We’re still a couple of weeks away from the first release of the College Football Playoff rankings, but we got our first look at the CFP odds from FiveThirtyEight this week.
I’ll admit it up front — I’m a big fan of FiveThirtyEight. It took me a while to get on board with analytics and numbers, but as soon as I embraced them as a softball coach, I’ve been fascinated with the story numbers can tell. Analytics don’t give you the whole picture, but they do provide insight on portions of the overall picture, and anyone who coaches these days should be using them in some form or fashion or risk falling behind the curve.
We’ve also been following the ESPN Playoff Predictor, and that’s all good and fun, but I feel like FiveThirtyEight has a better handle on this stuff since that’s right in the sweet spot of what the website is designed for.
So what teams have the best chance of making the CFP? Where is Ohio State who has probably been playing better than any team as of late? What about Georgia and Alabama, or the rest of the Big Ten teams in contention.
Here is a look at the teams that currently have a 3% or greater chance of making the College Football Playoff after Week 6 according to FiveThirtyEight.
19
No. 19 - Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-1)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
3%
Chances if win out
97%
18
No. 17 (tie) - Syracuse Orange (5-0)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
4%
Chances if win out
>99%
17
No. 17 (tie) - Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-1)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
4%
Chances if win out
75%
16
No. 15 (tie) - Utah Utes (4-2)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
5%
Chances if win out
40%
15
No. 15 (tie) - Kansas State Wildcats (5-1)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
5%
Chances if win out
96%
14
No. 14 - Oregon Ducks (5-1)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
9%
Chances if win out
72%
13
No. 13 - Penn State Nittany Lions (5-0)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
10%
Chances if win out
>99%
12
No. 11 (tie) - UCLA Bruins (6-0)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
11%
Chances if win out
95%
11
No. 11 (tie) - Texas Longhorns (4-2)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
11%
Chances if win out
74%
10
No. 10 - TCU Horned Frogs (5-0)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
13%
Chances if win out
>99%
9
No. 9 - Ole Miss Rebels (6-0)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
14%
Chances if win out
>99%
8
No. 8 - State (5-0)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
16%
Chances if win out
>99%
7
No. 7 - USC Trojans (6-0)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
19%
Chances if win out
96%
6
No. 6 - Tennessee Volunteers (6-0)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
20%
Chances if win out
>99%
5
No. 5 - Michigan Wolverines (6-0)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
28%
Chances if win out
>99%
4
No. 4 - Clemson Tigers (6-0)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
47%
Chances if win out
>99%
3
No. 3 - Alabama Crimson Tide (6-0)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
52%
Chances if win out
>99%
2
No. 2 - Georgia Bulldogs
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
53%
Chances if win out
>99%
1
No. 1 - Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
56%
Chances if win out
99%
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