Closing summary
… and on that note, it’s a wrap from me, Jakub Krupa.
Here are the three things to take away from today’s blog:
EU leaders lined up to warn against the consequences of US president Donald Trump’s threats to impose “totally unnecessary and stupid” tariffs on the European Union, assertively warning against a potential retaliation from the bloc (12:27).
French prime minister François Bayrou moved to force through France’s 2025 budget without a vote (14:36, and 16:12, and 16:21), and is expected to survive a confidence vote later this week after the Socialist Party decided against backing the motion (16:02).
Earthquake fears have prompted people to flee Santorini, as Greece’s most popular island destination continues to be hit by what scientists described as a “barrage” of tremors (16:34). But the country’s prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said authorities were monitoring a “very intense” geological phenomenon over recent days, and asked “our islanders above all to remain calm” (14:59).
And that’s all from me, Jakub Krupa, for today.
Have a great weekend and see you again tomorrow.
If you have any tips, comments or suggestions, email me at jakub.krupa@theguardian.com.
I am also on Bluesky at @jakubkrupa.bsky.social and on X at @jakubkrupa.
Updated
Merz's 'uncompromising' speech at the CDU/CSU conference in final weeks of campaign
in Berlin
The German conservative opposition leader, Friedrich Merz, whose party is widely tipped to win this month’s general election, defended his hardline migration proposals after a wave of protests accused him of breaching the time-honoured “firewall” between the far right and centrists.
In an uncompromising speech to a party congress of his Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in Berlin, Merz said he was confident they would win the 23 February vote “with a very good result”, well ahead of the anti-immigration, anti-Islam Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which has been consistently placing second in the polls.
Five days after passing a non-binding resolution on border policy with the votes of the far right – marking a historic breach of a taboo – Merz renewed a promise to bar any formal cooperation with the AfD in future.
Full story:
Updated
France's Bayrou faces no confidence vote after forcing 2025 budget through, but he is likely to survive – analysis
in Paris
France’s prime minister will face a vote of no confidence after he pushed through the country’s budget bill without a vote in the Assemblée Nationale.
The hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) said on Monday it was lodging two motions of no confidence in the government after François Bayrou used a constitutional measure known as the “49.3” to force through the legislation without a parliamentary debate.
However, the Socialist party (PS) said it would not support any motion that would bring down a second government in less than two months, meaning the move was unlikely to plunge France back into political uncertainty.
Full story:
Updated
Greenland to ban foreign political donations amid Trump interest
Now for something completely different as we turn our minds again to Greenland, which now wants to ban foreign donations to political parties, according to a bill unveiled Monday.
The AFP news agency reports that the law is intended to “safeguard the political integrity of Greenland”, according to the text of the bill.
As the government holds a majority in the parliament, or Inatsisartut, the bill is likely to pass after it is presented on Tuesday and could come into force immediately.
Greenland is to hold elections by 6 April, and concerns have been raised about possible foreign interference, likely also fuelled by Trump ally Elon Musk’s repeated interventions in the German electoral campaign.
“There will be different people, different groups that will try to affect the whole election in Greenland, not only in Greenland, but all over the world,” Aaja Chemnitz, a member of Denmark’s parliament representing Greenland, recently told AFP.
Elsewhere in German politics, it emerged that Merz’s close electoral rival, Alternative für Deutschland’s co-leader Alice Weidel, would meet Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán next week.
“Berlin has always been a city of walls. It’s time to tear another one down,” Orbán said on X.
Reuters notes that despite their ideological closeness, Orbán has hitherto been careful to keep his distance from the AfD, with officials saying he did not want to antagonise mainstream German parties for whom the AfD is anathema.
But he told Switzerland’s Neue Zuercher Zeitung newspaper that the visit would take place next week.
“The AfD could get 20% of the vote [in the election]. If its head wants to talk to me, why should I say no?” the newspaper quoted him as saying in an interview.
Weidel’s party shares Orban’s desire to rebuild Europe’s relations with Russia despite the ongoing Ukraine war as well as his strong antipathy to immigration, especially from Muslim countries, Reuters says.
In recent weeks, Weidel’s AfD also secured a straight endorsement from close US president Donald Trump ally and billionaire X owner, Elon Musk.
