Voting in the first round of parliamentary elections is under way in mainland France. The last polling stations close at 8pm local time on Sunday.
Elections for the 577 seats in France’s national assembly are a two-round process. The shape of the new parliament will become clear only after the second round on 7 July.
Turnout
The turnout at 5pm CET in mainland France was 59.39% according to the interior ministry – a significant increase on the 39.42% who had voted at the same time in the last parliamentary elections in 2022. Polling has suggested that this parliamentary election may have the highest turnout in almost 30 years. The polling firm Elabe estimated that the final turnout would reach 69.5%.
National vote share
Estimations at 8pm CET will project the national vote share of parties. But this figure must be taken with caution. It will show the broad dynamic of support for each party across France, but it does not indicate the shape of a future parliament because the 577 different constituency votes will be defined by local context and candidates.
Polls have shown that, in terms of overall national vote share, the far-right National Rally could substantially increase its showing from the last parliament election, when it took just over 18%, to about 35%. The left alliance has been predicted to follow on about 27% and Emmanuel Macron’s centrists behind on about 21%.
Results
Constituency results will trickle in throughout Sunday evening. A small number of candidates may be elected in the first round. This will depend on voter turnout. To win a seat in the first round, a candidate must score more than 50% of the votes cast, but they must also reach 25% of the total number of registered voters in that constituency. A high turnout makes it easier to reach that threshold of 25%.
The far-right leader Marine Le Pen is hoping to be elected in her northern constituency in the first-round and hopes several of her outgoing MPs will do the same. The left is hoping to see some MPs elected on Sunday night, particularly in Paris and its eastern and northern outskirts.
Second-round runoffs
Most constituencies will go to a second round runoff on 7 July. The two top candidates will go through to the runoff, as well as any candidate who scores more than 12.5% of the total number of registered voters in that constituency. A high turnout would make that 12.5% threshold easier to reach.
There could be a significant number of constituencies facing a runoff between three or more candidates on 7 July. This could result in bartering on the left, traditional right and centre over whether one of the candidates should stand down in order not to split the vote against the far right. The bartering and tactical strategy among some parties will begin on Sunday night.
The final list of candidates who will stand in the second round runoff will be known on Tuesday evening.
