IS IT ON?
While we still haven’t heard the official starting gun for this year’s federal election, you’d do very well to avoid the subject this morning as the vast majority of news sites have led overnight on different themes surrounding the imminent polling day.
The ABC has made a significant deal of the latest YouGov modelling, splashing its website yesterday and into this morning with: “Peter Dutton most likely to be next prime minister, according to YouGov poll”.
The broadcaster says the modelling finds Dutton’s Coalition would likely win around 73 seats, with a lower estimate of 65 and an upper estimate of 80. It adds YouGov’s MRP model reckons there’s a 78% chance of a hung parliament, and a 19% chance of the Coalition winning a majority.
Explaining the result, the ABC says: “The model is not a forecast of the election result, but it lays out where the imminent election campaign will be most hotly contested. It is based on a poll of 40,689 Australians, with the MRP, or multi-level regression with poststratification, modelling the survey’s results across the demographics of all 150 electorates. It produces an estimate of the number of seats each party would win in Parliament.”
For Labor, the modelling indicates the party would hold about 66 seats, with a lower estimate of 59 and an upper estimate of 72.
Responding to the results, Dutton told Sky News on Sunday that if the Coalition did indeed exceed 72 seats (76 are required to govern in majority) and was “a number of seats ahead of the Labor Party”, it would be “unusual” for crossbenchers not to offer confidence and supply to his party.
Guardian Australia highlights that if the forecast is accurate it would leave Dutton needing to gain the support of at least two crossbench MPs to form a minority government. While for Albanese it flags: “If YouGov’s polling is reflected in the results of the federal election, which must be held on or before 17 May, it means Albanese would have to secure the support of nearly every crossbencher in the lower house to govern — a scenario that would be incredibly challenging.”
Dutton said in his interview with 60 Minutes on Sunday he would have conversations with Bob Katter, Dai Le and teal MP Allegra Spender in the event neither major party wins at least 75 seats.
“We’ll talk with the crossbench but I can promise you that it’s clear from their voting pattern, Kate Chaney, Zoe Daniel, Monique Ryan, 80% of the time, they support the Greens. They will never come our way,” Dutton also told Sky.
In terms of those crossbenchers potentially targeted by Dutton, Le told Guardian Australia: “Should my community give me the opportunity to represent them again, then I will continue fighting for them, with whoever governs.”
Then again… the ABC highlights the YouGov modelling actually suggests Labor “is on track to take back the seats of Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith, as well as potentially the seat of Fowler, currently held by independent Dai Le”.
Meanwhile, Spender told ABC’s Insiders: “I’m very open to working with … a Coalition government, and I’m open to working with the Labor government, but that depends on what they’re actually going to put on the table and the seriousness, frankly, of what they’re putting on the table as well.”
There’s an awful lot of information and data that can be poured over in the YouGov model and unfortunately we don’t have the time or space in the Worm, but you can find it all here.
In other polling, The Australian led overnight on its latest Newspoll, which suggests Albanese’s approval rating has hit a “record low of minus 21”, while “a majority of voters do not believe the federal Labor government deserves to be reelected”.
The paper does say that its polling, like YouGov, does not show voters swinging behind Dutton enough to deliver the Coalition a majority government.
In other election news, Guardian Australia reports Climate 200 will help bankroll independent candidates in four Labor seats as it plans to back 35 campaigns this election. One of those seats is Franklin in southern Tasmania, where the group plans to support former journalist and anti-salmon farming campaigner Peter George in his bid to unseat Agriculture Minister Julie Collins.
The ABC reported on Saturday Albanese has written to the salmon industry to confirm federal environmental laws will be introduced which ensure the continuation of salmon farming operations off Tasmania’s west coast.
And on Friday, the national broadcaster revealed independent candidates have recorded a surge in donations after the Labor government’s election spending caps passed Parliament with the support of the Coalition, much to the anger of the crossbench.
Elsewhere, The Australian says it understands Treasurer Jim Chalmers has been telling colleagues not to speculate ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decision tomorrow, in an effort to manage expectations and defend the government from claims it is trying to pressure the bank.
That RBA decision comes at 2.30pm AEDT tomorrow, FYI. It will be all anyone talks about.