The AfD is polling second in Germany’s election race, behind Friedrich Merz’s conservative bloc.
Updated
Merz's speech to CDU/CSU party conference – summary
Back in Berlin, Friedrich Merz is finished speaking at the CDU/CSU conference – and has now moved on to giving one on one interviews with broadcasters – but here is a recap of key points from his wide-ranging speech as he:
promised further support for Ukraine and warned against the military threat from Russia
denounced antisemitism on German streets, with a swipe at those attending mass protests against his policies over the weekend for not protesting against these incidents,
promised to invest in police and other services to regain trust of citizens,
attacked Olaf Scholz for a higher number of unemployed people that at the beginning of his term,
criticised deindustrialisation of the country’s economy and excessive regulation, both domestically and in the EU,
promised to work closely with other EU partners, particularly France and Poland,
called for lower corporate taxation,
and repeated his claim that the majority of Germans agree with his calls to tighten migration policy.
Many of these promises relate to a 15-point manifesto adopted also today by the conference (but which also include other measures on economy, migrations, and other issues).
Updated
Idea we could run Nato without the US is a 'silly thought', Rutte says
Rutte gets asked about a potential trade war between the US and Canada.
“I am absolutely convinced that we can deal with these issues … and this will not get in the way of our collective determination to keep out deterrence strong,” he says.
Starmer also gets asked on Trump’s tariffs.
“It’s early days,” he says, stressing the importance of open trading relations. He acknowledges tensions with the EU, saying “I know that intense US-EU discussions are planned.” But he does not accept he would need to choose between the US and the EU.
Repeatedly asked about Trump’s tariffs in follow ups, both Rutte and Starmer toe the diplomatic line to avoid any controversy.
But Rutte eventually goes further in his comments when asked if its time to plan for Nato without the US.
“To your question on Nato and the assumption that you could run Nato without the US. That is, for so many reasons, a silly thought,” he says.
“A Nato, or whatever the organisation is then called, without the US, for many reasons, that would not work,” Rutte stresses.
When you look at Ukraine, it’s not just Ukraine and Russia. This would be bad enough, but it is a geopolitical thing which is going on, and the US and the European side of Nato realise that.
It is China, North Korea, Iran, all getting connected to Russia. This is a geopolitical thing playing out at the moment, and this is why Ukraine must win, not just for Ukraine’s sake, but also for the [wider] geopolitical impact.
Updated
And now we’re going over to Brussels, where Nato secretary general Mark Rutte and UK prime minister Keir Starmer have been speaking to the media.
Rutte praises the UK for its support for Ukraine since 2022, but insisted that “we must not only sustain, but step up our support, so that when the time comes, Ukraine can sit at the negotiating table in a position of strength.”
Starmer talks of his experience of recently visiting Kyiv, seeing residential buildings destroyed just days before, soldiers recovering from terrible burns, and children whose parents are out on the frontline.
“This is not just a war in Ukraine, but on Ukraine, against those children and their future,” he says. “Peace will come through strength. We must do all that we can to support Ukraine’s defence,” he adds.
Pointedly, he says “we need all allies stepping up, particularly in Europe.”
Updated
Key lines from French PM Bayrou as he moves to force the 2025 budget without vote
in Paris
Bayrou told the house:
This is the hour of truth. This is the week of truth and responsibility. No country can survive without a budget and France less than others. Since almost 70 years our country is without a budget in February for the first time.
Is this budget perfect? No. Nobody finds it perfect. It is a balance. We are faced with our duty and the decision is in your hands.
On the social security bill, Bayrou said France’s approach from cradle to grave was one of “all for one” whereas other countries had the attitude of “everyone for themselves, their own families”.
Explaining the PS decision not to back a censure motion, the PS spokesperson Arthur Delaporte, told journalists after the finance bill was passed. “It is not a good budget, but France needs a budget.”
Back to France, I am not saying the situation is hectic, but Le Monde rolled out its own calculator so you can test different majorities possible with 12 different groupings in the Assemblée nationale to see in which scenarios Bayrou can survive the confidence vote later this week. You can play with it here.
