A top epidemiologist has issued a stern warning that a new variant of Covid-19 is one of most infectious diseases the world has ever seen.
Professor Adrian Esterman is among the experts raising concerns about the BA.2 sub-strain of the Omicron variant.
The former World Health Organisation scientist wrote on Twitter: “Omicron BA.2 is about 1.4 times more infectious than BA.1. The basic reproduction number (R0) for BA.1 is about 8.2, making R0 for BA.2 about 12.
“This makes it pretty close to measles, the most contagious disease we know about.”
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With all of Ireland’s Covid restrictions gone and hundreds of thousands of people set to gather in Dublin city centre for the first national St Patrick’s Day parade in two years, there are concerns about post-Paddy’s Day surge.
On Tuesday, more than 16,000 new infections were confirmed - the highest daily amount since January.
Hospitals are appealing for people to not come to emergency departments unless absolutely necessary as they come under extreme pressure.
There were 1,081 people in hospital with Covid yesterday, of which 44 were in ICU.
Worryingly, the HSE said that around half of patients in hospital tested positive for Covid after being admitted for another illness.
It comes after an ominous warning from the Chief Medical Officer in his last letter to Government.
Following NPHET’s last meeting on February 17, during which it was recommended the team be stood down, Dr Tony Holohan flagged his concerns about new variants - and in particular BA.2,
On that date, 78 cases of BA.2 were found in Ireland and the CMO warned the strain “may be dominant by the last week in February”.
He wrote: “In total, approximately 60% of current infections are S-gene target negative, suggesting approximately 40% of current infections are BA.2.
“This is growing at 9.7% (7.5-12%) per day and may be dominant by the last week in February 2022.”
He added: “The Covid pandemic is not over, levels of infection remain high, a cohort of the population still remain vulnerable to more severe infection and the emergence of new variants with increased levels of transmissibility, immune escape and/or virulence remains a risk both nationally and globally.
“New SARS-CoV-2 variants will continue to emerge, and it is possible that these will include variants that are less susceptible to current vaccines, resistant to antivirals, or are associated with altered disease severity.
“As such, there will be an ongoing requirement to be able to scale up appropriate responses quickly should they be required.”
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