The Saturday Paper says Labor has outpaced the Coalition with a rush of advertisements during this unofficial election campaign as party strategists believe focusing on Dutton is the key to their success. The paper states: “Adamant that Labor cannot allow the election to become a referendum on cost of living pressures over the past three years, senior Labor strategists believe their campaign must shift the focus from economic grievances to a stark choice between Albanese and Dutton that frames the contest as a decision about character, vision and trust.”
Said strategists apparently believe current polling to be “fluid” (which is very handy given all of the above) and most voters have yet to seriously consider their final choice in the election, the paper reports.
Talking of Dutton (he was everywhere this weekend, from reaction to the YouGov modelling, to the Sky News interview, to profiles in the News Corp tabloids), the opposition leader denied during the aforementioned 60 Minutes interview with Karl Stefanovic he was Australia’s answer to Donald Trump saying: “Well, that might be a Labor line but it’s just not true. I don’t believe I am. I grew up under John Howard’s wing. I worked closely with Peter Costello as assistant treasurer, so I think that’s more my role model than others around the world.”
The Nine papers highlight the major party leaders’ use of their families and personal lives during the weekend to make an impression on undecided voters as election speculation reaches a crescendo. In contrast to Dutton’s approach, the Sydney Morning Herald flags Albanese posted a Valentine’s Day video on social media with his fiancee Jodie Haydon.
IN OTHER NEWS…
I appreciate that’s an awful lot of information… I told you election fever had hit.
A brief summary of other things making the news this morning: The Age reports the government’s plans to threaten the US tech giants with significant charges have been paused as Australia’s ambassador to the US, Kevin Rudd, “works to stave off trade retaliation from the Trump administration”.
The paper claims “the Albanese government has decided to go slow on a scheme to hit digital platforms if they refuse to pay local media outlets for news articles”, in what it says is “the first shift in Australian policymaking following Donald Trump’s election”.
Officials have apparently claimed the government will not move forward with designing the news bargaining incentive until the furore over Trump’s threatened tariffs dies down. For its part, the Albanese government declared: “The government is continuing to work constructively with stakeholders on the news bargaining incentive.”
As the government continues to consider the prospect of steel and aluminium tariffs from next month (which, if Trump does go ahead and put on Australia, could land bang in the middle of the election campaign in a significant dent to Albanese. Alternatively, if Albanese scores an exemption it would be very handy timing indeed), as mentioned above, all eyes will be firmly on the RBA tomorrow.
The AFR reports the money markets yesterday implied a 96% chance the central bank will reduce the cash rate from 4.35% to 4.1% on Tuesday, with inflation cooling faster than expected.
“The majority of economists polled by The Australian Financial Review tip a rate cut. But they also caution that the odds are more even than money markets imply, and this monetary easing cycle will be short and shallow,” the paper states.
Finally, in a wrap of global affairs, the BBC reports European leaders will meet in France on Monday for an emergency summit following Trump’s call with Putin and the pair’s apparent attempts to try and end the war in Ukraine.
Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine has said European leaders would be consulted but not take part in any talks between the US and Russia over ending the war, the broadcaster added.
Russian and American officials are meeting in Saudi Arabia this week and Ukraine has not been invited to the talks, the BBC says.
ON A LIGHTER NOTE…
Have you seen the footage of the man being swallowed by a whale? You may well have done — it has been absolutely everywhere since Friday.
In case you missed it, here it is.
Adrián Simancas, 23, was kayaking through the Strait of Magellan, off Chile’s Patagonian coast, with his father when a humpback whale ate him. The Venezuelan told the BBC he was paddling along and then it felt like something “hit me from behind, closing in on me and sinking me”.
“I closed my eyes, and when I opened them again, I realised I was inside the whale’s mouth. I felt a slimy texture brush my face,” he said. Simancas claimed all he could see was dark blue and white and while he was trying to work out what he could do about his predicament, he felt himself suddenly rising to the surface again.
“I was a little afraid of whether I would be able to hold my breath because I didn’t know how deep I was, and I felt like it took me a long time to come up. I went up for two seconds, and finally I got to the surface and realised that it hadn’t eaten me,” he added.
Brazilian conservationist Roched Jacobson Seba told the BBC Simancas was ejected so quickly because a humpback whale’s throat is “about the size of a household pipe” and something like a kayak would have been “physically impossible to swallow”.