But, as the AFP notes, the long story short is: The hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) party swiftly called for a no-confidence vote, but the motion had little chance of passing after the Socialist Party decided against backing it.
The socialists issued this press release in the last few minutes, explaining why they’ll not back the motion. They directly criticise the government and point out numerous shortcomings of the proposed budget, but say that any further delays in its passing would pose a risk of harm to the most vulnerable citizens.
Merz rules out any form of cooperation with far-right AfD
The CDU/CSU candidate and the frontrunner to be the next chancellor, Friedrich Merz, is now also speaking in Berlin.
He says he is “determined to win this federal election with a very good result,” as he hails that the CDU/CDU’s leadership in the past, all the way back to Konrad Adenauer, Ludwig Erhard and Helmut Kohl, saying “many decisions were hotly contested” and “not self-evident” at the time.
He says the country is in a similar turning point that needs bold leadership, which needs to go beyond easy consensus.
But he pledges that his party will never work with the far-right Alternative für Deutschland, saying it stands against everything against CDU/CSU values in western values, Nato, and democracy.
His words are welcomed by long applause.
France's Bayrou moves to force the 2025 budget without vote
… and just as expected, François Bayrou moves to force the 2025 budget without a vote, using the constitutional measure known as 49.3, as explained by Kim Willsher earlier (13:36).
People flee Santorini as earthquake fears grow
in Athens
Earthquake fears have prompted people to flee Santorini, as Greece’s most popular island destination continues to be hit by what scientists described as a “barrage” of tremors.
Panic is beginning to take hold in Santorini where amid scenes of reported chaos on the island tourists and locals are now desperately try to leave – by boat and by plane.
Local media showed hundreds converging on the port in the hope of boarding ferries. Meanwhile planes are departing for Athens “totally packed” while tickets for extra flights now being scheduled are selling “within seconds”.
With authorities on heightened alert amid mounting concerns of an impending natural disaster, residents, tourists and workers are scrambling to leave the island on ferries and planes.
By midday on Monday, Aegean airlines, the national carrier, had announced it was doubling the number of flights from Athens to Santorini for the next two days, as travel agents said the new flights were sold out “within seconds”.
On Monday, an earthquake measuring 4.8 on the Richter scale, the most powerful yet, was registered at 2.17 PM local time. Land and rockslides were also recorded.
Earlier today, the country’s prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis appealed for calm, saying that authorities were monitoring a “very intense” geological phenomenon over recent days, and adding: “I want to ask our islanders above all to remain calm” (13:59).
Updated
Aaaand in Brussels, here’s Nato secretary general Mark Rutte and UK prime minister Keir Starmer ahead of their meeting on European defence and security.
I will bring you the key news lines from their press conference later.
Updated
Meanwhile in France, there are reports that the Socialist party decided against supporting a potential no-confidence vote in François Bayrou’s government, which is expected to be triggered by the hard left La France Insoumise (France Unbowed) in response to his use of special constitutional powers to pass the 2025 budget (see 13:36).
The vote could happen on Wednesday.
But without the Socialists, Bayrou’s critics will probably struggle to get the majority required to oust the prime minister. We’ve gone through the numbers on Friday (17:00).
Bayrou will speak in the Assemblée nationale soon.
We’re still waiting for Merz as the CDU/CSU event is running slightly behind schedule, with the CSU’s Markus Söder delivering his lines first.
In a passionate stump speech, he says chancellor Olaf Scholz is not fit for the job, as he insists Germany needs “a change of direction” so it does not follow a number of European countries down the populist right route.
He also seeks to clearly distance CDU/CSU from the far-right Alternative für Deutschland, ruling out any form of cooperation with them after the election.
Updated
Greek prime minister appeals for calm over 'very intense' tremors in Santorini
Greek prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis appealed for calm on Monday after a wave of seismic tremors hit the tourist island of Santorini, prompting concern among locals and hundreds of departures, AFP reports.
Speaking from Brussels, Mitsotakis said authorities were monitoring a “very intense” geological phenomenon over recent days, adding: “I want to ask our islanders above all to remain calm.”
Known for its spectacular cliffside views and a dormant volcano, Santorini and neighbouring Aegean Sea islands have been hit by hundreds of tremors since last week, the largest with a magnitude of 4.9.
