Moskau erwarten wir dringend Zeichen der Deeskalation. Eine weitere militärische Aggression hätte sehr schwerwiegende Konsequenzen für Russland. Darin bin ich mir mit unseren Verbündeten absolut einig. Wir erleben eine sehr, sehr ernste Bedrohung des Friedens in Europa. (2/2)
— Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz (@Bundeskanzler) February 14, 2022
Latest words from Scholz as he prepares to meet the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy:
We urgently expect signs of de-escalation from Moscow. Further military aggression would have very serious consequences for Russia. I absolutely agree with our allies on that. We are witnessing a very, very serious threat to peace in Europe.
Ukraine has requested an urgent meeting with Russia and dozens of other European states to explain Moscow’s buildup of troops along the ex-Soviet state’s frontier, AFP reports.
The Ukrainian foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said late on Sunday that Russia had ignored Kyiv’s formal request to explain why Moscow had positioned more than 100,000 troops and advanced weapons around Ukraine.
The 1990 Vienna document requires the 57 members of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) to share information about their military forces and notify each other about major activities.
“Ukraine is convening a meeting with Russia and all member states in the next 48 hours to discuss the reinforcement and movement of Russian forces along our border,” he wrote on Facebook.
The US fears that Russia’s buildup of forces could lead to an invasion of Ukraine “any day”.
On Monday, Russian president Vladimir Putin’s spokesman did not comment on Kyiv’s request but reiterated Russia’s stance that Moscow was free to move troops across the country’s territory.
I would like to emphasise once again that we are talking about the movement of Russian troops on Russian territory,” spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, once again accusing Ukraine of ramping up tensions.
“Large-scale movements of Ukraine’s armed forces are also carried out in the border zone on Ukrainian territory, moreover, in the area that borders on the territory of the self-proclaimed republics, which leads to escalation of the situation”
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Russia ready to fire if foreign ships and submarines enter its waters, senior Russian military official says
A senior Russian military official said on Monday that Russia was ready to open fire on foreign ships and submarines that illegally enter its territorial waters, the Interfax news agency reported.
Any such decision would, however, be taken only at the “highest level”, Stanislav Gadzhimagomedov, deputy head of the main operational department of the general staff, was quoted as saying.
The comment came two days after Moscow said a Russian naval vessel had chased away a US submarine in Russian waters in the Pacific. The US denied it had carried out military operations in Russian territorial waters.
Tensions between the two countries are running high, with Washington warning that Russia could attack Ukraine at any time. Moscow denies any such intention, despite massing more than 100,000 troops near Ukraine’s borders, and has accused western governments of hysteria.
Interfax quoted Gadzhimagomedov as saying Russia was able to adequately counter the US fleet in the Black and Baltic Seas but did not have enough ships and plans to do so in the far east at the moment.
All of Russia’s military fleets have been carrying out exercises in recent weeks across vast areas including parts of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the Mediterranean. (Via Reuters)
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The Australian prime minister, Scott Morrison, has lashed out at Russian aggression on the Ukraine border, as Australian diplomatic staff evacuate from the embassy in Kyiv.
As tensions in the region heighten, Morrison said it was time for Australia to stand up to countries that bully Ukraine.
We denounce Russia’s bullying, coercion, intimidation and threats of violence against Ukraine, and we will always take steps to do that,” he told parliament.
“We look on these issues and these events with great concern, we support Ukraine’s sovereignty, we support their right to territorial borders, and that they not be imperilled.”
A senate estimates hearing was told 198 Australian citizens in the Ukraine have registered for consular assistance.
Travel advice for Australians in Ukraine has been to leave the country immediately. (Via Australian Associated Press.)
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The Kremlin on Monday said it did not view comments from Kyiv’s envoy to London as signalling an official change in Ukraine’s position on wanting to join Nato, but said it would significantly help address Russia’s security concerns if Kyiv did renounce its intention to become an alliance member.
Ukraine’s ambassador to Britain on Monday clarified earlier remarks about possibly dropping a bid for Nato membership, saying that the former Soviet republic would not be reconsidering its attempt to join the military alliance.
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Shaun Walker and Rachel Hall have further clarification from Ukraine after its ambassador to the UK, Vadym Prystaiko, appeared to suggest the country could drop its bid to join Nato to avoid war with Russia. (See 10am post.)