Say What?
He who saves his country does not violate any law.
Donald Trump
The US president posted the statement across social media at the weekend. As The New York Times points out: “The quote is a variation of one sometimes attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte, although its origin is unclear.” Regardless of its origin, America continues to flirt with the prospect of a full-blown constitutional crisis.
CRIKEY RECAP
A News Corp operation sending an “undercover Jewish man” to a popular Egyptian cafe this week backfired when staff called the police following an altercation with Daily Telegraph journalists.
Internal files seen by Crikey show the outlet planned to use covert video-recording eyewear in the making of the story, which it internally named “UNDERCOVERJEW” and sketched out a week in advance.
Earlier this week, the head chef at Cairo Takeaway in Newtown, Sydney, posted footage to social media of an argument between Cairo staff and a News Corp journalist, videographer and the undercover individual after they had left the cafe.
The attack on health funding — both domestically and internationally — reflects the MAGA mentality at work. It is incapable of conceiving government as a positive tool that can be used for public benefit: government is instead a rort that either delivers for you and people like you or delivers for other groups rather than you — in which case it must be destroyed. The Trump administration, even more so than the first time around, is an exercise in distorting the US federal government to deliver outcomes for Trump and his cronies, and shutting down or wrecking those parts of government that do not deliver for him.
The toll will be revealed in health statistics in years to come — but by then they will just be numbers, rather than the lost and ruined lives of sons, daughters, mothers, fathers, brothers and sisters.
For some reason no-one is paying much attention to young women in this election, instead focusing on young men. The media seems to have decided that gen Z and millennial men will determine the election outcome, anticipating Dutton’s relationship with this cohort.
An example of how this is playing out: in late January, while Peggy Sue was going viral, the reporting of an AFR/Freshwater poll hyped up Dutton’s supposed appeal with young men while ignoring the telling responses from young women. Women gave both major party leaders very negative approval ratings, and indicated they were equally as likely to vote for the Greens as for Labor. Given the major parties’ primary vote is rapidly declining, you’d think these insights would command more attention.
Wreaking a bit of meme-based havoc is just one way to demonstrate you have influence and can shift opinion. Other young women are organising with their peers in more traditional ways, intent on leveraging their influence for change in representation.
READ ALL ABOUT IT
Ten dead after welfare glitch ignored by government (The Saturday Paper)
Convicted murderer among three members of NZYQ cohort to be resettled in Nauru under deal struck by Labor (Guardian Australia)
Victoria Police chief commissioner Shane Patton resigns effective immediately (The Age)
Monday mayhem: More Sydney train chaos looms as unions win legal fight (The Sydney Morning Herald)
Drum beats and politics: How RBA rate calls are really made (AFR)
Growing up Murdoch (The Atlantic)
THE COMMENTARIAT
Election funding legislation unifies major parties before they head to the polls — Laura Tingle (ABC): This week we have seen them engage in a monumental “taking out the trash” moment by rushing through scandalously self-serving legislation on election funding on the second-last sitting day of the parliamentary calendar before either a budget, or an election, or possibly both.
A positively buoyant prime minister was bouncing around Parliament House on Thursday looking more cheerful than he has in months, having landed hate crime laws, electoral funding changes, and childcare funding, prompting an outbreak of frenzied speculation that we are about to go to the polls.
Beyond the legislative wins, the sense that — in the machismo of parliamentary question time — the government had actually finished the week on top, seemed to also be contributing to the PM’s good mood.
Why’s that? Well, think about the stories that have been dominating the news in the past couple of weeks.
Trump, Jung and the bully egotists ruling the world — Bob Brown (The Saturday Paper): Brutes such as Trump rely on everyone else suppressing their better natures. Popular uprisings to defend or restore democracy can succeed or be crushed but are tough going once the bully egotist has power. We are entering a new age of civil insurrection.
Showing humility to hubris, decency to demagoguery and reason to arrogance is a losing strategy. Intelligent and confrontational action is required, and these days that requirement is global — as is the fundamental conscious wish for peace and universal understanding.
The local and global populace must provide strong, humane leaders to take power from the bullies through the ballot box or civil disobedience. The old truism is taunting us all as never before: all that evil needs to flourish is for good people to do nothing.