The neighbouring islands of Anafi, Ios and Amorgos have also been affected.
The activity has prompted authorities to send rescue units to the area and close schools, and some areas have been declared off-limits because of rockslide risks.
What else is coming today?
In terms of timings of what else is coming, we’re expecting (all times CET):
CDU/CSU’s chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz to speak in Berlin around 15:15.
French prime minister François Bayrou to speak in Paris as he introduces his budget around 16:00.
UK prime minister Keir Starmer and Nato secretary general Mark Rutte to speak with the media after their meeting in Brussels around 16:40.
Then for all the night owls among you:
The press conference after the EU leaders’ meeting in late evening, probably around 10pm (TBC)
(We will catch up on that presser in tomorrow morning’s Europe Live.)
Updated
Next steps in French budgetary talks
in Paris
France faces further political uncertainty as the prime minister, François Bayrou, prepares to ignore threats of a no-confidence motion and force the 2025 budget bill through without a vote.
With no majority in the Assemblée Nationale, the centrist politician has little choice but to use the constitutional measure, known as the “49.3”, on Monday to pass the legislation aimed at reducing the country’s soaring deficit.
The hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) has said it will lodge a confidence vote immediately afterwards, a move supported by the country’s ecology party (EELV) and Communist party (PCF).
The Parti Socialiste (PS) has not said if it will support the motion and the far-right National Rally party (RN) is meeting in the next few hours to decide whether to throw its weight behind the move, which would bring down a second government in less than two months.
Bayrou, who was appointed shortly afterwards, will present his budget bill to the lower house on Monday afternoon after the text was approved by a cross party committee last week.
If Bayrou uses the 49.3 to push through the bill, as he suggested this weekend he will, opponents have 24 hours to lodge a censure motion that must be voted on within 48 hours.
If it succeeds, the bills are rejected, the government collapses and France returns to a political impasse.
If the budget bill is passed, it will come into effect in the second half of the month.
New Nato defence spending pledge will have to be 'considerably higher than 2%', Nato's Rutte says
Nato secretary general Mark Rutte has now joined the EU leaders at their informal meeting in Brussels.
Before going into Palais d’Egmont, or Egmontpaleis if you prefer the Dutch name, he said that Europe needs to “ramp up defence spending”, and the new defence spending pledge will have to be “considerably higher than 2%”.
He was also asked about Nato’s position on Greenland, and he diplomatically said that he had good discussions with Denmark and other allies, and all parties “have to do more collectively” to protect the high north.
Asked to comment on Trump’s tariff threats, he declined to get involved saying jokingly that it’s above his pay grade.
Updated
Lessons from Serbia, Hungary, Italy, Slovakia, Poland and Belarus for Americans under Trump
in Belgrade
Citizens of central and eastern Europe are long accustomed to receiving counsel from a multitude of well-meaning US organisations on how to protect their fragile democracies following the fall of the Berlin Wall. Now, after just 10 days of Donald Trump’s executive orders and civil service purges, the advice is beginning to flow the other way.
With the new Trump era likely to pose unprecedented challenges the message from Europe’s fragile democracies is: stay united and safeguard your institutions.
Updated
'I wouldn't do anything prematurely,' Irish prime minister strikes cautious note in response to Trump's tariff threats
Earlier today, Lisa O’Carroll brought us comments from Ireland’s deputy prime minister Simon Harris on Trump’s tariff threats (11:34).
But this morning we also heard from the new prime minister, Micheál Martin, who is at the EU leaders’ talks in Brussels.
This is what he said:
The European Union has to act as one. We are an economic entity. We have a single market.
Trade is, as you know, the competency of the commission, but obviously member states have an input into how Europe will respond, how Europe navigates this period.
So first of all, we have to see what happens, and assess it and measure it, calibrate the impacts, and then develop our response.
But I wouldn’t do anything prematurely right now, until we see what exactly is being proposed, if something is being proposed.
Writing for the Guardian, Jörg Lau, an international correspondent for the German weekly Die Zeit, said that Merz “has shattered the taboo that had underpinned German politics since the war”, making “the unthinkable … more possible”.
