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ABC News
ABC News
National
political reporters Jake Evans and Tom Lowrey

Federal budget 2023: Winners and Losers

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has handed down his second budget, which looks good for the government, but what is in it for you?

Have a look at this cheat sheet of what's set to receive more funding — and who will be paying for it.

Winner: Aged care

The federal government will commit $11.3 billion to paying for a historic wage increase for aged care workers, which will come into effect from July.

The sector has struggled to find enough workers in part because of low pay rates.

As a result, the wages for a registered nurse in aged care will rise by more than $10,000 a year, and more than $7,500 for an enrolled nurse.

The federal government is also redirecting some of its aged care spending.

Treasury has forecast a $2.2 billion decrease in payments over the next three years on residential aged care due to an increasing preference of older people to remain in their homes.

It says that money is being spent on other aged care and health commitments.

Winner: Agriculture

A much-requested strengthening of Australia's biosecurity measures has been confirmed in the federal budget.

The government will provide an extra billion dollars over four years to strengthen the system, including greater regulation, surveillance and international engagement.

The cost of the measure will be partly offset through a "biosecurity protection levy" on Australian producers of agricultural, forestry and fishery products from the middle of next year, which is expected to raise about $150 million over three years.

Winner: Arts

The federal government is committing $286 million over five years to support the arts, most of which will fund Creative Australia to deliver the government's arts program and establish four new arts bodies: a First Nations-led body, Music Australia, Writers Australia and Creative Workplaces.

Another $112 million over four years will go to attracting big-budget screen productions to Australia by increasing the Location Offset rebate, providing more local employment and opportunities.

$535 million will be given to Australia's national collecting institutions, many of which have complained that they do not have enough money to preserve the materials in their collections.

The nine institutions that will receive the funding are the National Gallery of Australia, the National Library, the National Museum, the National Portrait Gallery, the National Film and Sound Archive, the National Archives, the National Maritime Museum, the Bundanon Trust and the Museum of Australian Democracy.

Winner: Child care

The government's $4.7 billion childcare subsidy changes will finally become a reality from July 1.

In short, it's good news for families with children in childcare and a household income below $530,000.

For families earning less than $80,000, the subsidy for their first child will climb to 90 per cent.

For those on more than $80,000, that subsidy will progressively fall based on their income.

Some families could see a lift in their subsidy of up to 20 per cent.

These changes were a key election policy for Labor, and will come into place more than a year after the Albanese government took office.

Winner: Cost of living

Inflation has been hitting households hard, and the budget forecasts it will remain higher than it should for at least another year.

The (possibly optimistic) outlook is that inflation falls back within the target range of between 2 and 3 per cent from mid-2024.

It's hoped that the government's energy bill relief plan — which will reduce eligible household bills by up to $500 — will directly push down inflation.

As inflation falls, wages are forecast to rise. Australians should be getting a real wage increase (where wages grow faster than inflation) from early next year, and that should continue for the next few years.

But the forecasts have been proved wrong plenty of times before.

Winner: Defence

Defence spending was already set to rise, but the federal government has added north of $11 billion more to the defence spend over the next four years as Australia's military undergoes its largest posture shift in decades.

A review of Australia's defence strategy ahead of the federal budget warned that the nation had entered the "missile age" and its military approach was no longer fit for purpose.

The funding will be used to rapidly acquire long-range missiles, upgrade bases and ports in Australia's north, and to expand the workforce, among other projects.

The federal government will also spend $4.5 billion over the next decade, and about half a billion each year ongoing to establish its nuclear-powered submarine program.

$7.8 billion of existing projects will also be scrapped, downsized or delayed to help pay for the reshaping of defence, including dumping plans to acquire hundreds of armoured troop transports.

Overall, Treasury has forecast defence spending to grow by $30 billion more in the next decade than it had previously expected.

Winner: Electricity bills

Up to $500 in energy bill relief will be paid out to pensioners, veterans, concession card holders and people on government support payments. 

Up to $650 will also be paid to small businesses, as the government seeks to neutralise price rises for this year and 2024.

The $1.5 billion package will benefit about 5.5 million households, with up to $350 in rebates available for Western Australia, the Northern Territory and the ACT, and up to $500 for the other states, in recognition that they face higher price rises.

A separate $1.3 billion fund will also be established to offer low-interest loans for home owners to make their homes more energy efficient. 

The federal government estimates upgrading a home's energy efficiency rating from 1 to 3 stars can cut bills by about 30 per cent, and upgrading from 3 to 5 stars can cut bills by a further 20 per cent.

