Spain’s socialist prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has described Sunday’s French election results as a warning. In an interview with the Cadena Ser radio network on Monday morning, he said:
The advance of the far right in France isn’t unconnected with what’s happening in other parts of the world – including in Spain – where we’re seeing how, directly or indirectly … the far right is advancing institutionally and in the opinion polls.
But Sánchez added that his own government was proof that progressive politics can still win out (his socialist party and its leftwing allies managed to secure a new term in office after the conservative People’s party finished first in last summer’s general election but failed to win enough support to take office – even with the backing of the far-right Vox party).
Like Macron, Sánchez also gambled by calling a snap poll in response to his party’s poor electoral showing (in regional and municipal elections) and framing it as a choice between progressive politics and the regressive politics of the far right.
But Sánchez’s gamble paid off – albeit at the cost of offering Catalan separatist parties a deeply controversial amnesty …
The Spanish PM added:
I don’t take the victory of the French far right as a given. I think everything will depend on the socialist party, on its strength and on the unity of the left. There’s also a lesson from Spain there … You always beat the far right by governing and bringing in progressive policies that, one-by-one, give the lie to all the fake news that it spreads.
Updated
France’s finance minister, Bruno Le Maire, has ruled out calling on voters to choose a far-left candidate from the France Unbowed (LFI) party – even if that was the only realistic option to stop a candidate from the far-right National Rally (RN) party.
The RN scored historic gains to win the first round of France’s parliamentary election, but whether it can reach an absolute majority in the National Assembly will depend on days of alliance-building before next week’s run-off vote.
Leaders from the left and Macron’s centrist bloc said they would withdraw their own candidates in districts where another candidate was better placed to beat the far right.
“LFI is a danger for the nation,” Le Maire told France Inter radio, adding that while he’d encourage voters to pick candidates from other leftwing parties in places where a centrist candidate pulled out of the race, he’d “never” call for voting LFI. (Via Reuters)
A bit here from Reuters on the financial reaction to the National Rally’s (RN) resounding win:
A longtime pariah for many in France, the RN is now closer to power than it has ever been. Le Pen has sought to clean up the image of a party known for racism and antisemitism, a tactic that has worked amid voter anger at Macron, the high cost of living and growing concerns over immigration.
An RN-led government would raise major questions over where the European Union was headed, given its resistance to further EU integration. Economists have also asked whether its spending plans are fully funded.
The euro touched a two-week high during Asian trading on Monday on market relief the RN had not done better.
I think it’s a slight ‘well, there were no surprises’, so there was a sense of relief there,” said Fiona Cincotta, senior markets analyst at City Index.
The gains by the far-right National Rally (RN) were described as staggering by pollsters and political analysts. The party is on track to become the dominant force in parliament, whether or not it reaches an absolute majority of 289 seats.
The party took more than 10m votes in the first round of parliament elections on Sunday night — more than double its 4.2m votes in the parliament elections only two years ago in 2022. It also considerably increased its showing from the 7.7m votes it took in European elections only a few weeks ago.
The RN’s vote share of 33% was even greater than the high score of Emmanuel Macron’s centrists in parliament in 2017 after Macron swept to power.
Meanwhile, Macron’s centrists are now facing what one pollster called “catastrophe”. They are relegated to third place – behind the left – and are set to lose more than half their seats, shrinking from 250 to less than 100. “It’s a defeat,” said Macron’s economy minister Bruno Le Maire, speaking of “a lot of sadness”.
A bit more – very bleak – analysis here from Mujtaba Rahman, managing director Europe of risk consultancy Eurasia Group. See his earlier comments here.
Whatever happens next Sunday, the *best case* scenario for France from here - a G7 member, permanent member of UN, a key member of & driving force in the EU & a leading force in the pro-Ukraine camp - is that it will be largely rudderless for a year 1/2
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) July 1, 2024
Macron has been overwhelmingly repudiated by voters only 2yr after winning a second term in the Elysée. His reputation & 7yr project - to prepare France & the EU for the economic and geopolitical challenges of the 21st century - arguably lies in ruins. Sad day for France & EU 2/2
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) July 1, 2024
Marine Le Pen’s victory has been applauded by other far-right leaders in Europe. Santiago Abascal, who heads the far-right Vox party across the border in Spain, called it a “victory of hope, freedom and security for the French people”, while André Ventura, leader of Portugal’s Chega party, hailed “a great victory”, adding: “Europe is waking up! Soon, it will be Portugal!”
Matteo Salvini, Italy’s deputy prime minister and the leader of the far-right League party, accused Macron of undemocratic behaviour after the French president called for a united front to head off Le Pen’s National Rally in the second round.
“Shameful Macron who, by calling for ‘blocs’ against the National Rally in the second round, behaves like any other [European Commission president Ursula] Von der Leyen and tries in every way to oppose a change expressed by millions of French people, in Paris and in Brussels,” he wrote on X.
A national vote share is extremely difficult to translate into a projected number of seats in the assemblée nationale. That’s because the final outcome will depend on the results in the constituencies. While pollsters issue seat estimates, France’s polling watchdog does not endorse them.
