Fantasy football is driven by data, and reviewing key utilization statistics from Week 6 will help us evaluate what might be ahead in the foreseeable future.
Week 6 was full of big-time utilization with low-yardage outputs, such as Josh Jacobs‘ 30 plays creating only 93 yards and Alexander Mattison going for 72 yards on 18 rushes and seven targets. Alvin Kamara and Isiah Pacheco were in similar situations, whereas at least D’Andre Swift, Kenneth Walker III, and Travis Etienne all found the end zone.
Utilization trends are taking full shape, and fantasy gamers are entering the heart of bye weeks, so any extra piece of valuable info can make the difference between a win and loss.
10
RB Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers
Carolina heads into its bye week and gives Miles Sanders (shoulder) a chance to get healthy, but the admirable play of Chuba Hubbard in Week 6 presents the question of whether his workload will remain in the double-digit utilization territory after the time off. He has had at least 11 plays come his way in each of the last three games, and the workload went to 20 with Sanders sitting out vs. Miami. Hubbard had more than seven utilizations in only one of the first three games and wasn’t particularly effective outside of Week 7, so this could go either way.
9
TE Michael Mayer, Las Vegas Raiders
The rookie has seen a small uptick in his involvement of late, and Week 6’s six-target, five-catch, 75-yarder may be a coming-out party of sorts. Mayer saw 57 snaps (81 percent) to Austin Hooper‘s 24 (34 percent) — a much wider gap than the 66-to-56 percent breakdown from Week 5. Mayer remains extremely risky in a low-volume passing game with a shaky quarterback situation and three capable targets ahead of him on any given play. Don’t get too worked up over Mayer’s Week 6 showing.
8
RB Craig Reynolds, Detroit Lions
There’s a chance rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring) returns this week, though one should expect him to be on a pitch count. David Montgomery (ribs) will miss some action, making Reynolds the next man up. The matchup with Baltimore is far from ideal, but any running back behind this elite offensive line in a run-minded system needs to be a consideration — even more so with six teams on vacation. Reynolds is a bit of a try-hard if anything, and his Week 6 showing speaks to his lack of athleticism, but touches are touches during a week with so few options. Gibbs’ return shouldn’t cut into Reynold’s action enough to prevent him from being a desperation TD flier.
7
Miami Dolphins running backs
Two quick thoughts: Salvon Ahmed‘s 11 utilizations and 12.4 PPR points in Week 6 may not seem like much, but some gamers will be intrigued due to six teams being on their bye. With Jeff Wilson Jr. expected to return, Ahmed shouldn’t be in anyone’s waiver claims, but use his mild success as a sign of expectations for Wilson. The Dolphins have consistently worked in two backs this season, and it’s more about the role than the nameplate on the jersey.
6
Arizona Cardinals running backs
In Week 6, after fantasy owners invest untold sums of FAAB on Emari Demercado following his lively Week 5 relief appearance for the injured James Conner, Arizona’s coaching staff played tricks on us. He ended up touching the ball three times on as many utilizations and watched Keaontay Ingram and Damien Williams combine for 21 total opportunities. Neither was particularly impressive, so maybe this one sways in Demercado’s favor, but he’s bound to be cut in a number of leagues as teams scramble to cover remedy bye-induced headaches with something closer to a sure thing. Ingram’s 14 utilizations make him slightly preferred, and he was more effective in general, but take it with a grain of salt. If possible, it’s probably best to avoid this backfield until Conner returns, especially since three of the four matchups are daunting.
5
WR Kadarius Toney, Kansas City Chiefs
The Curious Case of Kadarius Toney … the fantasy results in relation to his utilization remains equal parts pathetic and impressive. The looks have been there, and he’s finally healthy, so what gives? For starters, his average air depth of target is the 102nd worst in the league at just 2.5, he has zero deep targets, and Toney is averaging only 1.51 yards per route run (54th). The Chiefs absolutely need to get him the ball down the field, or his 85th-ranked expected fantasy points per game (8.0) just isn’t going to change enough to matter. Sometimes, it’s more about the quality of targets than the actual number of them.
4
WR Kendrick Bourne, New England Patriots
There are no two ways around this: New England is utterly putrid on offense. The defense isn’t too far off due to key injuries. In a passing game with a subpar quarterback hanging on by a thread, any recommendation is extremely risky. When there are no name-brand receivers to speak of, follow the targets. The Pats lack a true No. 1 … and No. 2 … receiver. Bourne is the only guy of the lot who has seen double-digit looks in more than one game this year, and he’s the only one who has done it even once. He has at least five targets in all but one outing this year, though the results have been mostly unimpressive. In a Week 7 full of byes, Bourne is a reasonable PPR volume-based play vs. Buffalo.
3
WR Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts
We’ve discussed Downs here before, and this will be a quick reiteration due to the news quarterback Anthony Richardson‘s shoulder may require season-ending surgery. In that event, we’ve seen enough chemistry between the rookie receiver and Gardner Minshew to expect this will continue more often than not. Downs has a respectable 19.3 percent target share (46th in NFL), 90.4 percent route participation rate (50th), and the 18th-most yards after catch. There’s an expectation of continued WR3/flex utility as long as Minshew remains under center.
2
WR Wan'Dale Robinson, New York Giants
Since returning from last year’s ACL repair, Robinson has garnered a healthy 20 percent of the target share, and he secured six of eight targets Sunday night with Tyrod Taylor quarterbacking the beleaguered Giants. It’s unclear when Daniel Jones (neck) will return, but the competitive display from Taylor probably means he won’t be rushed back — and gamers should be rooting for that to be the case. Either way, Robinson has been solidly involved with both quarterbacks, and he’s a worthy PPR WR3 during the remainder of bye-week season thanks to his steady involvement.
1
Indianapolis Colts running backs
In Jonathan Taylor‘s second game back, we received a better understanding of the expected split between the star and Zack Moss. It was a perfectly even 14 utilizations apiece, and both were used in similar ways. Taylor rushed one more time than Moss’ seven attempts, and neither had any success but for the latter’s short TD plunge, which proved to be the difference in fantasy output. Through the air, Taylor’s six targets resulted in a 5-46-0 line, and the former Buffalo Bill produced 38 yards on his six catches (seven targets). The upcoming matchup with Cleveland should result in another stunted fantasy day, but both backs remain playable as long as the coaching staff has confidence in Moss to the tune of double-digit utilizations.