A spokesperson for the country’s foreign minister quickly quashed the remarks, claiming Prystaiko’s words had been taken out of context.
“Ambassador Prystaiko rightly noted in his interview that the prospect of Nato membership is established in the constitution of Ukraine, although Ukraine is currently not a member of Nato or any other security alliance,” wrote Oleg Nikolenko on Facebook.
“The key for us is the issue of security guarantees. Undoubtedly, the best such guarantee would be the alliance immediately accepting Ukraine. But the threats to Ukraine exist here and now, so the search for security guarantees becomes a fundamental and urgent task. At the same time, no decision can be made that contradicts the Ukrainian constitution.”
The full piece is here.
My colleague Mark Sweney has more on the tremors in the markets here.
Mounting fears of an imminent Russian attack on Ukraine triggered a global share sell-off on Monday, and prompted oil prices to hit a seven-year high.
European markets followed Asian shares sharply lower, with the UK’s FTSE 100 down 160 points, or 2%, at 7,501 in morning trading. Travel-related stocks were hardest hit, including the British Airways owner, IAG, which was the biggest faller on London’s blue-chip index, down 7%. The jet engine maker Rolls-Royce was down 4%, as only five companies on the FTSE 100 made it into positive territory.
Europe is closer to war than at any point over the past 70 years, a UK government minister has warned, as Russian troops amass on the borders of Ukraine and western leaders warn that an invasion could take place early this week.
The armed forces minister James Heappey told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme he feared “we are closer than we’ve been on this continent” to war “for 70 years”.
There’s 130,000 Russian troops around the borders of Ukraine, thousands more on amphibious shipping in the Black Sea and the Azov Sea.
All of the combat enablers are in place and my fear is that if all of this was just about a show to win leverage in diplomacy that doesn’t require the logistics, the fuel, the medical supplies, the bridging assets, the unglamorous stuff that actually makes an invasion force credible, but doesn’t attract headlines. Yet all of that is now in place too.
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Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK has rowed back on an apparent suggestion that the country could drop or delay its plans to join Nato to avoid war with Russia, PA Media reports.
Vadym Prystaiko said the constitutional commitment to joining Nato remained, having previously indicated the country would consider making “serious concessions” to avoid the risk of an invasion by Vladimir Putin’s forces.
Prystaiko said that while Ukraine was open to negotiations with Russia, the issue of its ambitions to join the alliance was not on the table.
On Sunday night on BBC 5 Live, he was asked whether Ukraine would contemplate dropping its aim of joining Nato. He said: “We might, especially if threatened like that, blackmailed like that and pushed to it.”
The comments raised eyebrows in Kyiv and Downing Street, and on Monday morning the diplomat returned to the broadcast studios to clarify his position.
“We are not a member of Nato right now and to avoid war we are ready for many concessions and that is what we are doing in our conversations with Russia,” he told BBC Breakfast.
“But it has nothing to do with Nato, which is enshrined in the constitution.”
Stressing that the commitment to joining Nato had not shifted, he pointed out that Ukraine would not be a member of the alliance by Wednesday – reportedly highlighted by US intelligence agencies as a potential day for an invasion.
“It’s not happening before Wednesday so we have to find the solution right now, we have to find the friends who will stay with us,” he said.
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The German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, is travelling to Kyiv today as fears grow over the possibility of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine, sending stock markets tumbling and the price of oil soaring.
Scholz has said that any Russian attack on Ukraine would be met with “tough sanctions that we have carefully prepared and which we can immediately put into force”.
The visit comes amid warnings from US intelligence that Russia has brought forward its invasion plans and could move troops across the border as soon as Wednesday, before the end of the Winter Olympics on 20 February.
Scholz and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy are expected to talk about how Germany could help stabilise Ukraine’s economy after fears of an imminent war took a toll on its currency.
Meanwhile, UK prime minister Boris Johnson has said he will hold further talks with world leaders to bring Russia “back from the brink” of war. His office did not say which world leaders the prime minister was hoping to talk to or where he plans to travel, but it was understood he is keen to engage with Nordic and Baltic countries.
A White House statement said Joe Biden made clear the US would “respond swiftly and decisively to any further Russian aggression” and the two leaders agreed on the need to continue pursuing diplomacy and deterrence. Biden has already ordered a near-total evacuation of the US embassy in Kyiv.
We’ll be covering all this here live throughout the day.