Here’s a guide to what comes next as voters gear up for the decisive second round of voting on 7 July, when France could decide to give control of its government to the far-right, anti-immigrant party for the first time in its history.
Read on below:
How did French and international media cover the first round of elections?
The French election took second place to an exclusive interview with UK Labour leader Keir Starmer on the Guardian’s front page but still featured in the second slot with the headline, “Far right takes lead in French election”.
Monday’s GUARDIAN: “Labour can stem populist threat by improving lives, says Starmer” #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/9OeSGr2YsK
— Allie Hodgkins-Brown (@AllieHBNews) June 30, 2024
The headline on French daily Le Figaro’s front page reads, “The battle is on between Bardella and Mélenchon” while the editorial below is headed, “French tragedy”.
Retrouvez la Une du «Figaro» du lundi 1er juillet.
— Le Figaro (@Le_Figaro) June 30, 2024
→ https://t.co/zLB9R2vEOu pic.twitter.com/UYU80pxIET
French daily Libération splashes on “After the shock: form the block”
Après le choc : FAIRE BLOC. C'est la une de @Libe lundi.
— Libération (@libe) June 30, 2024
#Législatives2024 pic.twitter.com/kHCrqfEKAw
The Wall Street Journal has a picture of a smiling Marine Le Pen and headlines, “Far Right Wins First Round of French Parliament Election”.
Here is an early look at the front page of The Wall Street Journal https://t.co/Rc1zRvNAtn pic.twitter.com/HQ5ohci5Dt
— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) July 1, 2024
The UK’s Daily Telegraph, writes “Le Pen: I have wiped out Macron”
📰 The front page of tomorrow's Daily Telegraph:
— The Telegraph (@Telegraph) June 30, 2024
'Le Pen: I have wiped out Macron' #TomorrowsPapersToday
Sign up for the Front Page newsletter👇https://t.co/x8AV4OoUh6 pic.twitter.com/Q6CsobnQBL
Britain’s Financial Times also features a large picture of Le Pen and the headline “Le Pen’s far right defeats Macron in first round of French snap election”.
Introducing #TomorrowsPapersToday from: #FT UK
— #TomorrowsPapersToday From TSC News (@channel_tsc) June 30, 2024
Le Pen’s far right defeats Macron
Check out https://t.co/NNc1XQqHEw for more newspapers. #buyanewspaper #buyapaper #pressfreedom #journalism pic.twitter.com/c1qcUQBtIE
National Rally wins 33% of vote – interior ministry
The far-right National Rally (RN) party and its allies reached 33% of the national popular vote in the first round of parliamentary elections, the interior ministry has said.
The leftwing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance came in second with 28% while President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Together coalition reached 20%, the ministry said.
The result marks the first time the RN has won more than 20% of the vote in a parliamentary election and puts the party within reach of forming the country’s first ever far-right government.
However the final results and the exact makeup of the 577-seat parliament are far from certain and the RN’s chances of winning power will depend on the political dealmaking made by its rivals over the coming days, ahead of Sunday’s second round.
In the past, the traditional right and leftwing parties have struck agreements to stand down candidates from the runoffs to avoid splitting the vote against the RN. But the tactical voting strategy known as the “republican front” to block the RN is less certain than ever.
The leader of the NFP, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, said the leftist alliance would withdraw all its candidates who came third in the first round, saying: “Our guideline is simple and clear: not a single more vote for the National Rally.”
In a written statement, Macron called on voters to rally behind candidates who are “clearly republican and democratic”.
But based on his recent declarations while that would include candidates representing the NFP’s more moderate leftwing parties it would exclude candidates from Mélenchon’s France Unbowed.
Updated
Some photos of the key players from the elections on Saturday:
How has the National Rally reacted to the result?
Marine Le Pen, leader of the RN, said President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist camp had been “almost wiped out”.
Speaking after the polls had closed, Le Pen said French people had shown “in an unambiguous vote … their wish to turn the page on seven years of the disdainful and corrosive [presidency]” of Macron.
Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old RN party president, said he was ready to be prime minister – if his party wins an absolute majority.
Je serai le garant de vos droits, de vos libertés, et de notre devise républicaine, celle qui unit tout le peuple de France dans une même promesse : liberté, égalité, fraternité.
— Jordan Bardella (@J_Bardella) June 30, 2024
Faites le choix de dirigeants qui vous aiment autant qu'ils aiment la France. #Législatives2024 pic.twitter.com/sgdBICcLtc
He said he wanted to be the “prime minister of all French”, respectful of the constitution in a “cohabitation” with President Emmanuel Macron, but “uncompromising about the policies we will implement”.
“The French people have handed down a clear verdict,” he said.
“Cohabitation” is the word used by the French when the presidency and the prime minister are in opposing camps.
Snap analysis from Mujtaba Rahman, managing director Europe of risk consultancy Eurasia Group, who says that on these numbers, “the far right will struggle to win a majority next Sunday” meaning the National Assembly is likely to become “raucous and close to ungovernable”.
