Understanding the Green Bay Packers’ needs and offseason plans first requires knowing where the roster stands exiting the 2021 season and entering 2022.
Going through position by position helps paint a clear picture of what GM Brian Gutekunst is facing this offseason, both from a personnel and salary cap standpoint.
Here’s our breakdown of the Packers’ roster at the wide receiver position, with players under contract for 2022, free agents, early thoughts on the position group and a unique cap perspective from Ken Ingalls, a CPA who studies the salary cap:
Roster analysis
Under contract (5): Randall Cobb, Amari Rodgers, Juwann Winfree, Rico Gafford, Chris Blair
Free agents (5): Davante Adams, Allen Lazard (restricted), Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Equanimeous St. Brown, Malik Taylor (exclusive rights)
Early thoughts: Arguably no position on the roster needs more work, and no position looks more difficult to navigate financially. Cobb might be under contract, but he won’t be back at his current price in 2022. Will Adams get the franchise tag? Can the Packers afford to use the restricted tender on Lazard? Is there enough money to bring back Valdes-Scantling? The Packers may need to add 2-3 new players (at least) to this position group during the offseason.
Ken’s cap perspective
I’ve been discussing the contract issues the Packers face in 2022 within the wide receiver group for over two years and now here we are with little done over that time to remedy the situation. The wide receiver position is a mess. Randall Cobb is the veteran of the group, and the next most experienced player is Juwann Winfree. Cobb’s cap hit of $9.5 million is the eighth-highest on the team and is a near-lock to be cut from the roster to save $6.7 million. There remains a chance he could take a significant pay cut to stick around, which could save up to $6.8 million if he goes down all the way to the veteran minimum. We can’t ignore the importance of Cobb’s relationship with Aaron Rodgers – it’s no mystery the reason Cobb was wearing the green & gold last year was because of Rodgers’ demands. This could muddy the roster-building waters if the Packers are forced to balance Rodgers’ happiness and prudent business decisions.
Davante Adams is an unrestricted free agent and there is talk about the Packers planning on placing the franchise tag on Adams to either force him to stay, or to trade him away for a premium package of draft picks. Their cap situation makes this very difficult to pull off. Similar to the timeline I discussed with trading Aaron Rodgers, the order of operations around the franchise tag is an obstacle given their large negative cap balance. To franchise tag Adams (it doesn’t matter if they intend to keep or trade him) the Packers would be charged $20.12 million against their salary cap and then need get past the March 16th deadline with this amount on their books. Depending on what other cap-saving moves the Packers can/cannot pull off this becomes a daunting task as we get closer to the deadline and could ultimately prove to be near impossible. Even if they can work the numbers, there is a huge opportunity cost to having the $20.12 million tag on the books – they could probably bring back 4-5 other top free agents for this amount but instead risk allowing them to be exposed to outside suitors via free agency.
The most likely path to Adams returning in 2022 has always been via a long-term deal and avoiding the franchise tag but they face a tough negotiation. Adams has made no secret he expects to become the highest-paid wide receiver in the NFL. Adams will point to DeAndre Hopkins’ reported $27.5 million per year deal as the one to beat, but the Packers will argue (and I agree) this deal is highly misleading and is closer to a $18.9 million per year deal. A hurdle in front of the Packers is that the Packers honored a similar ambiguous contract when they made David Bakhtiari the highest-paid offensive tackle over Laremy Tunsil. I expect to hear lots of “negotiating through the media” as these talks could go off the rails and could end in any result of him walking, signing long-term, being tagged and traded, or tagged ending in a deal, no new deal, and/or a holdout. My guess that Adams plays elsewhere in 2022.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown are unrestricted free agents – it wouldn’t surprise me if neither is back this season. The Packers need receivers so maybe one comes back especially if they can’t figure things out with Adams. Allen Lazard is a restricted free agent and is probably facing either a second-round tender at $3.986 million or the lower right of first refusal tender of $2.433 million to come back on a one-year deal. My gut says he gets the second-rounder but wouldn’t be entirely surprised if he is allowed to test free agency either. Malik Taylor is an exclusive rights free agent and should return on a minimum contract for training camp. Amari Rodgers is the lone wide receiver on the roster under contract past this 2022 season and his rookie season left more questions than answers for the long-term future of the group. The wide receiver corps is one I expect to look a lot different this season and is a critical need in the upcoming draft likely making several picks over the weekend.