Merz has emboldened the AfD and damaged his own credibility. Moreover, he shattered a taboo central to postwar German political culture by breaking the norm of non-cooperation with the extreme right in any capacity. It is hard to overstate this moment’s significance.
It is a poor excuse that none of it was Merz’s intention. By failing to shun the votes of a party suspected of being an extremist organisation by German intelligence agencies to get his immigration proposals adopted, Merz reneged on a vow of non-cooperation.In November, he had publicly declared the CDU would never vote with the AfD, nor even accept “coincidental majorities” with them.
Updated
CDU/CSU's Merz to set out his plans after weekend mass protests over migration proposals
Earlier today, I reported on German chancellor Olaf Scholz’s unusual detour into domestic politics and criticism of the CDU/CSU opposition party as he arrived at the EU leaders’ meeting in Brussels.
His reaction comes after a difficult week in German politics, which culminated in a turbulent sitting of the Bundestag on Friday discussing the opposition’s ultimately failed proposals to tighten the country’s immigration laws. We covered this in Europe Live on Friday (here).
But over the weekend, thousands of Germans protested against his plans and his perceived openness to accept the votes of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland for their proposals, breaking the longstanding “firewall” arrangement in German politics.
CDU/CSU’s chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz, who leads in the polls with three weeks to go, will try to regain the momentum today as he speaks at the party’s conference and sets out his plans should he be elected into the office, including on economy and migration.
CDU delegates are expected to support a 15-point plan to implement “immediately” if the party wins the elections and forms a government.
It contains many of the measures in one motion passed with the AfD, including plans to turn back asylum seekers at the German border and the unlimited detention of “dangerous” migrants who are set for deportation.
He will speak in the afternoon; in the meantime, here are some pictures from this weekend’s protests.
Spain's former football chief on trial over World Cup kiss
Spain’s former football chief Luis Rubiales went on trial in Madrid on Monday over the unsolicited kiss he planted on the World Cup winner Jenni Hermoso, a gesture that stunned millions of TV viewers and unleashed a backlash against sexism in sport.
“I knew I was being kissed by my boss and that should not happen in any social or work environment,” Hermoso said of the encounter seen live by millions around the world at the 2023 World Cup awards ceremony in Australia.
“As a woman I felt disrespected. It was a moment that stained one of the happiest days of my life,” added Hermoso, the all-time top scorer for the national women’s team.
“Until today it feels like my life has been on stand by” due to the case, she added, as reported by Reuters.
Rubiales is accused of sexual assault and then attempting to coerce Hermoso – with the help of three other men – into declaring that the kiss had been consensual.
Key event
in Dublin
The Irish deputy prime minister has warned that Donald Trump poses “significant challenges” for Ireland and Europe if he imposes tariffs on goods imported to the US as he has done with Canada and Mexico.
Simon Harris said the EU must work with the US administration to avert a trade war.
“Ireland is at the centre of the European Union and any imposition of tariffs on the EU would create significant challenges,” he said. “Europe must and will work collectively and with the United States to avoid such a situation emerging and if necessary to mitigate any measures taken,” he said.
Ireland, which has a large pharma export sector courtesy of US multinationals, is one of three countries in the EU along with Germany and Italy that have a trade in goods surplus with the US. However it is in deficit in services.
Harris’s remarks come as Ireland braces itself for ill winds from the US, historically one of its closest trading and cultural allies on foot of historic emigration.
He will outline a Brexit-style plan to the Irish cabinet this week to guard against economic shocks facing Ireland.
First EU reactions to Trump's tariff threats against the bloc - summary
EU leaders have signalled that the bloc would be prepared to retaliate against the US if Donald Trump followed through on his threats to impose tariffs on European goods.
Speaking ahead of their informal meeting in Brussels, they repeatedly called for calm and stressed the value of EU-US cooperation, but indicated that they would not hide away from responding with tariffs if targeted first.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the bloc was “listening carefully” to Trump’s comments and “preparing on our side” to respond if needed.
However, she stressed that “there are no winners in trade wars” and pointed out that China would be the only beneficiary of that scenario.
French president Emmanuel Macron said that if Europe is “attacked in terms of trade ... [it] will have to stand up for itself and therefore react.”
