As the dust settles around the most shocking transaction in NBA history—the Dallas Mavericks traded Luka Doncic, Maxi Kleber and Markieff Morris to the Los Angeles Lakers for Anthony Davis, Max Christie and a 2029 first-round pick—so many questions need answering to fully appreciate the immeasurable consequences of a trade this huge.
The biggest question is obvious: Why? Why would the Mavericks trade a 25-year-old walking triple-double with five All-NBA first-team selections? And if they were set on doing it, why wouldn’t Dallas shop him around to, at minimum, increase the quality of the Lakers’ trade package or find an even better return? Why, why, why would general manager Nico Harrison do any of this unprompted, as he admitted the franchise received no indication Doncic wanted to leave Dallas? (Doncic confirmed this Tuesday in his introductory Lakers news conference.)
There have been some answers—the Mavs not being fond of Doncic’s lack of conditioning is the most popular. But there are other more meaningful questions in regards to the on-court product for the teams and players involved.
Are the Mavericks bigger threats to win a championship now?
Harrison has, at every juncture, stated the move was made with the goal of winning an NBA championship—something he believes must be done with defense, hence why he so badly wanted Davis in return for the Mavs’ generational talent. Which makes this the most pressing question in Dallas as of now: Are the Mavericks better suited to win a championship right now?
To start, it’s hard to say they’re better off after the trade. The roster is more balanced now. Davis has been playing some ridiculous basketball, putting up 25.7 points and 11.9 rebounds along with 2.1 blocks per game. The latter number only scratches the surface of his defensive impact; Davis is defending 8.4 field goals per game, and opponents are shooting 8% below average on those shots. The Mavs currently rank 12th in the league in defensive rating and should shoot up into the top-10 pretty quickly. With Davis on the court, the starting lineup will feature only one subpar defender in Kyrie Irving.
In order to achieve that roster balance, the Mavericks gave up their margin for error. With Doncic, all Dallas needed to do was get to the playoffs and there would be a chance to make a deep run. Without Doncic, that margin is significantly slimmer. For any shot at an NBA Finals appearance, the Mavericks have to hope Irving and Davis, two players with injury-prone labels, can make it through the playoffs healthy (or even just get there unscathed). Then they have to hope Thompson won’t put up too many 0-for-10 shooting performances with his team’s back against the wall as he did in his last game with the Golden State Warriors. Then they have to hope role players accustomed to playing off the gravity of Doncic can adjust to the Irving-Davis combo on the fly.
With Doncic, the Mavs needed only a few things to break their way to feel like they had a shot at a championship, defensive shortcomings and all. Now it feels like they need everything to break their way, which means they aren’t in a better position to win a championship than before.
How will the Lakers juggle dual LeBron-Luka timelines?
As incredible a coup as this was for the Lakers, they almost certainly became a worse basketball team in the immediate future. L.A. ranked 21st in defensive rating entering Tuesday and just lost a Defensive Player of the Year candidate who cleaned up innumerable mistakes by his teammates every night. It’ll be fun to watch Doncic and LeBron James work together, and the two should provide enough offensive wizardry for the Lakers to be competitive. But another unexpected deep postseason push is harder to envision than it was with Davis roaming the paint.
The Lakers now have two timelines. The James timeline with an expectation the Lakers will try for a final title with The King by pushing all their trade chips in sooner rather than later. Then there’s the Doncic timeline, where the Lakers need to look beyond this season to adequately build a team around a generational superstar and not burn everything to win right this second.
It will be a fascinating push-pull to watch. James and Doncic are similar in that it’s best to surround them with two main player archetypes: shooting wings and springy centers. But players capable of helping L.A. win in James’s final years, who’ll also be worth keeping around for Doncic, are hard to find and harder to acquire.
How Los Angeles chooses to toe that line will be strongly indicative of the team’s short- and long-term approach for Doncic and James.
How long will it take for James and Doncic to mesh?
