Voters in Finland are gearing up to choose their next president in a crucial election that holds significant implications for the country's foreign and security policies. With the recent inclusion of Finland in NATO following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the two leading candidates, Alexander Stubb and Pekka Haavisto, are expected to steer the Nordic nation's course in dealing with the geopolitical challenges facing Europe.
Both Stubb, a former prime minister, and Haavisto, a former foreign minister, share similar views on Finland's foreign policy and security priorities. These include maintaining a tough stance towards Moscow, strengthening security ties with the United States, and providing assistance to Ukraine both militarily and at a civilian level. Finland's 1,340-kilometer (832-mile) border with Russia underscores the significance of these policies.
Unlike in most European countries, the Finnish president holds executive power in shaping foreign and security policy, particularly with regard to countries outside the European Union, such as the United States, Russia, and China. Additionally, the president commands the military, an essential role given Europe's current security environment and Finland's changed geopolitical situation following its NATO membership in April 2023, triggered by Russia's attack on Ukraine a year earlier.
Alexander Stubb, a member of the conservative National Coalition Party, emerged as the frontrunner in the first round of the election held on January 28, securing 27.2% of the votes. Haavisto, an independent candidate and former leader of the Green League, finished second with 25.8% of the votes. This is Haavisto's third attempt at the presidency.
In the final days of the campaign, minor differences between the candidates have come to light. One such difference relates to the transportation of NATO's nuclear weapons through Finland. Stubb expressed his support for the presence of nuclear weapons as part of deterrence and security, emphasizing that Finland had signed its NATO agreement without any limitations. However, both candidates agree that Finland does not seek to possess nuclear weapons.
Haavisto, on the other hand, does not favor the transport of nuclear arms through Finland, particularly during a crisis situation. As NATO's northeastern flank and the European Union's external border in the north, Finland plays a significant role in the alliance's security dynamics. Haavisto reiterates that there has been no need to transport nuclear weapons to or through Finland, and he believes that NATO's existing nuclear policies are well-established and do not require any adjustments.
The issue of border security has also featured prominently in the campaign. In November, Helsinki closed all official border crossings with Russia, alleging that Moscow was employing migrants as a part of 'hybrid warfare' to destabilize Finland. Both Stubb and Haavisto support this measure implemented by Prime Minister Petteri Orpo's center-right government.
As none of the candidates secured more than half of the votes in the first round, a runoff is required. Over 4 million eligible voters will cast their ballots in this decisive election. The winner will succeed President Sauli Niinistö, whose highly popular second six-year term comes to an end in March. It is expected that the Finnish head of state will remain above the emerging political disputes and focus on matters of national interest.
The outcome of this election will be closely watched by actors both within Finland and on the international stage. As Finland assumes a greater role in NATO and navigates its position vis-à-vis Russia, the newly elected president's vision for foreign and security policies will significantly shape the country's trajectory in the coming years.