Polish prime minister Donald Tusk said the EU should do all it can to avoid “totally unnecessary and stupid tariff wars,” adding it would be a “cruel paradox” if the bloc was forced into a trade war with a long-standing ally.
Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen, who is already embroiled in a separate crisis with Trump over the future of Greenland, said that while she would typically “never support fighting allies, if the US puts tough tariffs on Europe, we need a collective and robust response.”
Luxembourg’s prime minister Luc Frieden also said that “the answer to tariffs is to reply with [the] same action,” but insisted it should not overshadow today’s discussions on defence.
But some leaders struck a more conciliatory tone.
German chancellor Olaf Scholz said any tariffs would be “bad for the US and bad for Europe,” and stressed the need for cooperation to resolve this situation.
Finnish prime minister Petteri Orpo said: “We have to negotiate with Trump,” before adding: “I am not going to start a war, I want to start negotiations.”
Time to get closer with Britain, Poland's Tusk says
Poland’s Tusk also spoke about the British part of the summit, with UK prime minister Keir Starmer joining EU leaders for dinner, saying it was his initiative (Poland holds the EU’s rotating presidency until July) to invite him over to Brussels:
This is what he said (in Polish):
I am really keen that, regardless of Brexit and its consequences, to have the UK as close as possible to the EU when it comes to security issues, defence industry, and to find ways to eliminate or reduce barriers in trade between the UK and Europe.
Today is the moment to get as close as possible again.
Updated
If targeted, Europe will have to make itself respected, France's Macron warns
French president Emmanuel Macron says bluntly that if Europe is targeted on its trade and commercial interests, it will have to make itself respected.
“If we are attacked in terms of trade, Europe – as a true power – will have to stand up for itself and therefore react,” he says.
His remarks are mostly focused on greater European independence and strategic autonomy in defence, saying that the Russian aggression of Ukraine and the new Trump administration “push Europeans to be more united.”
Tariffs 'bad for US and Europe,' Germany's Scholz warns, but hopes for cooperative way forward
German chancellor Olaf Scholz warns that any tariffs would be “bad for the US and bad for Europe,” and says that while the EU could respond with its own policies, he wants to find a way forward based on cooperation between the two sides.
Somewhat unusually, he also returns to the issue of migration and refugee laws, extensively discussed in the Bundestag last week, directly attacking the CDU/CSU opposition in Germany for opposing EU laws in this area due to “party politics.”
Remember, we are three weeks out from the parliamentary election there.
We need to avoid 'unnecessary and stupid' tariffs, trade wars, Polish PM Tusk says
Poland’s prime minister Donald Tusk says the EU “has to do everything it can to avoid these totally unnecessary and stupid tariff wars or trade wars,” despite Trump’s comments.
He says it would be a “cruel paradox” if the EU was tested in such a way by a close ally while at the same time having to deal with “this direct Russian threat and Chinese expansion.”
He says the response to Trump could be the first serious test of the EU’s unity on this, though he notes it comes “in a very strange context,” given the tariff threat comes from an ally.
In the Polish part of his briefing, he also warns against “completely senseless conflict” over trade, and repeatedly stresses his support for Denmark over Greenland.
Danish PM calls for ‘collective and robust response’ if Trumps targets EU with tariffs
Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen is also asked about Trump’s tariffs.
She says:
I will never support fighting allies, but if the US puts tough tariffs on Europe, we need a collective and robust response.
Greenland 'not for sale,' Danish prime minister says
Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen is next up.
She rebukes latest comments on Greenland very directly, saying it is “not for sale.”
We have been very clear … that everybody has to respect the sovereignty of all the national states in the world, and that Greenland is today a part of the Kingdom of Denmark, and it’s not for sale. The leader of Greenland has been very clear they are not for sale.
She then says that she agrees with the US on the importance of Greenland for international security, but there are other ways of resolving this issue.
I totally agree with the Americans that … the Artic region is becoming more and more important … and it is possible to find a way to ensure a stronger footprint in Greenland. They are already there, and they can have more possibilities and we are willing to scale up, and Nato is the same.
If this is about securing our part of the world, we can find a way forward.
