House Republicans won’t be able to reach their budget target needed to pass the Trump agenda without major cuts to Medicare or Medicaid, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) confirmed on Wednesday.
Last week, House Republicans took on a budget plan that aims to pass Trump’s agenda on immigration, energy, and taxes. It orders the House Energy and Commerce Committee to cut spending by $880 billion.
The CBO, a nonpartisan federal agency that provides budget and economic information to Congress, noted that when Medicare is taken off the table, the funding governed by the committee amounts to $8.8 trillion over 10 years. Medicaid makes up 93 percent of that, or $8.2 trillion.
The agency went on to say that when both Medicare and Medicaid are off the table, the committee is only in charge of $581 billion in spending, far below the target of $880 billion.
The CBO made the pronouncements in a letter to Democratic Rep. Frank Pallone of New Jersey, the ranking member of the Energy and Commerce Committee, as well as Pennsylvania Democrat Brendan Boyle, the Budget Committee ranking member.
The budget resolution was adopted by a narrow margin in the closely split House and was negotiated between rightwingers looking for significant spending cuts and Republicans in swing districts arguing that they shouldn’t cut funding for health programs that their constituents use, NBC News noted.
Changing the target would mean angering one of the sides of the party and risking losing crucial votes to pass the budget reconciliation bill, which progresses the Trump agenda.
Democrats have emphasized protecting Medicaid as a key part of their opposition to the Trump administration. They argue that Trump is trying to cut healthcare for the working class while pushing for tax cuts for the rich.
Texas Democrat Al Green was removed from the House chamber on Tuesday night during Trump’s address to a joint session of Congress after repeatedly interrupting the president and shouting, “You have no mandate to cut Medicaid.”
Medicaid provides healthcare coverage to low-income and disabled people, while Medicare provides care to seniors.
“This letter from CBO confirms what we’ve been saying all along: the math doesn’t work without devastating Medicaid cuts,” Pallone said Wednesday, according to NBC. “Republicans know their spin is a lie, and the truth is they have no problem taking health care away from millions of Americans so that the rich can get richer and pay less in taxes than they already do.”
“Medicare, Medicaid — none of that stuff is going to be touched,” Trump recently told Fox News.
However, House Republicans have pushed for cutting Medicaid.
“Medicaid is hugely problematic because it has a lot of fraud, waste and abuse,” House Speaker Mike Johnson said last week. “I think it’s $50 billion a year in fraud alone in Medicaid. Those are precious taxpayer dollars. Everybody is committed to preserving Medicare benefits for those who desperately need it and deserve it and qualify for it. What we’re talking about is rooting out the fraud, waste and abuse.”
Johnson’s office pointed to a figure from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, stating that the “improper payment rate” for Medicaid is $50.3 billion. However, a 2023 report from the agency stated: “Of the 2023 Medicaid improper payments, 82% were the result of insufficient documentation. These payments typically involve situations where a state or provider missed an administrative step and do not necessarily indicate fraud or abuse.”
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