Rising Covid cases could be linked to the long bank holiday weekend for the Queen's jubilee, an expert has said. And the surge in infections may last until the autumn.
There had been a jump in infections compatible with the original Omicron variant BA.1, along with the newer variants BA.4 and BA.5. A total of 989,800 people in private households in the UK are estimated to have had the virus in the week ending June 2, up from 953,900 the previous week, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Initial findings suggest BA.4 and BA.5 have a degree of “immune escape”, meaning the immune system can no longer recognise or fight a virus, which is likely to contribute to their growth advantage over BA.2, the UK Health Security Agency has said.
And Dr Simon Clarke, Associate Professor in Cellular Microbiology, University of Reading, said any surge may be boosted by the bank holiday Platinum Jubilee celebrations, MirrorOnline reports. This is because people were off work and the average home is more densely populated than the average workplace.
However, it is too early to tell what impact it will have on hospitalisations, and more specifically on intensive care admissions, he said.
He told the Mirror said BA.4 and BA.5 - first identified in Africa in January and February - will likely eventually become the main strain in the UK, saying: "The way it [Covid] is going to continue to evolve is increasing transmissibility.
"Previously there’s been a lot of chatter about increased transmissibility meaning it’s less lethal. That’s absolutely not true. The lethality thing is something that could go either way.
"It could get less lethal, but it’s certainly not a guarantee."
However, he said it's unlikely there will be another lockdown unless there was a "jump in the biology of the virus" and it became more resistant to immunity or more aggressive in creating disease.
"There will be more infections, I would expect that there would be waves of people being unwell, sort of mass sickness," he said, describing a worst case scenario.
"And there maybe an increase in people ending up in hospital."
Data from the University of Tokyo in Japan suggested BA.4, BA.5 and BA.2.12.1 may refavour infecting lung cells, rather than upper respiratory tract tissue, the Guardian reported. It also quoted Dr Stephen Griffin, a virologist at the University of Leeds, saying: “It looks as though these things are switching back to the more dangerous form of infection, so going lower down in the lung."
When asked about that, Dr Clarke said: "We don’t really understand what that is down to.
"Is it because it is innately more aggressive? Or are the symptoms that we see in people, which are really what matters, down to waning immunity, for example.
"We perhaps had higher immunity when we had earlier versions of Omicron, and we know that immunity will be waning by now and is that why we get that difference?"
He went on to say, it is "entirely possible" the latest wave could continue to increase through the summer, though if the weather is good and people spend more time outdoors "that should mitigate some of the effects".
"We don't have a clear view, despite what some people will tell you, about what the effectiveness of seasonality is versus the effectiveness of immunity.
"I suspect the immunity is much more important and has a much bigger impact."
He said the spring booster vaccine programme for the over-75s and the extremely vulnerable will help to fight against the spread and others "will have some residual immunity".
"It’s like trying to fill up a bucket that’s got a leak, it’s going to constantly need to be topped up, probably."
Dr Clarke said younger, non-vulnerable people will likely see a drop in immunity too but they are "unlikely to get sick" - though "that doesn't mean they can't spread it round".
He explained it takes 10 days to two weeks to determine whether any increase in cases feeds through to hospitalisations.
"It’s entirely possible that we will get an outbreak in cases but not necessarily a corresponding increase in hospitalisations," he continued.
Referring to when the current wave subsides, Dr Clarke added: "Who knows what’s going to come after that. But something will.
"Covid will keep coming back. Influenza keeps coming back year on year, colds keep coming back. It’s just with us and it’s with us forever."