She also repeats her strong support for Ukraine as she says “I don’t think we should panic, but I think we are in a hurry” to strengthen European defence.
We need to change our mindsets, we need a sense of urgency, and we need to ensure that our industries and political cooperation work in a smoother way."
'We have to negotiate with Trump,' Finnish prime minister says
Finnish prime minister Petteri Orpo warns that “Russia will be, and it is, a permanent threat to European countries, and the EU.”
“This is not an opinion; it’s a fact. That’s why every single country in the EU needs to be ready to use more on defence,” he says.
Asked about his response to Trump, he says:
We are prepared. We have to negotiate with Trump. This is one of the most important issues today. I am not going to start a war, I want to start negotiations.
US tariffs only benefit China, EU foreign policy chief Kallas says
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has just been addressing the media on her arrival in Brussels.
She spoke about the need for Europe to “do more, together” in defence and look at how new initiatives can be funded.
But she’s also inevitably asked about Trump’s tariffs, and this is what she says:
We were listening carefully to those words and of course we are preparing also on our side. What is clear, there are no winners in trade wars.
If US starts a trade war, the one laughing on the side is China. We are very interlinked. We need America, and America needs us as well.
Tariffs increase costs, they are not good for costs, and for customers.
Answer to tariffs is 'to reply with same actions,' Luxembourg's Frieden says
Luxembourg’s prime minister Luc Frieden has just been asked to offer his thoughts on Trump’s tariffs:
I think that tariffs are always bad. Tariffs are bad for trade, they are bad for the US, bad for those who seek tariffs imposed.
The answer to tariffs is to reply with same actions.
But that is not a topic for today.
Protests in Serbia
Serbia’s powerful populist leader Aleksandar Vučić was facing his biggest challenge yet as student-led demonstrations intensified at the weekend in what was being called the Balkan country’s greatest ever protest movement.
Three months to the day after a concrete canopy collapsed at the entrance of Novi Sad’s railway station, tens of thousands of protesters converged on the northern city, blockading its three bridges in commemoration of the 15 people killed in the accident. The tragedy has been blamed squarely on government ineptitude and graft.
Saturday’s outpouring of dissent – the culmination of sit-ins and protests that began in November – have focused on what demonstrators have described as the government’s striking unwillingness to accept any accountability for the tragedy.
Reconstruction of the station was carried out in collaboration with a Chinese state consortium, as part of a large infrastructure project that critics contend paid little, if any, attention to safety regulations.
Latest on Ukraine
Adviser to Volodymyr Zelenskyy calls Keith Kellogg’s plan a failure after US envoy says he thinks both sides ‘will give a little bit’; British PM says Putin ‘rattled’ by Trump threats. What we know on day 1,076.
Our today’s host in Brussels, European Council president António Costa, has just arrived, but he is not in a mood to take any questions on Trump.
He says the point of the meeting is to have a “frank, open, and free discussion around … what are the priorities we need to develop... how we assure the necessary financing and how we strengthen our existing partnerships.”
He name-checks Nato secretary general Mark Rutte and UK prime minister Keir Starmer as special guests joining the EU leaders later during the day, but bats away questions saying he will talk to us again later.
His press conference after the summit is expected in late, late evening.
Denmark ‘not being a good ally’ over Greenland, US vice-president Vance says
US vice-president JD Vance spoke about Denmark and Greenland over the weekend, claiming that Denmark is “not doing its job, and it’s not being a good ally” by not countering the Chinese and Russian use of sea lanes in the area.
Trump’s No.2 asserted that the territory is “really important to our national security.”
He said:
How are we going to solve that problem, solve our own national security? If that means that we need to take more territorial interest in Greenland, that is what President Trump is going to do because he doesn’t care about what the Europeans scream at us, he cares about putting the interest of American citizens first.
He also repeated the line on how Greenlanders aren’t exactly happy under the Danish rule, although no word on their apparent lack of enthusiasm for that to be replaced by the US either.
New government in Belgium
After more than seven months of tortuous negotiations, we are going to get a new Belgian government today, after five parties struck a coalition deal on Friday, with Flemish conservative nationalist Bart De Wever to be the new prime minister.
