Dow Jones futures and S&P 500 futures fell slightly Wednesday morning, while Nasdaq futures edged higher. The CPI inflation report for January is on tap. DoorDash and Upstart Holdings headlined notable earnings overnight.
The stock market rally was narrowly mixed Tuesday, with the major indexes still rangebound. Fed chief Jerome Powell, in his first day of congressional testimony, largely reiterated his Fed meeting comments that policymakers are in "no hurry" to cut rates again.
Shopify reversed higher on earnings Tuesday to close above a buy point. But AI chipmaker Astera Labs tumbled despite strong earnings and guidance.
Tesla sold off again Tuesday, clearly breaking down, with Elon Musk seemingly focused on his DOGE role with the Trump administration. Shares kept falling early Wednesday
Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures dipped 0.1% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures edged lower and Nasdaq 100 futures rose a fraction.
Crude oil fell more than 1%.
The Labor Department will release the January CPI inflation report at 8:30 a.m. ET. Fed chief Powell will have his second day of congressional testimony, with any new comments about the CPI data relevant.
Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
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Earnings
DASH stock jumped in overnight trade, signaling a record high. DoorDash earnings were in line, but revenue and orders beat. In Tuesday's regular session, DoorDash stock edged up 0.2% to 193.09, slightly extended from a flat-base buy point of 181.78.
Confluent topped earnings views and guided higher. CFLT stock spiked in premarket action, flashing multiple buy signals. Shares fell 4.3% to 30.11 on Tuesday. On Monday, Confluent stock flirted with a 32.10 entry. The real-time streaming data platform has a 34.08 handle on an 11-month, 49%-deep consolidation. Investors could view the handle as its own base, with 32.10 as its handle buy point.
UPST stock skyrocketed overnight, gapping toward the top of a base after AI-based lender Upstart reported a surprise profit. Upstart stock fell 5.1% to 67.34 on Tuesday, back below the 50-day line. UPST stock has a traditional consolidation buy point of 88.95.
Super Micro Computer reported preliminary Q4 results and cut 2025 estimates, but is bullish on next year. The AI server maker and Nvidia partner also plans to sell $700 million in convertible debt via private placement.
SMCI stock leapt early Wednesday. Shares dived 9.5% on Tuesday, snapping a five-day win streak. Supermicro, still facing big accounting concerns, has retaken the 50-day line but is below its 200-day.
Stock Market Rally
The stock market rally was narrowly mixed Tuesday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3% in Tuesday's stock market trading. The S&P 500 index edged higher, trading between record highs and the 50-day. The Nasdaq composite fell 0.4%, just holding the 50-day line.
All the major indexes continue to trade within Friday's downside reversal.
The small-cap Russell 2000 lost 0.5%, adding more distance from a declining 50-day line and undercutting Friday's low.
U.S. crude oil prices rose 1.4% to $73.32 a barrel.
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed four basis points to 4.54%, up 11.5 basis points over four sessions.
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ETFs
Among growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF sank 2%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF gave up 1%, with Confluent in the IGV ETF. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF edged up 0.1%.
ARK Innovation declined 2.2% and ARK Genomics lost 1.2%. Tesla stock is the No. 1 holding across ARK Invest's ETFs. Shopify also is a top-10 component.
The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF fell 0.75%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF climbed 0.8%, and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund dipped 0.2%.
The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund gained a fraction. The Financial Select SPDR ETF advanced 0.25%.
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Tesla Stock
Shares fell slightly early Wednesday.
Tesla stock tumbled 6.3% on Tuesday to 328.50, its lowest since late November. Shares are now 33% below their Dec. 18 all-time high.
TSLA stock no longer has a base but is in a sharp downturn for now. It's digging into a support area from when Tesla paused for a few weeks after the initial postelection spike.
Investors who bought on the Nov. 6 postelection breakout have seen the bulk of a 200-point gain disappear — mostly since the end of January — if they didn't take at least some profits in the past three months.
The relative strength line for Tesla stock is at a three-month low.
CEO Elon Musk appears to be focused on his role with the Trump administration, with his comments on his social site X almost entirely political in nature.
Tesla sales have tumbled in Europe to start 2025, a sign that Musk's comments and actions are further damaging the brand there as well as in the U.S. Meanwhile, Musk-fueled optimism about Tesla robotaxis by midyear may be waning. China EV giant BYD announcing this week that it's deploying driver-assist systems in EVs as low as $10,000 at no added cost also could be a factor.
EV Giant Breaks Out On Self-Driving Push. It's Not Tesla.
What To Do Now
The stock market rally continues to be choppy. On any given day, your portfolio might outperform or underperform the broader indexes, but chances are the choppy action is affecting your holdings as well.
If your existing stocks, especially longer-term positions, are holding up, you don't need to take action, but pay attention and have your game plan for scaling out.
Aside from a few exceptions like Shopify stock, few stocks flashed new buy signals Tuesday. In any case, the choppy market makes new positions higher risk. Some may work out but others will struggle or crumble.
Keep working on watchlists. You don't want to press hard now, but be ready for the next strong uptrend.
The CPI inflation report could be a catalyst to break the market out of its trading range, or a non-event.
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Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.