Another $300 million will be provided to states and territories to make energy efficiency upgrades to social housing.

Warnings in last year's October budget of soaring power prices prompted a swift response from federal, state and territory governments, capping the price of coal and gas and committing to taking pressure off power bills.

Winner: Disaster responders

The federal government has promised to establish a National Messaging System to deliver instant emergency warnings to all mobile devices in a geographic area.

The messaging service will be operational by late next year.

It will also replace the voice-only communications systems used by police, paramedics and firefighters, so that states are all using the same system and can communicate across borders, as well as be able to share videos and location information with each other. 

Winner: Emissions reduction

$450 million will go towards helping the country's largest industrial emitters, who are part of the revamped Safeguard Mechanism, make investments that help them reduce their emissions.

From July, that sector will be required to cut or offset their emissions by almost 5 per cent each year to 2030.

And $2 billion has been set aside to help drive the development of a clean hydrogen industry in Australia — but details are a bit scant on exactly how that will work.

$83 million will be spent over four years creating a new 'Net Zero Authority', aimed at helping workers transition out of heavy-emitting industries.

Other sectors are also being given financial support to reduce their emissions, like the resources and transport sectors.

Winner: Environment

There's some new funding for the environment in this year's budget.

There's a $355 million dollar funding boost, over four years, for Commonwealth national parks and marine reserves.

That includes roughly $90 million to improve basic water, sewerage and electricity services for the Mutitjulu community (the traditional owners of the Uluru-Kata Tjuta national park).

$163 million will go towards the Australian Institute of Marine Science over four years, and $43 million will be provided to AIMS each year ongoing, which will help it put on more staff and build up its science and technology capabilities.

$121 million will be spent over four years setting up the new Environment Protection Australia agency, which aims to strengthen enforcement of federal environmental laws.

And there is $51 million in the budget to set up "Environment Information Australia", which the government wants to become a new "authoritative" source of high-quality environmental information.

There's also about $104 million for a review of the Murray Darling Basin Plan (which the government is legally required to do), and $45 million for the government to work with basin communities on the plan.

Loser: Gas industry

The government will extract an additional $2.4 billion over the forward estimates from oil and gas companies by making changes to the Petroleum Rent Resource Tax.

The PRRT acts like a profit tax on offshore projects, but it was not designed for LNG projects, and the government says its changes will make the system fairer.

Its adjustments will limit how much companies can deduct from their assessable income, fast-tracking tax revenue that was not due to be collected until the 2030s.

It is a relatively small lift compared to recent changes in some other countries, such as the United Kingdom's windfall profits tax on the industry.

The federal government will need to pass legislation to effect the change, which will require either the support of the Coalition or the Greens and crossbenchers to succeed.

The industry's peak organisation, the Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association, says the change strikes the right balance and has urged the Opposition to agree to the reforms.

Winner: General practitioners

The bulk-billing incentive for GPs will be tripled for the most common consultations with children under 16, pensioners and other Commonwealth concession card holders.

The federal government wants to arrest the alarming decline in bulk-billing rates in recent months and years, which has led to more people avoiding GPs and sometimes ending up in the already overwhelmed hospital system.

The higher bulk-billing incentive will support GPs to bulk-bill around 11.6 million Australians who are eligible, so that they can see a doctor without any out-of-pocket expense.

That incentive will be higher in regional and rural areas, and will cost the government $3.5 billion over five years.

The federal government will also provide hundreds of millions more to set up eight new Medicare Urgent Care Clinics, which will bulk-bill and remain open for longer hours for people who need urgent care.

Winner: Home owners

Low-interest loans will be offered to households looking to improve their energy efficiency.

110,000 loans will be offered, aimed at encouraging households to invest in more efficient appliances or improve their energy efficiency in other ways.

The loans can go towards upgrades like double-glazing windows or adding solar panels.

It's similar to a range of schemes offered by various state and territory governments, and $1 billion in funding has been set aside to establish it.

Another $300 million will go towards energy efficiency upgrades in social housing.

Winner: Indigenous communities

Over five years, $1.9 billion will be spent on measures to improve the lives and economic opportunities available to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.

More than half a billion dollars of that funding will go towards improving cancer outcomes for First Nations people and expanding the Tackling Indigenous Smoking program.

Another $410 million will pay for more remote housing in the Northern Territory, as well as housing works in Wreck Bay Village and Jervis Bay.

It also includes $150 million for Indigenous education and languages, $46 million to Aboriginal Community Controlled Organisations to provide skills training and funding to continue the Indigenous ranger program.

Separately, an additional $250 million will be spent improving community safety, services, education and job creation in Central Australia.

