It’s officially summertime, which means NFL training camps are in full swing and important depth chart battles have begun. With the fantasy football draft season here, you need the 411 on which camp battles are the most important to monitor across the NFL.
In an effort to help educate you, the fantasy football fanatic, I’ll be researching the most important camp competitions at each of the four major offensive skill positions ahead of 2024 fantasy drafts: Quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends.
In this article, I’ll focus on the tight ends.
While there aren’t a lot of “battles” at the position, per se, several teams will have multiple players who will be vying for playing time and, of course, those all-important targets. I’ve also done some digging on how often the associated teams ran multiple tight ends sets last season, as well as how often players ran routes as opposed to blocked.
In order to see what Vegas thinks about some of these notable competitions, I’ve also included receiving yardage leader odds for some players, according to DraftKings.
Raiders: Brock Bowers vs. Michael Mayer
Bowers was the Raiders top pick in the 2024 NFL draft, so the assumption is that he’ll open as the Week 1 starter. He’s at +4000 to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, and he’s at +12000 in terms of being the yardage leader. He’s also being drafted, on average, at 108.3. On the flip side, Mayer isn’t being drafted in most leagues. The Raiders were 26th in 12 personnel last season, with Mayer and Austin Hooper sharing the duties. The choice in this offense is simple, at least on the surface, so Bowers looks like a cinch starter.
Bears: Cole Kmet vs. Gerald Everett
Kmet was the Bears “featured” tight end last season, seeing 508 pass snaps and 88 targets which equated to a TE8 finish. The team ran 12 personnel (two tight ends on the field) 258 times, which ranked ninth in the league, but Kmet saw 80% of the tight end targets. That total figures to decline this year, however, as Everett is a better pass catcher than Robert Tonyan or Marcedes Lewis. The biggest concern for Kmet, however, is the addition of Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze. With these new wideouts, the Bears will run more 11 personnel (one running back, one tight, three wide receivers) than last season (24th in the NFL). Unless injuries occur, Kmet will find it tough to duplicate his 2023 totals. He's still worth a look in drafts (146.3 ADP), but Everett is no longer worth even a late-rounder.
Saints: Taysom Hill vs. Juwan Johnson
Johnson was slated to be a potential fantasy sleeper after a strong finish to last season, but a foot injury has landed him on the active/PUP list. That has lifted Hill to a high-end TE2 in drafts. He’s being picked at 162.4 based on NFFC ADP, seven spots higher than Johnson. The Saints ran a lot of 12 personnel last season, ranking fifth in the NFL, and Johnson saw 45% of the tight end targets. Obviously, questions about his status for the start of the year have dropped him down rank lists. And while Hill is now the clear top option at the position in terms of New Orleans tight ends, Johnson is still worth a late flier in larger leagues.
Packers: Luke Musgrave vs. Tucker Kraft
The Packers ran 12 personnel 344 times last season, which ranked as the third-most in the NFL. That might decline though, as Kraft is dealing with a pectoral injury and has landed on the PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) list. Green Bay is also loaded at wide receiver, with Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks all competing for targets. That could mean more 11 personnel (Green Bay was 21st last year). Regardless, Musgrave seems to have the inside track on the starting tight end job, making him a deep sleeper in fantasy drafts. His ADP is at 157.3 based on NFFC data. As for Kraft, he won’t be picked in many drafts while on PUP … his 271.0 ADP is proof of that status.
Commanders: Zach Ertz vs. Ben Sinnott
This might be the most notable actual “battle” when it comes to fantasy football among the tight ends. Ertz, who has been a fantasy star in the past, will compete with the rookie Sinnott for opportunities. The veteran has missed a combined 17 games over the last two years due to injuries, and he’ll turn 34 in November. On the flip side, Sinnott has a lot of upside and is actually being picked around 20 spots higher based on NFFC data. I know rookie tight ends typically don’t make an impact (Sam LaPorta is a unicorn), but I’d rather take a shot on Sinnott than an aging, less-than-durable Ertz in the late rounds.
Giants: Daniel Bellinger vs. Theo Johnson
The retirement of Darren Waller has opened the door for Bellinger and Johnson to battle for the top spot on the tight end depth chart. Vegas isn’t expecting much from the latter, who is at +20000 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. ADP data doesn’t expect much either, as Bellinger is at 280.0 overall and Johnson isn’t being picked in most drafts. If I had to choose one, it would be Bellinger. When you consider that the G-Men were 28th in tight end targets and seventh in running 11 personnel last season, not to mention the addition of rookie Malik Nabers, I wouldn’t expect to see much from Bellinger or Johnson this season.
Chargers: Hayden Hurst vs. Will Dissly vs. Donald Parkham Jr.
The new Chargers offense under coordinator Greg Roman can be tight end friendly, which we saw in San Francisco with Vernon Davis and in Baltimore with Mark Andrews. The Bolts don’t have that level of tight end on their roster. Not even close. Hurst has played for three teams in the last three years, and neither Dissly nor Parham Jr. has been regular fantasy starters. That’s obvious in the NFFC ADP data, which has Hurst coming off the board first … at 292.1. At the end of the day, this will be a committee that is better off avoided.
Vikings: Johnny Mundt vs. Josh Oliver vs. Robert Tonyan
The Vikings are expected to be without fantasy superstar T.J. Hockenson at the start of this season, as he continues to recover from a torn ACL. In two games without him at the end of 2023, Mundt played 33 more snaps and averaged four more targets than Oliver. He is also leading the way in terms of ADP, but he’s at an uninspiring 286.9. Of course, that is a small sample size, and it came with Nick Mullens under center. The Vikings also added Tonyan, who could push past the incumbents with a good camp. None of the trio has long-term value of course, but the eventual starter (or main pass catcher) could push for matchup based value in redrafts and a cheap option in some daily fantasy action.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Fantasy Football Training Camp Battles: Tight Ends.
