DALLAS — After a tumultuous first two-plus months of the season for Luka Doncic and the Mavericks, we’re almost back to normal discourse for this time of year — on the cusp of another All-Star nod for Doncic.
Doncic has started the NBA’s annual showcase in his All-Star appearances the last two seasons.
But a healthy complement of Western Conference guards and a subpar first half of the season — at least by Doncic’s lofty standards — has put his position for 2022 in question.
Should Doncic earn another starting spot, perhaps a third straight with Team LeBron?
Or will he miss the cut Thursday night when the NBA reveals this year’s All-Star starters on TNT and instead be a likely reserve selection by coaches the next week?
Fan (50%), player (25%) and media (25%) votes determine the two guards and three frontcourt starters in each conference.
Here’s the arguments for and against Doncic earning a third consecutive All-Star start.
The case for
At the last fan voting update Thursday, Doncic trailed the Warriors’ Steph Curry and the Grizzlies’ Ja Morant in the West guard standings.
But that’s not so on the court.
This season, the Mavericks have beaten Golden State and Memphis with all All-Star candidates active, and Doncic has shined.
He tallied 26 points, seven rebounds and eight assists while helping the Mavericks hold the Warriors’ potent offense to 82 points in their Jan. 5 Dirk Night victory. Three outings later, he shot 54.5% from the field while logging a 27-point, 13-rebound, 10-assist triple-double in Memphis to snap the Grizzlies’ 11-game winning streak.
Need more proof? Doncic dropped 37 points, 11 rebounds, nine assists, three steals and a block Monday night in his final head-to-head battle with Morant.
That’s All-Star starter-level production.
While Doncic’s shooting efficiency, conditioning and health have hit low points this season, he returned at the start of the new calendar year with improved energy and determination.
This month, he’s averaging 25.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, 9.2 assists and 1.5 steals across 11 games. He’s the only guard to rank in the top 15 of the first three categories during that span with each of his averages higher than Curry and Morant.
Doncic has appeared to round into form just as the All-Star announcements approach.
The case against
Perhaps we wouldn’t be especially impressed by Doncic’s recent return to dominant form had he started the season in shape and not endured ankle and knee sprains or contracted COVID-19 in the first two months.
His physical health and conditioning have been the defining factors of his overall first-half performance.
Doncic is shooting 29.1% from 3 this season — 3.5 percentage points lower than his career average (32.6%) and 5.9 percentage points lower than last year’s personal best mark (35%).
He’s also missed 15 of the Mavericks’ 47 games, already nine more than last year and a single-season career high.
Not every top guard in the West has been fully healthy, either.
Morant missed 12 consecutive games in December, for example, and the Grizzlies still managed two five-game winning streaks without him. Portland’s Damian Lillard, whom Doncic tied with in starter voting last season, is also in the midst of a long-term abdominal surgery absence.
But with Curry leading the MVP conversation at the midway point, Morant contributing highlight-reel plays on a seemingly nightly basis and Phoenix’s Devin Booker serving as the leading scorer on the NBA’s best team, Doncic might be more likely to play as an All-Star reserve instead.