The federal government has committed More than $360 million over three years to deliver the Indigenous Voice to Parliament referendum, including money for civics campaigns and an increase of $10.5 million for more mental health supports for First Nations people during the referendum. 

And the federal government will appoint an interim First Nations Aged Care Commissioner, at a cost of $1.7 million.

Loser: International students

The rules for international students are being significantly tightened as part of an overhaul to immigration.

From July 1, student visa holders will be again restricted to working a maximum of 48 hours per fortnight, after the cap on working hours was lifted during the pandemic.

Students working in aged care will be exempt from the restrictions, but only until the end of the year.

The rules for who will be allowed to study on a student visa will also be changed, as Home Affairs Minister Clare O'Neil says too many people are using the visa as a pathway to permanent residency, rather than getting an education.

The federal government earlier this month announced an increase to the minimum pay threshold to be considered for a permanent skilled worker visa, meaning fewer people would qualify for the program, after it was paused for a decade.

However the minister has flagged "simpler, faster pathways" will be introduced to attract students hoping to study in-demand skills, and new graduates will be provided an extra two years of post-study work rights for certain degrees. 

Winner: JobSeeker recipients

The JobSeeker rate will permanently increase for all recipients by $40 a fortnight.

That increase falls short of recommendations by unions, business and social services experts made through the Economic Inequality taskforce, that the JobSeeker rate be raised to 90 per cent of the aged pension.

But the higher rate for older people, which previously applied to recipients over 60 who had received JobSeeker for 9 months or longer, will now apply for recipients over 55. 

It means people aged 55 to 59 will receive an additional $92.10 per fortnight above what they receive today.

Austudy and Youth Allowance payments will also be lifted by $40 a fortnight, overall benefiting $1.1 million people receiving income support.

Winner: Medication

Hundreds of medications listed on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme will have their costs effectively halved, in a staged approach to begin in September.

The change works by allowing people with a chronic illness to buy two months' worth of supply with a single script, saving them a co-payment each time.

The first 100 medications to be listed include some of the most common medicine for type 2 diabetes, depression, reflux, ulcerative colitis, heart failure, high cholesterol, asthma and rheumatoid arthritis. 

The benefit will be provided for 320 medicines in total, the last of which will be included by September next year.

The measure will actually save the government $1.2 billion over the next four years, by cutting the number of dispensing fees that will be paid to pharmacists — but Health Minister Mark Butler says all of that money will be reinvested in community pharmacies.

The changes are furiously opposed by the Pharmacy Guild, which is warning of medication shortages and damage to the business model of many pharmacies.

Loser: New migrants

The cost to apply for a visa will rise by 6 per cent, meaning it will cost more to apply for already expensive temporary and permanent residencies.

It will raise the government an extra $660 million over the forward estimates, which will be used to improve visa processing times and cut down on immigration backlogs.

For people immigrating on working holiday visas and other short-stay visas the rise will be even bigger, amounting to a total increase of 21 per cent on application fees.

Treasury has lifted its expectations of how quickly the population is growing, which is largely driven by immigration.

Population growth is expected to be 2 per cent by the end of this financial year, and 1.7 per cent in the next financial year, amounting to an extra 715,000 people over the two years.

But that temporary lift will fall again in following years, with migration forecast to return to normal levels of about 235,000 each year.

Winner: Politicians

Federal MPs are set to grow their offices, with funding in the budget for more staff.

Every federal MP will be given funding for a new staff member in their electorate office.

A number of crossbench MPs have been campaigning for an increase in staff numbers, after their staff allocations were cut back by the Albanese Government.

The new staff, plus some changes to travel entitlements, will cost $40 million a year.

There's also $15 million in the budget for renovations to Parliament House.

Winner: Treasury

The budget is forecasting a $4 billion surplus for 2022-23, which if it eventuates would be the first since 2007-08.

The government's coffers are being hit with a wave of unexpected revenue, primarily from higher-than-forecast coal, gas and iron ore prices, and higher income tax revenue thanks to low unemployment rates.

All up, over the next four years the government is forecast to collect $143 billion more than what was predicted in the March budget last year.

The government insists most of it will be banked — 82 per cent will be used to improve the budget bottom line. 

Winner: The Pacific

The government is spending $1.9 billion over five years on a bunch of different programs helping strengthen ties with Pacific countries.

$1.4 billion will go towards building Australia's defence and security presence across the Pacific.

$370 million will be spent across four years expanding the Pacific Australia Mobility Scheme, which provides seasonal working visas for people from Pacific countries.

