Good morning.
Tens of millions of voters will cast their ballots on Tuesday in one of the tightest and most divided presidential elections in modern US history, with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump locked in a dead heat.
Recent polling has failed to identify a clear advantage for either candidate across the battleground states, but most experts agree that whoever wins Pennsylvania is likely to be ahead.
“If we win Pennsylvania, we win the whole ball of wax,” Trump said at a rally in Reading, south-east Pennsylvania. The Republican closed his campaign by launching insults at his opponents, while Harris finished by calling for her side to “get to work and get out the vote”.
Harris spent the final day of campaigning in Pennsylvania and finished in Philadelphia, alongside Lady Gaga and Oprah Winfrey. “We don’t get to sit this one out,” Winfrey said. “If we don’t show up tomorrow, it is entirely possible that we will not have the opportunity to ever cast a ballot again.”
Why is Pennsylvania so crucial? It has the most electoral votes – 19 – of the battleground states.
Presidential result is close to 50-50, election guru says
The leading forecaster Nate Silver released his final election forecast overnight, predicting that the candidates had a close to even shot at the top job.
Silver said that Harris won in 40,012 out of 80,000, or 50.015% of simulations run using his model. While polls on Monday gave Harris a slight lead in Michigan, she appeared even with Trump in Pennsylvania and other battleground states. Meanwhile, Trump maintained his lead in the betting markets, but the odds slightly narrowed.
Who is Silver? The forecaster called 49 out of 50 states in the 2008 election, as well as the outcome of the 2012 and 2020 races. Take it with a pinch of salt though – in 2016, he gave Trump only a 28.6% chance of becoming president.
US security agencies warn of Russian election disinformation blitz in swing states
Disinformation operations connected to Moscow have falsely claimed officials in swing states plan to fraudulently influence the US election, US security agencies have said.
“Russia is the most active threat,” the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the FBI and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency said on Monday.
“These efforts risk inciting violence, including against election officials,” they added, saying they expected the disinformation campaigns to escalate on election day and in the coming weeks. The agencies cited examples of fake videos purporting to show election fraud in Arizona and Pennsylvania.
Is Russia the only foreign actor likely to a threat? No – ODNI said Iran remained a “significant foreign influence threat to US elections”.
Stay up to date with The Stakes
With a nail-bitingly tense time ahead before we know what’s what when it comes to a seriously close presidential race, you can rely on The Stakes newsletter to keep you in the loop each morning. For rolling coverage, head to our liveblog.
In other election news …
The influential podcaster Joe Rogan has endorsed Donald Trump for president, saying he has been swayed by “the great and powerful Elon Musk”.
The Republican mega-donors Dick and Liz Uihlein have anonymously polled employees at their company Uline on who they will be voting for in the presidential election.
Trump should concede defeat and “go and play golf” in Scotland if he loses the election, the Reform UK leader and Trump ally, Nigel Farage, has said, adding that Harris should pardon him to reduce the threat of unrest.
Stat of the day: Republicans have a 90% chance of controlling the Senate and a 52% chance of a House majority
With all eyes on the presidential election, it can be easy to look past what is going on with the battle for House and the Senate – but for Democrats, the forecasts are looking even more worrying. As of Saturday evening, 538 gave the Republicans a 90% chance of regaining control of the Senate and a 52% chance of keeping their House majority.
Don’t miss this: ‘It is a little analog’: how the Associated Press calls election winners in the US
Have you ever wondered just how election winners get called – especially when not all the votes have been tallied? Election nerds, rejoice! The Guardian sat down with the Associated Press, on which, like many other newsrooms, it relies for its election results. The AP explains how it calls elections, how this process has changed, and how it has not, over the 148 years it has-been doing it.
If you fancy a quick round-down on exactly how it all works, from the paths to victory to when we will know who’s won, this explainer has you covered.
Climate check: Protesters scale back blockade of world’s biggest coal port
Environmental protesters are blockading the Port of Newcastle in Australia, which is thought to be the largest coal export operation in the world. The activists have reduced their protest – during which they will paddle into the harbour on kayaks to stop coal exports leaving the port – from 50 to 30 hours, after police intervention.
Last Thing: Who Deng? Edinburgh zoo’s pygmy hippo Haggis could be internet rival to Thailand’s
Edinburgh zoo, in Scotland, has announced the birth of a pygmy hippo named Haggis that could rival the popularity of Thailand’s Moo Deng. The zoo announced her arrival saying: “Moo Deng? Who deng? Introducing … Haggis.” But not before jokingly apologizing for pitting the baby hippos against each other, saying: “There is space in this world for two beautiful pygmy hippo divas and we should celebrate them all.”
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