THE SNP are on track to remain the largest party at Holyrood by a significant margin as Reform UK fracture the Unionist vote, new polling has found.
A poll conducted by Survation for the Holyrood Sources podcast, the first of 2025, put the SNP on 35% of the constituency vote – 13 points ahead of Labour on 22%.
The Scottish Tories were polling at 14%, just one point ahead of Reform UK on 13%. The LibDems posted and 8% vote share, the Greens 6%, and Alba 1%.
On the regional list, the SNP were on 31%, Labour 21%, the Tories 14%, Reform UK 13%, the LibDems 10%, the Greens 9%, and Alba 2%.
A seat projection from Professor John Curtice then put the SNP on 53 seats – 12 short of a majority in the 129-seat Scottish Parliament.
On the Unionist side, Labour would emerge as the largest party with 24 seats, it was predicted. The Tories and Reform UK would both have 15 MSPs, and the LibDems 12.
For a Unionist majority to take power, Labour would then have to accept political support from Reform UK and the Conservatives – which may prove toxic to their messaging.
Elsewhere, the Survation poll predicted that the SNP would be nine points ahead of Labour if a new General Election were held.
SNP depute leader at Westminster Pete Wishart said of the results: "This is quite extraordinary. 18 years and still out in front.
"With just over a year till the Holyrood election John Swinney has reinvigorated our party and set us up as winners again."
The news comes after a poll for The National from Find Out Now, the last of 2024, predicted largely similar figures – with the SNP on 54 seats instead of 53.
However, the Find Out Now poll found stronger support for the Greens and Alba, projecting a pro-independence majority of 15.
Fieldwork for the Survation poll was carried out via online interviews between January 7 and 13 2025, using a sample of 1024 Scottish residents aged 16 and above.
