Free agency used to represent a player's greatest leverage in baseball, his mightiest bargaining chip. But during the past few months, it's now looking like his biggest fear. Or put another way, something that's best avoided, if at all possible.
How else can we explain the sport's recent craze for contract extensions? Using Clayton Kershaw as the starting point _ the Dodgers ace re-upped on Nov. 2 for three years and $93 million _ a total of 30 players, with varying service time, signed extensions worth a combined $2.2 billion.
Those are players who chose to double-down with their current teams, and in many cases, pass on the opportunity to hit the open market in the very near future. Nolan Arenado (eight years, $260M), Paul Goldschmidt (five years, $130M), Justin Verlander (two years, $66M), Chris Sale (five years, $145M) and Xander Bogaerts (six years, $120M) were supposed to be the elite of next winter's free-agent class, a mere season away from auctioning off their services to the highest bidder.
Yet they decided to stay home. No thanks.
Everyone around the game watched with great interest as the long winter felt even longer for the two marquee free agents, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. Both ultimately got what they wanted financially, with Harper's 13-year, $330 million haul and Machado's 10-year, $300 million contract. But listening to them afterward, it certainly didn't sound like they wound up with their first choice in terms of destination.
Seeing both of those negotiations play out also apparently had an effect on Mike Trout, universally regarded as the sport's top player, and a two-time MVP who was only two years from free agency himself. Realizing he was perfectly happy in SoCal, Trout simply decided to get fabulously wealthy right where he was in accepting a 12-year, $430 million deal from the Angels.
"I kind of saw what Bryce and Manny went through and it drew a red flag for me," Trout said at the news conference to announce the deal. "I talked to Manny and Bryce. It was a tough couple months in the offseason. They put it in perspective in my mind. I obviously want to be an Angel for life. That was a big key."
Locking up players like Arenado, Trout and Jacob deGrom isn't the surprising part of this recent phenomenon, however. It's the younger players at the other end of the spectrum, such as 21-year-old Ronald Acuna Jr. _ last years' NL Rookie of the Year _ accepting an eight-year, $100-million extension from the Braves. It was a record for a player his age, and a huge leap to sign away his free agency until he's 30. By comparison, Trout is 27. Harper and Machado are only 26.
But cash in hand seems like the way to go now, with players preferring not to gamble on the sport's volatile economic system in the years ahead. The Astros' Alex Bregman, who at age 24 last year finished fifth in the MVP voting, signed a five-year, $100 million extension last month. The White Sox secured top outfield prospect Eloy Jimenez, just 22, with a six-year, $43 million deal before he even played in a major league game.
Both the teams and players appear to be hedging their bets, even though we're likely still years away from significant economic changes, as the current CBA doesn't expire until December 2021. So expect this trend to continue, with GMs dangling more cash, in the hope there are relative bargains to be had with so much uncertainty in the clubhouses. And players now happy to stay put.
"It was two sides wanting to get together and build a winning environment," deGrom said of his own five-year, $137.5 million extension. "That's my goal here, is to win in New York City and play for the Mets for the rest of my career. So we were sitting there with a common goal in mind and trying to figure out a way that worked."
