Has the emergence of an opportunity to unlock millions from Argentina, with Franco Colapinto as the bait, sealed Jack Doohan's fate at Alpine? Many in the paddock now see it as an almost inevitable scenario: if Doohan underperforms in the first few races – or even if he is just unspectacular – Flavio Briatore will make a move, replacing him with his new protégé and in turn opening the floodgates of South American sponsorship money. Nothing personal – just business.
Formula 1 is not always about sport. More often than not, it's about money. And while it is certain that the Argentinean has put himself in a good position thanks to his stint with Williams, Renault also has a clear interest in the South American market. Having a driver from the region can be seen as a good strategic opportunity, and the team's desire to capitalise on it is understandable.
Colapinto's speed is an additional but necessary factor in this case. His unexpected debut in F1 may not have been flawless, but it was enough to put him not only on Alpine's radar, but also on Red Bull's - and, crucially, to put F1 back in the spotlight in Argentina.
The chain of events that unfolded between Colapinto and Alpine encourages speculation about the next chapter in the story. The rumours of Briatore's interest in Colapinto's services appeared long before he finally joined the team, and the confirmation only strengthened the effect: the paddock gossiped about the reasons for this interest, with Argentinean money being mentioned in almost every conversation. The subsequent signing seemed to confirm: yes, everything is happening exactly as predicted.
At the same time, it became almost common knowledge that Doohan's contract contained a clause that he could be released after five or six races. Some even explained Alpine's decision to put him in the car in Abu Dhabi last year as an early attempt by the new bosses to give him a chance to "fail" as soon as possible.
All of this speculation has, in one form or another, led to a huge amount of press coverage. So, when Doohan faced the media for the first time this winter, it was clear that instead of the usual rookie questions about how it feels to be an F1 driver and how he's coping with the fame, the Australian was relentlessly interrogated about Colapinto and the pressure his presence in the team generates.
"Don't you feel undermined at all by Franco being there?" he was asked during the F1 75 press conference. "Because it's very unusual to have a 21-year-old reserve driver on a long-term contract who raced last season and wants to race again as soon as possible."
He had to come out fighting.
"Is that a question?" he grinned, having already given the answer that pressure is a reality for all drivers, regardless of whether they have an Argentinean talent waiting on the bench next to them.
That approach was then praised by Oliver Oakes, who clearly sought to push the narrative that speculation about Doohan being replaced by Colapinto was the work of certain "keyboard warriors" spreading bold assumptions that the rookie's days with the team were numbered.
But while he's been brilliant in his role, those keyboard warriors wouldn't have weapons if Alpine hadn't provided them. And it's not just the facts that paint a picture of an impending threat.
Oakes' boss, Flavio Briatore, has an almost-love affair with Colapinto on Instagram, sharing pictures from around the world: they pose together after signing the deal, then the Italian shares a video from Colapinto's TPC test in Barcelona, and then another picture from Monaco, where they stand in front of a wall with a "Love is the answer" sign in the background.
In a 30-second video shared on Alpine's social media channels about Luca de Meo's visit to Enstone in early January, both the Renault CEO and Flavio spoke not about the main race drivers, but Colapinto.
"Franco for me is one of the best young, quick drivers for the future," Briatore said.
There hardly is another reserve driver in F1 who gets so much love from his bosses – and it's probably fair to say that there's enough substance for Doohan to be at least a little jealous.
And, of course, there is a post on Flavio's Instagram page dedicated to the signing of Mercado Libre – Argentina's leading e-commerce company and one of Colapinto's backers – as a sponsor.
So the warriors Oakes likes to mention, at least, are not the only ones contributing to the hype around Colapinto.
It all adds up, doesn't it? Colapinto was successfully lured away from Williams and given a three-year contract. What young driver signs such a long contract just to sit on the bench? And the money is already coming in from Argentina. So there's only one formality left: for Doohan to vacate his seat.
Or is there? There's still some doubt as to whether Argentinean sponsors will actually flood Alpine with cash. For now, there's no sign of any companies besides Mercado Libre joining the team's sponsorship portfolio.
It is understood that the team has been in contact with Globant, but that company already sponsors F1 itself, and so far those discussions have not resulted in anything concrete. And national oil company YPF, which supported Colapinto in the junior series, isn't likely to join, as Alpine has already signed a major deal with Eni that essentially excludes partnerships with other companies in the same sector.