The new PM channelled Julius Caesar by posting the Latin message “Alea iacta est! [the die is cast]” on social media alongside a picture of him shaking hands with Belgium’s King Philippe.
He has just been sworn in by the king this morning, and he is expected at the EU’s “informal retreat” shortly.
Straight to business.
Updated
EU cannot be ‘naive’ about Trump’s tariffs, Spanish economy minister says
The European Union must remain united to respond to US president Donald Trump’s threats to levy tariffs on its products, Spanish economy minister Carlos Cuerpo said on Monday, Reuters reports.
The EU was open to trade and in favour of a globalised world market, though the bloc should not be “naive” and protect its companies and should make sure they were in a position to compete in equal conditions with rivals from other countries, Cuerpo said in an interview with Spanish radio station RNE.
Latest business reaction
If you are interested in all the latest business reaction and stock markets movements after Trump’s tariffs, you can follow all of this on our business live blog here:
Spoiler alert: it’s not pretty.
German DAX, French CAC 40, Danish C25, Spanish IBEX, Italian FTSE MIB, British FTSE 100 all going in one direction.
Morning opening: Any Other Business
EU leaders are gathering in Brussels this morning for an “informal retreat” to discuss European defence, including closer cooperation on procurement of defence capabilities.
If you’re thinking about a relaxing spa-like retreat, think again.
It is the first time EU leaders meet to discuss defence, but there are already some significant differences in how capitals seem to be thinking about these issues: French president Emmanuel Macron is understood to be pushing for the EU to primarily Buy European, while others worry that would further antagonise already fragile relations with the US.
Because, as has been a recurrent theme over the last two weeks, there is now no discussion on any topic that does not eventually lead to Donald Trump. Even if the question of dealing with his disruptive style of politics is not explicitly on the agenda and would probably fall under “any other business,” he is looming over almost every single thing the leaders will discuss today.
What is meant to be primarily a discussion on defence is therefore likely to at least touch upon questions on broader relationship with the US under Trump, after a frantic weekend during which he imposed “the most beautiful word in the dictionary”, tariffs, on Canada, China, and Mexico. They are due to kick in tomorrow.
Trump made it abundantly clear overnight that the EU is next, saying he would “definitely” go ahead with tariffs on the bloc “very soon” as it is “out of line.” “They take almost nothing, and we take everything,” he said in his unique style. “I wouldn’t say there’s a timeline, but it is going to be pretty soon,” he added.
The EU has previously signalled that it would retaliate and “respond firmly”. EU trade ministers are meeting in Warsaw on Tuesday, but it will be up to the leaders to decide the line on this and how much, if at all, they want to poke the bear further by turning only to European suppliers in defence.
In the meantime, the retreat on Monday also marks another occasion with British prime minister Keir Starmer attending an EU summit for the first time since Brexit five years ago. He will call upon all allies to “step up,” and urge EU leaders to “keep up the pressure” on Russian president Vladimir Putin to bring peace in the Ukraine war.
He will only join for a “working dinner” to discuss EU-UK defence, but his EU counterparts may also want to ask him on the sidelines to say a word or two about how he’s worked his charm on Trump.
The US president repeated on Sunday that while the UK was also “out of line,” “that one can be worked out,” and praised his relationship with Starmer, who is apparently “very nice.”
And as if all of that was not complicated or challenging enough, despite all the talk about potential thawing in relations with the former member state, the EU is reportedly considering stalling a new defence and security pact with the UK because of a dispute over fishing rights.
No one said it would be easy.
As this morning’s newsletter from the Polish daily newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza depressingly notes, “Tomorrow was meant to be better, but it isn’t.”
Elsewhere in Europe, we will be looking at the situation in France, where prime minister François Bayrou is expected to try to push his budget through without a vote using a little constitutional mechanism 49.3. Watch out for reactions and if there is an attempt to force a confidence vote on the back of it, which could even see him gone by the end of the week.
I will also keep an eye on the situation in Greece, where authorities are on high alert after hundreds of seismic tremors in Santorini, with fears that a bigger earthquake could be coming soon. Let’s hope not.
It’s Monday, 3 February 2025, and this is Europe live. It’s Jakub Krupa here.
Good morning.