This is definitely the most appealing aspect of the transaction for neutral NBA fans—Doncic and James putting their collective basketball IQs together to pick apart defenses on the court. They’re two of the smartest basketball players alive. Doncic is averaging 28.1 points, 8.3 rebounds and 7.8 assists per game. James is putting up 24.0 points, 7.6 rebounds and 9.1 assists per night. The production between the two will enter mind-blowing territory.
Once they get adjusted, that is. Which … may take some time.
As good as the two stars are, they share an awful lot of similarities that make an on-court fit tricky. Both are best with the ball in their hands, with the pair boasting a usage rating of over 30% each this season. However, off the ball there are questions. Doncic is averaging 1.21 points per possession as a spot-up shooter, per NBA.com, which is good efficiency, but has spotted up on only 9% of his on-court possessions this season. James comes in at a subpar 0.99 points per possession as a spot-up shooter at an even lower frequency than Doncic.
Those numbers show neither player is particularly accustomed to playing off-ball and results can vary when they do. On top of that, Doncic and James turn the ball over a lot. James ranks fourth in the NBA in turnovers per game with 3.8, while his new running mate is right behind him with 3.4. Those numbers will go down for both players as a consequence of having to share the ball more, but could present a rocky runway.
It’s still a good bet James and Doncic will figure it out. But growing pains will be apparent and potentially frequent with how similar their preferred play styles are.
How can the Mavericks emerge as winners in this trade?
When the trade first broke, the utter shock at the names involved very quickly transitioned into heavy criticism of the Mavericks for “only” getting Davis, Christie and a 2029 first-round pick for Doncic. Dallas has been so completely lambasted that it’s fair to wonder if perhaps we’re all overreacting given Davis is an All-NBA-caliber player. What would it take, exactly, for the Mavericks to be the “winners” of this trade? Or at least not the complete and total losers they’re currently made out to be?
The bare minimum is winning a championship in the next year and a half. Harrison said he made this trade to compete for the next three or four years, but when sending out a franchise superstar the results have to be immediate. And even then—is one title enough justification to ship out a presumed decade of contention in Doncic? Is one ring enough to quench the rage of Mavericks fans who lost their beloved face of the franchise?
The latter question isn’t as important as the former, but the backlash from the fan base has been so strong it’s worth taking into consideration. If the Davis-Irving pairing proves so dominant it results in multiple championship runs, does it make this all worth it? The reasonable basketball mind suggests yes, because talents like Doncic sometimes manage only one championship appearance (much less a victory). But if the Mavs plummet as Doncic ascends into his prime, will it still be worth it?
At what point will the ends justify the means?
There isn’t a clear-cut answer, but the question will linger on the minds of Mavericks executives for a long time. Because that is now the chief aim of the entire organization—prove this wasn’t the massive, franchise-altering mistake everybody is calling it right now.
What will the Lakers do next?
The Mavs emerged from the trade with a more-or-less intact rotation that could use some fine-tuning but is mostly ready to rumble. The Lakers … not so much. Davis’s departure sapped the roster’s frontcourt depth, and even Christie’s absence will be felt as he was giving the Lakers 25.1 minutes per game at shooting guard.
The Lakers aren’t likely to contend this season, but at least one more move likely is on the horizon. Los Angeles entered Wednesday fifth in the West and 10 games over .500.
The trade market has some decent options. The Lakers’ top priority will be size, targeting the sort of big men who can set a hard screen and catch lobs from Doncic or James. There are lots of those players available, ranging from legit starters who are paid as such like Myles Turner and Nic Claxton to rotation guys with the skill set to thrive in L.A.’s new offense like Robert Williams III and Walker Kessler. If they strike out there, the buyout market could be appealing, but the Lakers are over the first tax apron and cannot sign any player whose previous deal paid them more than $12 million.
Who the Lakers land as their new primary center isn’t going to define the NBA title race this season, but it will be worth watching on two fronts. First, it will go a long way in determining how tough of an out they will be in the playoffs. Second, who Pelinka is trying to target and who he’s willing to give up to pull off a trade will be reflective of how he views the roster now with Doncic.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Five Questions After Shocking Luka Doncic–Anthony Davis Trade.
