SEATTLE - One day before the 2024 presidential elections took place, then-presidential candidate Donald Trump spoke to a crowd in North Carolina about his plans to curb the flow of illegal immigration into the United States and the role Mexico would play in his scheme.
In his speech, Trump vowed to immediately impose 25% tariffs on all goods from Mexico as punishment if the country did not help contain migrants on its side of the border. He added the proposal has an "100% chance of working," because in case Mexico rejects the tariffs, he would keep on increasing them. "If that doesn't work, I'll make it 50, and if that does work, I'll make it 75 for the tough guys. Then I'll make it 100," he added.
According to experts and analysts, Trump's victory could be a " nightmare scenario" for Mexico, as his threats could prove to be much more real this time around than in 2016, when he was first elected president.
After elections results were made official, Trump said in a speech that nothing would stop him from keeping his word, with illegal immigration being one of the main promises he made to earn a second term in the White House.
During his first term, Trump's administration tried to force Mexico to accept "safe third country" status, which would allow asylum seekers in the U.S. be returned to Mexico while their claims are processed. Although Mexican officials called it a "red line," then-President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) agreed to Trump's Remain in Mexico policy and ordered the deployment of thousands of troops to both northern and southern borders to help curb the flow of migrants entering the U.S.
But under new leadership and a different economic climate, experts argue that Mexico could see itself backed into a corner where Trump's demands both on immigration and the economy would significantly impact the country's prosperity since Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has previously suggested Mexico will not give in.
"We obviously are going to address any problems that come up with dialogue, as a collaborative process, and if not, we are going to stand up, we are prepared to do that with great unity," Sheinbaum said.
. Experts say that tariffs, plus Trump's plans to conduct a mass deportation of migrants, would cause Mexico to enter a recession.
"Mexico is looking at it through the lens of economic logic. The logic that the Trump campaign applies on immigration is a logic of national security and cultural identity issues," said Martha Bárcena, Mexico's ambassador to the U.S. between 2018 and 2021.
Bárcena added that Mexican officials who believe Trump might change his campaign promises just because of how important Mexican migrants are for the U.S. economy are being "overly optimistic."
Advocacy groups have also raised their concerns over Trump's promises to hit Mexico with tariffs as well as his plans to conduct a mass-deportation.
"Make no mistake: Mass deportations will harm the millions targeted by Donald Trump, the families and communities they are part of — and every person in our country. They will rip parents from their children, destroy businesses and livelihoods, and devastate the fabric of our nation and our economy," said Juan Proaño, CEO of the League of United Latin American Citizens, the oldest Hispanic civil rights organization in the United States.
Potential federal enforcement
Despite Trump's threats, officials in U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) have not commented on any potential new policies or preparations.
Both entities would be central to Trump's deportation plans, but top leadership is not expected to change until January 20, when Trump will officially take office.
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