Meanwhile, the team itself is trying to shield Doohan from the pressure as much as possible - and during the same press conference at the F1 75 event, the team's PR representative shut down the third consecutive Colapinto-related question directed at the Australian. Motorsport.com understands that this policy will continue, as it's clear that similar questions are likely to be repeated at Doohan's home race in Melbourne.
As for Briatore, there's really nothing new in his conduct, as it's a modus operandi for the Italian to put pressure on his drivers. And, in theory, Colapinto could be just as much of a threat to Pierre Gasly – but it's just assumed that the Frenchman will be well ahead of his team-mate.
It's also clear that Doohan was not at the top of Alpine's list to partner Gasly in 2025, as the team pushed to sign Carlos Sainz. However, it's evident that the Australian has made a strong case for himself through his work behind the scenes. He has earned a reputation as a very good simulator driver, and insiders praise not only his contribution to Alpine's development rate over the past year, but also his efforts during race weekends. During the Monaco Grand Prix, for example, Doohan worked at the factory until 3am to find the right set-up for the qualifying – and then headed to the track after only an hour's sleep to fulfil his reserve driver duties.
In what Oakes described as a "punchy" performance at the F1 75 press conference, Doohan denied feeling under pressure despite having a 21-year-old third driver in the team.
"I was a 21-year-old reserve last year with a long-term contract," he replied before the Alpine PR representative asked the media to change the subject. "But no, I don't. Maybe I should? I don't know. I don't really understand that as a question, but yeah, definitely not."
And while you're free to believe that this was nothing more than a brave speech, it's the only correct approach in his situation.
For now, Colapinto remains Alpine's reserve driver. And it's up to him to prove his worth to his new employer, whether it's in TPC outings or on the simulator. Funnily enough, part of his job is to actually make Doohan look better by assisting him from the factory when he's on sim duties during race weekends - but it's also something that won't go unnoticed, especially given the affection he's getting from the bosses.
On top of those TPC outings, Motorsport.com understands Colapinto will attend the races in Australia and China as a reserve driver, which is sure to provide the F1 broadcast team with opportunities for dramatic cutaways: a shot of the Argentinean watching from the garage is guaranteed after every Doohan lock-up.
There's definitely a lot more pressure on him than on most other drivers, and despite Oakes' defensive tactics, when given the opportunity to quash paddock rumours that Doohan had been given five races to prove himself, he ultimately didn't take it.
"I think we’ve been really honest as a team about what we’re doing," he said in response to a direct question. “I keep saying it, but it would be nice to just let Jack get on with it - and also let the team get on with it, to be honest.”
Regardless of how widespread the rumour is, only a small group of people really know what is in Doohan's contract with Alpine. Having performance clauses in such contracts is nothing unusual in F1, and given that Alpine was virtually Doohan's only realistic F1 career option, it's hard to imagine that his contract offers him bulletproof protection should his bosses consider replacing him anyway.
Regardless, Doohan has one key and undeniable advantage: it's him - not Colapinto - who will be driving the car in Australia, and most likely for the next few rounds of the championship. And F1, as much a business as a sport, still rewards performance. What Oakes and Briatore want most from the team is to finish as high up in the constructors' championship as possible, because that is the easiest way to boost the team's budget through the FOM prize fund.
Although the media is full of reports suggesting that the decision has already been made, the reality may be different. After all, at the end of last year there were plenty of reports suggesting that Colapinto was already set to replace Sergio Perez at Red Bull.
What's clear for now is that the Argentine has put himself in a good position thanks to his stint with Williams. It seems that Alpine even agreed to pay the Grove-based team compensation to secure his services for the next three years - and they certainly wouldn't have done so if they didn't see him as a potential race driver. He could also help open doors to lucrative deals in South America. But for now, that may be all he has - rather than any sort of guarantee that he will soon be behind the wheel of one of Alpine's F1 cars.
"I mean, I get that everybody has an opinion," Oakes said in Bahrain. "[But] it's very simple, isn't it? We're here to go racing. We want the best driver in the car, the best engine in the car. Flavio said it, didn’t he? We’re starting the season with Jack and Pierre, and then let’s see how it all goes."
And there may be more truth in these words than in the paddock rumours.
