Dow Jones futures fell sharply Monday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, as China warned other countries not to side with the U.S. in the escalating trade war. Tesla, Google-parent Alphabet and T-Mobile US headline hundreds of earnings reports this week.
Netflix will trade after reporting strong earnings late Thursday. NFLX stock rose early Monday, moving toward a buy point.
The stock market saw significant losses last week for the major indexes after they hit resistance.
Trump Tariffs, Trade War
Trump tariffs continue to drive a volatile, weak market, with trade headlines still front and center. Overnight, China warned other countries not to strike trade deals with the U.S. at Beijing's expense. The Trump administration has been seeking to isolate China even as it imposes huge duties on goods from other countries.
Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said his country won't keep making concessions to reach a deal with the U.S., signaling some frustration following a first round of talks last week. A second round is expected to take place before the end of April, with the negotiations closely watched by other countries.
Earnings calls will be key, as investors look for insight into how businesses are handling Trump tariffs, and what they're seeing and hearing from their customers and suppliers. Boeing, General Electric, RTX, SAP and ServiceNow are among the many other big reports.
Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures fell 1% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures declined 1.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures retreated 1.4%.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose several basis points to 4.4%. The U.S. dollar fell solidly, continuing a significant sell-off in recent weeks, lifting gold and bitcoin.
Crude oil futures fell more than 2%.
Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
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Stock Market
The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 2.7% in last week's stock market trading. The S&P 500 index gave up 1.5%. The Nasdaq composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 1.1%.
Nvidia export curbs and Fed chief Jerome Powell's tariff-driven economic concerns — and President Donald Trump's not-so-veiled threats in response — drove Wednesday's sell-off. UnitedHealth Group dived on weak guidance, adding to Dow losses Thursday.
A stock market rally attempt continues as long as the major indexes hold above their April 7 lows, but there has been no follow-through day yet.
The market may simply need more time, perhaps even another leg down, before a sustained uptrend takes hold. That could involve a tradable rally, with the S&P 500 running up to, say, the 200-day moving average before falling back.
There are a number of stocks showing strength. That includes growth stocks such as Netflix, Palantir Technologies and Spotify, but also some biotechs, aerospace and insurance plays, to name a few.
The 10-year Treasury yield retreated 17 basis points to 4.325%.
U.S. crude oil futures jumped 5.2% to $64.68 a barrel last week.
Tesla Earnings Due With Focus On This As BYD Growth Booms
Tesla Earnings
Tesla earnings are on tap Tuesday late. Analysts now sees EPS down 4% to 43 cents a share, though more recent forecasts point to a larger slide. Revenue should rise 1% to $21.45 billion, but the sharp consensus is for a small decline.
Late Friday, Reuters reported that Tesla will delay its upcoming "affordable" EV by at least three months. Tesla had said it planned production of a lower-cost vehicle by mid-year, but various reports suggested it would come in late 2025 or 2026. The latest report said production will start in the U.S., followed by China and Europe.
The EV giant has not given any details about the EV, but multiple reports have said it'll be a stripped-down Model Y rather than a new form factor, like a hatchback.
As usual, the focus will be on the earnings call. Will CEO Elon Musk stick to his forecast for unsupervised, self-driving ride hailing in Austin this June? Will Tesla offer any details about the "affordable" vehicle? Does Musk still see delivery growth in 2025 after a weak Q1 and sluggish start to April? How will Tesla Energy handle big tariffs on Chinese batteries?
Tesla stock fell 4.3% to 241.37 last week, down 40.2% so far in 2025. TSLA stock is below all its key moving averages.
On Monday, Barclays cut its Tesla stock price target to 275 from 325, citing Q1 earnings as a negative catalyst. Shares fell solidly before the open.
Meanwhile, Tesla archrival rival BYD will likely report Q1 earnings on Wednesday. The EV giant recently estimated that Q1 net income would rise 86%-119% vs. a year earlier, suggesting another quarter of accelerating earnings growth.
BYD stock slumped 4.8% last week to 45.78, back below the 50-day line but not too far from record highs. BYD is up 34.65% in 2025.
Tesla stock is the No. 1 holding across ARK Invest's ETFs. Cathie Wood's ARK also owns a small stake in BYD stock.
Time The Market With IBD's ETF Market Strategy
Google Earnings
Google parent Alphabet's earnings are due Thursday night, with investors expecting modest EPS and revenue growth. Google Cloud, AI efforts and management commentary on the potential for significant antitrust divestitures are all key.
Google stock has been tumbling since early February, falling 3.8% last week. GOOGL stock is down 20.15% in 2025.
T-Mobile Earnings
T-Mobile earnings are due Thursday night. Analysts expected a 24% gain with revenue up 5%. Wireless subscriber growth will be key.
T-Mobile stock is in a flat base with a 276.49 buy point, according to MarketSurge, with a 272.60 early entry. Shares rose 1.3% to 262.04 last week, just above the 50-day line. TMUS stock is up 18.7% so far in 2025.
Larger, slower-growing rivals Verizon and AT&T will report earlier in the week.
The wireless giants are all relatively insulated from Trump tariffs and somewhat resistant to recessions.
S&P 500 Hot Stock Leads Five Names To Watch
What To Do Now
What investors need is a clear market uptrend, emphasis on trend. One good day or intraday bounce off lows is not a trend.
The major indexes are off lows, but they remain in downtrends and below key levels. Even if there is a confirmed market rally, which could happen at any time, step in gradually. The risks of a failed follow-through day are high, given the violent sell-off and extreme moves on Trump tariff headlines and other news.
Earnings season only adds to the potential volatility. Investors are hungry for guidance, but companies may not offer much clarity, especially beyond the next quarter, as they grapple with massive, ongoing global changes that could intensify or reverse.
Look for stocks with relative strength as you build up your watchlists. There are a number of stocks standing out, including Netflix and T-Mobile, but if the market heads toward new lows they likely will buckle too.
Netflix stock is on the IBD Leaderboard watchlist and on the IBD Big Cap 20.
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