And $114 million will go towards initiatives like humanitarian relief and disaster preparedness.

No Change: NDIS

The NDIS is one of the fastest-growing areas of spending in the budget.

And it will continue to grow over the years ahead, but the federal government is trying to contain that growth.

From mid-2026, the government wants to try to limit its growth to no more than 8 per cent a year.

Treasury forecasts suggest it won't meet that target, but it will save about $59 billion over the next decade compared to its October forecast.

But the scheme remains demand-driven, meaning it will be as large as it needs to be to service its participants.

Loser: Travellers

Anyone flying (or cruising) out of Australia is set to be hit with an increased charge to do so.

From July 1 next year, the 'Passenger Movement Charge' is going up from $60 to $70.

The government argues the fee hasn't been lifted since 2017, and the extra $10 is broadly in line with inflation.

Winner: Single parents

The cut-off for the single parenting payment will be lifted from 8 to 14, mostly reversing a cut made under the Gillard and Howard governments more than a decade ago.

Previously, single parents were required to apply for JobSeeker once their youngest dependent child reached 8 years of age.

The change will mean those parents will receive an additional $176.90 a fortnight if they are on the base rate, amounting to $922.10 per fortnight in total.

The lift will benefit about 57,000 parents, overwhelmingly women, at a cost of $1.9 billion over four years.

Winner: Spies

Australia's foreign intelligence agency, the Australian Secret Intelligence Service, is getting a big funding boost.

It will receive about $470 million over the next four years to "modernise" the agency, and an extra $185 million per year ongoing.

It's a secretive business, so we'll never know what this money gets spent on.

Australia's diplomats have also long complained about funding shortfalls, and this budget will provide a funding boost of about $457 million over four years to the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

Winner: Small business

A bonus tax discount to help small businesses electrify will be offered to all businesses with an annual turnover of less than $50 million.

Those small businesses will be able to claim 20 per cent of spending that supports electrification or more efficient energy use on their taxes, including electrified heating and cooling, more efficient white goods, induction cooktops and installing batteries and heat pumps.

The maximum that can be claimed through the 'Energy Incentive' will be $20,000, meaning up to $100,000 worth of spending will be eligible for the incentive.

The measure is expected to help up to 3.8 million small and medium-sized businesses, at a cost of $314 million to the government over the next four years.

The $20,000 instant asset write-off for small businesses will continue until the middle of next year, allowing businesses to deduct the full cost of assets up to that price that were installed or ready for use before that date.

Winner: Community services

Mental health, disability, domestic violence and homelessness services will receive $4 billion in additional funding in the coming four years, over and above the normal increases in the budget brought by indexation.

The federal government is boosting funding by changing the way these services receive money, and while the total budget commitment is substantial, it will be spread across a large range of community service providers.

Currently, wage funding for organisations is calculated using a five-year average, but the government will revise that to only consider wages from the previous year, and by doing so encourage faster wages growth.

The change is on top of a $560 million "down payment" made to community organisations in October to help them remain viable.

It will benefit programs like the Medicare Benefits Schedule, Commonwealth Home Support, First Nations Health, Hearing Services and Community Legal Services among several others.

The Australian Council of Social Service has said the change will ensure real funding for those organisations doesn't erode over time, and that it would benefit women in the workforce especially, as they dominate the sector.

An additional $67.5 million will be given to state and territory homelessness services in the coming financial year as the government agrees to a one-year extension of the National Housing and Homelessness Agreement, while negotiations with the states continues.

Winner: Sport

There's a decent chunk of money in the budget to start building ahead of the 2032 Brisbane Olympics.

$3.4 billion will be spent over the next 10 years on the games, made up of $2.5 billion on the Brisbane Arena, and $935 million on 16 other new or upgraded venues.

Most of it will be spent later in this decade — only $1 billion or so is covered in the four years spelled out in this budget.

$240 million will be directed towards a new stadium on Hobart's waterfront.

The Macquarie Point stadium was a deal-breaker for the AFL in bringing a 19th team to Tasmania, and the federal government's contribution is on top of $375 million from the Tasmanian government.

It's not due to be completed until 2029.

The project is not without controversy, opposed by some as costing too much while funding could be directed to other priorities. 

Winner: Superannuation

A fundamental change to superannuation payments will help to ensure more people get paid the superannuation they are owed, and boost retirement incomes for young workers by thousands of dollars.

From July 2026 employers will be required to pay super at payday, rather than quarterly, gaining workers more money through compounding interest and making it harder for businesses to dodge paying super.

The federal government estimates a 25-year-old earning average wages will be about $6,000 better off at retirement thanks to the change.

