AS Donald Trump returned to the Oval Office, he wasted no time in steering the United States – and by extension, the world – into turbulent waters. With sweeping executive orders, provocative rhetoric and a penchant for misinformation, the second Trump presidency is already delivering seismic aftershocks, from Washington to Holyrood.
Dr Fabian Hilfrich, senior lecturer in American History at Edinburgh University and an expert on US politics and foreign policy, sums up the danger: “He has amply proven that he is a threat to truth. He doesn’t only listen to conspiracy theories; he is one.”
Trump’s first days back in office have seen the signing of executive orders reversing key policies from his predecessor, Joe Biden. On Monday, Trump announced the US withdrawal from the World Health Organisation (WHO) and reinstated steps to exit the Paris climate accord. Both moves had been signature decisions of his first term, only to be undone by Biden on his first day in office in 2021.
The impact of these decisions will ripple across borders. The US contributes nearly half the WHO’s budget, and without that funding, “it’s unclear how the WHO will cope”, says Dr Hilfrich.
On the climate front, the US rejoining the Paris Agreement in 2021 was a vital signal of renewed global co-operation. Now, with America stepping away again, the pact is on shakier ground.
These policies have implications closer to home, especially for Scotland, which has positioned itself as a leader in renewable energy. Trump’s disdain for wind power, which he has made abundantly clear in the US, could embolden opposition to similar projects abroad. “Undoubtedly, he will continue polemicising against wind power elsewhere,” Dr Hilfrich warns.
Scotland and the wider UK could also face fallout from Trump’s approach to tariffs, which he has championed as an alternative to taxes. His 2019 imposition of a 25% tariff on Scotch whisky exports to the US cost the industry more than £600 million in lost exports before being lifted in 2021. Dr Hilfrich believes similar measures may return: “I think tariffs are coming ... there’s really nothing new with Trump.”
John Swinney directly addressed tariff concerns during First Minister’s Questions on Thursday: “I’m alert to the dangers of tariffs and the damage that they can cause … It’s important to note that no new tariffs have been established but tariffs are not the answer and we urge all parties with an interest in the export of Scottish goods to come together and work towards a mutually beneficial solution.”
This poses a double-edged threat for the UK, already grappling with post-Brexit uncertainties. The much-vaunted US-UK trade deal, touted by Brexiteers as a Brexit benefit, now looks more remote than ever. Trump’s transactional view of diplomacy raises serious questions about Britain’s ability to navigate this new landscape.
“Trump will always be there for a deal,” notes Dr Hilfrich, “but only if a country opens itself up to whatever he might want to sell.”
While many of Trump’s actions appear aimed at placating his base, there is a clear performative element to his governance. “He can always say, well, I’ve tried to deliver everything on day one. .. if he gets foiled anywhere, he’ll say the deep state stopped me,” explains Dr Hilfrich. This rhetorical strategy not only fuels false mistrust in institutions but also emboldens far-right figures globally.
The pardon of January 6 rioters, another early move in Trump’s second term, has already sparked controversy. “Even his own vice-president said those who committed violent acts shouldn’t be released,” Dr Hilfrich points out. “And yet, Trump acted completely independently.”
Among those freed are individuals who openly boasted about their crimes, including tasering a police officer.
“What they’re doing is very deliberately recasting it as free speech,” Dr Hilfrich explains. He points to changes on Twitter/X, where far-right propaganda and hate speech have proliferated under Musk’s ownership, along with algorithms that amplify these messages.
“They are driving forward misinformation ... Russia and China will be really happy, as they will continue to drive their own disinformation agendas unchecked.”
For Europe – and particularly the UK – Trump’s actions cast doubt over the US’s commitment to Nato.
“Trump has made repeated noises that this is all conditional on good behaviour and payment of debts,” Hilfrich notes, raising the spectre of a more transactional US approach to European security.
This leaves the UK in a precarious position. Should it draw closer to Europe in the face of waning American support, risking backlash from Brexiteers, or attempt to navigate an increasingly volatile transatlantic relationship? Both paths are fraught with challenges.
Dr Hilfrich’s conclusion is stark: “Trump is definitely a threat to truth.”
From conspiracy-laden Covid-19 strategies to his performative governance style, Trump’s actions are reshaping the global political landscape in ways that undermine trust, stability and facts.
As Trump’s presidency progresses, one thing is clear – the world must brace for more chaos, more misinformation, and a far more unpredictable America.
