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Belfast Live
Belfast Live
National
Brendan Hughes

Covid Northern Ireland: Leading GP and virologist give assessment of current status

It has been a month since all Covid-19 legal restrictions in Northern Ireland were lifted to be replaced by guidance.

While the pandemic that dominated public discourse for the past two years has fallen off the front pages, the virus is continuing to spread.

And the latest modelling suggests the percentage of people testing positive for Covid-19 in Northern Ireland has increased.

Read more: Face masks not required in Northern Ireland post-primary classrooms from March 21

Around one in 13 people had Covid-19 in the week from February 27 to March 5, according to the Department of Health's most recent infection survey.

This compares to around one in 17 people estimated to have had Covid in the preceding week.

In the department's latest weekly paper on the reproductive rate (R number) of the virus, the estimate was 0.90 to 1.10. This is an increase on the 0.80 to 0.95 during the previous seven days.

"Covid-19 case numbers have remained steady with a slight increase in the last few days in the context of a continuing fall in testing, with percentage of positive tests also stable," the report said.

"In particular there has been an increase in 0-11s following the half term break, with smaller increases in other age groups."

The report, published last week, added that hospital admissions of Covid-positive patients are "fluctuating at a relatively high level".

However, it said Covid-19 critical care occupancy "continues to fall and is now at very low levels".

So should there by any concern about the current Covid-19 picture in Northern Ireland?

Dr Alan Stout, chair of the British Medical Association's GP committee in Northern Ireland, said there are still "very significant" pressures on hospitals and he continued to urge caution.

However, he said the overall outlook appeared "far more positive now than we have been for quite some time".

"I think we're in a reasonable enough position at the moment," he said.

"There's still concern because we still have high infection numbers, and the infection numbers that are being reported are going to be an underestimate.

"We're dominated by a mild strain at the moment. We have still got a high-circulating virus but the good part is that it isn't translating into a lot of serious illness."

Dr Stout said there could be significant under-reporting of cases due to people with mild symptoms not testing or using rapid lateral flow tests and not registering the results.

He said the current dominant Omicron strain of Covid is mostly causing relatively mild illness, with a cough and high temperature still the "cardinal symptoms".

But he said biggest concern would be the possible emergence of a new variant which causes more serious disease.

"We are still encouraging people to follow the guidance," he added.

"It will protect people most vulnerable in the community. It will also help to slow or minimise further spread of the current variant and further variants as well."

Dr Lindsay Broadbent, a virologist at Queen's University Belfast, said the situation is "much better now" but added that Covid must still be carefully monitored.

She said: "I'd stress that things are in a much, much better place now than they have been. But there is still a lot that needs to be done.

"Cases are increasing again in NI and overall in the UK. While the situation is much better now, with a lower risk of hospitalisation or severe disease, admissions are rising in the UK again, not yet in NI.

"We need to keep a close eye on vaccine efficacy and waning immunity and how that impacts hospital admission. We need to monitor variants that pop up for any changes to severity."

Dr Broadbent also said more treatment options need to be developed for those who do become severely ill, and more research into long Covid and the impact of multiple infections.

She added: "In addition, we need to use this as an opportunity to future-proof for pandemics that might arise in the future, improving infrastructure and planning."

Read More: St Patrick's Day: Belfast road closures and diversions for concert and parade

Read More: Northern Ireland hospitality workers asked to keep watch for child sexual exploitation

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