However, a small number of the nation's biggest account holders will not be counting themselves as winners, as the government doubles the tax rate for super accounts over $3 million.

From the 2025 financial year future earnings on super balances over $3 million will be taxed at a 30 per cent rate, which the government expects to affect about 80,000 people.

That measure is expected to eventually recover an additional $2 billion a year for the government.

No Change: Taxpayers

There is no change to the planned third tranche of tax cuts legislated to come into effect next year.

The stage-three tax cut will abolish the 37 per cent tax bracket, lower the 32.5 per cent bracket to 30 per cent and raise the threshold for the top tax bracket from $180,001 to $200,001.

It is expected to cost the budget $69 billion over the next four years.

The planned cuts have endured heavy lobbying to be dumped or wound back, in particular, because the greatest benefit will go to wealthier Australians, but the federal government has maintained it has no plan to abandon the cut.

The primary justification for the tax cut is to address what is known as "bracket creep".

Because income tax is not adjusted for inflation, more workers fall into higher tax brackets over time as their incomes rise.

The first two tranches, which targeted lower- and middle-income earners, came into effect under the previous government.

But taxpayers are doing more heavy lifting, with the government revising up income tax contributions by $15 billion over the next financial year, and $74 billion over five years.

Loser: Truckies

The heavy vehicle road user charge is being raised by 6 per cent a year for the next three years from 27.2 cents per litre of diesel to 32.4 cents by 2025-26.

The change is a significant money-spinner for the government, saving $1.1 billion over four years through reductions in the cost of the fuel tax credit.

The decision to lift the charge was made jointly by federal, state and territory transport ministers.

The charge is typically used to pay for road maintenance and repair.

Loser: Recreational vaping

Vapers are big losers, but in a win for public health, disposable vapes will be banned and others will be heavily regulated and only accessible through pharmacies with a prescription.

The health minister is going to war on vaping in an effort to stamp out a "new generation" of nicotine addicts, but will make it easier for people who want to use vapes to help quit smoking to get prescriptions through a doctor, rather than the Therapeutic Goods Administration.

$234 million will be spent over four years in an attempt to get people off vaping, including $63 million for a public health campaign, $30 million towards support programs to help Australians quit, and an additional $140 million to extend the Tackling Indigenous Smoking program.

Loser: Smokers

Australia already imposed some of the highest taxes on tobacco products of any nation, but the federal government wants to double down on reforms it introduced a decade ago to further curb smoking rates.

The tobacco excise will be lifted by an additional 5 per cent each year for three years, as Health Minister Mark Butler says the increase has started to lag behind inflation, and he did not want to see the price of cigarettes become "more attractive".

The excise on a packet of 20 cigarettes is currently about $23.29 and is typically indexed twice a year.

The excise increase will raise an additional $3.3 billion from smokers over four years.

Some of that money will be reinvested into health, including a public health campaign on tobacco.

The federal government already moved late last year to strengthen its anti-smoking laws, including introducing "unattractive" cigarette colours, "smoking kills" messages on the side of cigarettes and extending bans on additives and flavours, including menthol.

Winner: Women

Eligibility rules for the single parenting payment are changing, which will largely benefit women.

The single parenting payment lifts eligibility to include single parents with a child up to 14 years of age, an increase from the current cut-off at 8 years.

Ninety-one per cent of recipients are women.

While eligibility for the payment is being expanded, the rate is not being increased. 

There is also $327 million being directed towards women's safety, including $160 million for support for frontline services in partnership with state and territory governments.

$194 million will go towards a range of Indigenous women's safety programs.

But there isn't much new money in the budget for women's health.

Spending is climbing on research and data collection, but there is no new funding for access to contraception and abortion - which are two key benchmarks of the national women's health strategy.

Winner: Young people

Young people on income support payments will receive a much-needed boost, as Austudy and Youth Allowance are both lifted by $40 a fortnight.

The maximum rate of Commonwealth Rent Assistance will also be lifted by 15 per cent, costing the government about $700 million a year.

But there is not much more targeted support for young people listed in this budget.

There is no new money for TAFE and there's a "TBC" on university funding and student loan support as the government progresses its Universities Accord.

There is, however, $127.3 million in funding over the next four years for an additional 4,000 Commonwealth-supported places at universities for courses that support the nuclear-powered submarine program, including STEM and management disciplines.

Winner: Ukraine

Another $200 million will be spent over two years on additional support for Ukraine in the ongoing war with Russia.

The funding will go towards additional Bushmaster vehicles, drones, artillery ammunition and training for Ukrainian soldiers.

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