He adds:
Le Pen’s failure to seize power is likely to prove an existential crisis delayed, rather than avoided. Welcome to the New France.
On these numbers, the far right will struggle to win a majority next Sunday. But France's new Assembly is likely to be a raucous & close to ungovernable place - with Le Pen’s RN the biggest group with wide powers of disruption & favourites for a majority in 1 years time 1/2
— Mujtaba Rahman (@Mij_Europe) June 30, 2024
A graph by BFMTV has the final results of the first round here, showing the National Rally with 33.14%, followed by the New Popular Front left-wing alliance on 27.99% and Macron’s centrist Together alliance on 20.76%.
Législatives: voici les résultats définitifs du premier tour pic.twitter.com/RQ1NS8rnhH
— BFMTV (@BFMTV) July 1, 2024
How did individual candidates do?
Sixty-five MPs won their seats outright in the first round, meaning they won more than 50% of the vote in their electorate; these included far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who was re-elected with 58% of the vote in Pas-de-Calais.
The Socialist leader, Olivier Faure, was also re-elected in Seine-et-Marne in the first round.
Other prominent figures to be re-elected included Sandrine Rousseau, an economist and “eco-feminist”; Manuel Bompard, a senior member of the hard-left France Unbowed party (LFI); and Mathilde Panot, LFI president.
Prime minister Gabriel Attal came first with 44% of votes in his electorate of Hauts-de-Seine, but will face a run off as will former prime minister Elisabeth Borne, who came second to a National Rally candidate in Calvados with just 29%.
In northern France, one of the most popular figures on the French left — the head of the Communist party, Fabien Roussel — was knocked out in the first round by the far-right National Rally candidate, Guillaume Florquin.
Former Socialist president Francois Hollande, who surprised voters by announcing his candidacy just two weeks ago, also faces a runoff but won the most votes with 38% in the seat of Corrèze.
Opening summary
Hello and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of the French election results with me, Helen Livingstone.
President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance and the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition have called for tactical voting after the far-right National Rally (RN) won the most votes in a first round of parliamentary elections.
Prime minister Gabriel Attal, who is likely to be forced to resign after the second round, warned that the far right was now at the “gates of power” and said the RN should not get a “single vote” in the second round.
“We have seven days to spare France from catastrophe,” said Raphael Glucksmann, a key figure in the left-wing alliance.
If the RN wins an absolute majority – still seen as a steep challenge – it will be the first time in French history that a far-right party has won a parliamentary election and formed a government and Macron will have to share power with the far-right. If the RN wins the most seats but not a majority, Macron could find himself with a hung parliament unable to govern the EU’s second biggest economy and its top military power.
The French president stunned and bewildered his own government and supporters with his decision this month to dissolve parliament and call snap elections after his centrist, pro-European grouping was trounced by the RN in EU elections.
As the first results came in on Sunday, he insisted in a statement on “the importance of this vote for all our compatriots and the desire to clarify the political situation”.
Here are the key developments so far:
Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally won about 34% of the vote in the first round of legislative elections, exit polls showed, putting it in reach of becoming the biggest political force in the French parliament.
The New Popular Front (NFP), a hastily assembled left-wing coalition, won about 29% of the vote, while President Emmanuel Macron’s Together alliance won between 20.5% and 23% according to exit polls.
Nevertheless, national estimates for the first round may not reflect the final breakdown of seats in the national assembly, which depends on races in constituencies.
Turnout was very high, with pollster Ipsos estimating that 65.8% of eligible voters cast ballots.
Speaking after polls closed, Le Pen said French people had shown “in an unambiguous vote … their wish to turn the page on seven years of the disdainful and corrosive [presidency]” of Macron.
Far-right figures from across Europe congratulated the National Rally.
Sixty-five MPs were elected in the first round – a high number. These included 38 MPs for the far-right National Rally and its alliance with Eric Ciotti of Les Républicains. That figure is more than double the number Le Pen had said she expected.
Pressure was mounting during the evening from left and centrist figures for tactical voting in the second round next Sunday.
Thousands took part in street demonstrations against the far right, including at the Place de la Republique in Paris, where barricades were set on fire and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the hard left France Unbowed party, addressed the crowd.
Gabriel Attal, the prime minister and a Macron ally, said “not one single vote” should go to the National Rally. “The stakes are clear: to prevent the National Rally from having an absolute majority,” he said.
Mélenchon said the left alliance would withdraw all its candidates who came third in the first round, saying: “Our guideline is simple and clear: not a single more vote for the National Rally.”
However it is not so clear that Macron’s centrist alliance will do the same. In a written statement, Macron called on voters to rally behind candidates who are “clearly republican and democratic”, which, based on his recent declarations, would include the NFP’s more moderate leftwing parties but exclude candidates from France Unbowed.
Attal had been due to sign a decree on Monday morning introducing new limits on unemployment benefits – a policy that had been attacked by the far right and the left – but decided to suspend the decree.
