AS Boris Johnson faces a no-confidence vote from Tory MPs, it’s worth looking back and seeing where Scottish Conservative chief Douglas Ross stands on the leader.
It is well known that Johnson is not well liked in Scotland. In fact, he just recorded his worst ever approval ratings here with a net result of -71.
That figure represents 83% of people who are unhappy with him, vs just 12% who approve of his work as Prime Minister.
Even before Johnson became PM, there was discomfort with the prospect of him taking over from Theresa May among the Scottish Tory camp.
In 2018 the Daily Record reported that the Scottish Tories, under Ruth Davidson’s leadership, were co-ordinating an effort to stop Johnson from winning a leadership vote.
Apparently named “Operation Arse”, the plan allegedly saw the Tories co-ordinate to convince their MPs not to back Johnson and inform party members that he’d be a terrible leader.
But ultimately Johnson beat Jeremy Hunt in a landslide win, and so the Scottish party ended their opposition and started to defend him instead.
In the 2019 Conservative leadership election, Moray MP Ross supported Mark Harper. He then switched to Johnson for the later rounds – and was given a ministerial role in the Scotland Office afterwards.
Ross resigned from that job amid the Dominic Cummings driving-to-Durham scandal, and not long after that replaced failing Scottish Tory leader Jackson Carlaw by default as nobody else wanted to stand for the position.
Partygate part one
This is where things get confusing, as Ross’s public view on Johnson has changed a few times since the start of the year.
When reports of Downing Street parties held during lockdowns really took over the news agenda back in January, the MSP decided to speak up.
"I don't want to be in this position, but I am in this position now, where I don't think he can continue as leader of the Conservatives," Ross said.
He told the media of “significant unrest and concern” among Tories north and south of the Border about the lockdown-breaching parties.
Ross was backed up by his predecessor Ruth Davidson, and other senior MSPs including Murdo Fraser and Liz Smith.
Ross faced anger from some of his Westminster colleagues over the decision to call for Johnson to go, with Jacob Rees-Mogg describing him as a “lightweight” political figure.
Partygate part two
Flash-forward a couple of months and things were looking very different among the Scottish Tories. No MP besides Ross had spoken up about Johnson, and it had all been very quiet on the resignation matter as the war in Ukraine dominated the headlines.
In March, with it being just a matter of days until Johnson was due to address the Scottish Tory conference in Aberdeen, it finally happened.
Ross announced he would be withdrawing his letter of no-confidence from the 1922 Committee.
“There will be a time and place to debate partygate but, as even Keir Starmer said at the weekend, we should put that on pause while there is war in Europe,” the MP said.
“It’s essential that we all fully support what the UK Government is doing. In light of Russia’s appalling actions, the Government and Prime Minister need our backing, and they have mine and the whole Scottish Conservative Party.
“We should all be focused on what we can do to help the Ukrainian people in any capacity.”
Ross and Johnson appeared on stage together at the party’s conference a few days later.
The move didn’t go so well as a handful of Scottish Tory MSPs opted to stick with their resignation calls, despite their boss’s assurance that Johnson has their full support.
Partygate part three: the Sue Gray report
After the damning Sue Gray report was published, a number of Tory MPs began properly calling for Johnson to go. It started as a trickle of names, but eventually led to the current no-confidence situation.
Ross appeared on Sky News after the publication came out and was asked whether the Tory chief should step down.
He seemed to walk back from the full defence of Johnson, but continued to argue that the war in Ukraine meant a leadership challenge was inappropriate.
He conceded that Johnson should quit after the war is over.
Asked if he would reinstate his call for Johnson to go if and when the war is over, Ross said: “Well that has always been my only reason to continue to withdraw my letter. It has been about the situation in Ukraine. I’d love that war to be over, right now, today, tomorrow.
“The Prime Minister doesn’t have my unqualified support, it has been because of the situation in Ukraine.”
The journalist then cut in: “What you’re saying is the war in Ukraine is the only thing that’s reversed your position?"
“Yes,” replied Ross.
“Therefore when the war in Ukraine’s over you’ll reverse it back, correct?” the reporter asked.
“That’s what I said,” said the MP.
Even the Sky News presenters were amused by Ross’s fresh U-turn.
After the interview aired, journalist Jon Craig said: “He’s flip-flopping all over the place …
“He will be, I suspect, ridiculed by his political opponents in Scotland. In fact, I think Nicola Sturgeon has already criticised him for changing his views on this.”
He later added: “I think more consistency is what we need from Mr Ross.”
The no-confidence situation
With a no-confidence vote set to take place this evening, it’s not entirely clear what five of the six Scottish Tory MPs will do.
Scottish Secretary Alister Jack has offered his support to the Prime Minister, saying on Monday: “He is showing tremendous leadership as we face major challenges at home and abroad.
“I have no doubt that my colleagues in the parliamentary party will vote to show their confidence in the Prime Minister.”
Despite this claim there is less clarity for the others.
Andrew Bowie has suggested he and his colleagues have a lot of thinking to do, but stopped short of calling for Johnson’s resignation.
And with the war in Ukraine ongoing, it would appear that Ross will back the PM.
But the process is a secretive one, so any of them could vote however they want in theory. But will they have the guts to do that? Or will Ross, who has the “backbone of a jellyfish” according to the LibDems, continue to back up his Westminster bosses?
