This week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken will travel to Beijing — the latest, welcome effort by Washington to inject stability into a dangerously fraught U.S.-China relationship.
Yet despite their progress toward constructive diplomacy, the two nations’ relationship remains at the lowest point since relations were normalized in the seventies, characterized by mutual suspicion and hostility, especially when it comes to the issue of Taiwan.
A recent close encounter between a U.S destroyer and a Chinese warship in the Taiwan Strait highlights how — unless Beijing and Washington take meaningful steps to avert it — the dangerous dynamics driving the world’s two most powerful countries toward a possible crisis or conflict over Taiwan can quickly overwhelm any nascent diplomatic thaw.
The incident in question involved a potentially dangerous maneuver by the Chinese warship, which cut in front of the U.S. warship at a distance of 150 yards. This unprecedented maneuver—the first of its kind in the Taiwan Strait—reflects an escalation in Beijing’s overall efforts to challenge what it sees as an American escalation regarding Taiwan. China’s perceptions are shaped in part by an erosion of Washington’s long-standing One China policy and increased U.S. efforts to elicit greater support for its Taiwan policy from distant allies like Canada (whose warship took part in this weekend’s transit).
China’s latest action exemplifies the larger “tit-for-tat” dynamic that has come to define U.S and Chinese interactions, whereby each side doubles down on what it sees as deterrence signals that in fact only serve to provoke further such signals.
Beijing might be attempting to create a new “normal” by employing more aggressive military means to achieve a position of military dominance around Taiwan, or at least to counter what it views as U.S. efforts to militarily dominate or intimidate China in its backyard. China’s Defense Minister Li Shangfu said as much in recent remarks at the Shangri-la Dialogue following the warship incident, criticizing the U.S. for exercising “hegemony of navigation” near Taiwan and called for Washington to “take good care of its own territorial airspace and waters.”
Washington of course rejects such Chinese efforts and justifications, asserting that it is merely exercising its legal right to operate militarily outside of China’s territorial waters. But it is also clearly intent on sending a strong deterrence signal via such actions, and other military operations near Taiwan. And, according to private discussions, some U.S. military officers involved in the Taiwan Strait transits apparently relish the fact that such U.S. operations succeed in provoking the Chinese.
In this vicious cycle, neither government (or military) officially acknowledges that it is escalating and thereby worsening the situation, despite the obvious contrary reality. If the cycle continues, the Taiwan Strait will witness more such incidents, and thus likely serve as a crucible for future, more severe crises.
To avoid the next close encounter turning into a crisis, Washington should build on its recent diplomatic overtures by making its commitment to the One China policy clear and credible. The United States should reaffirm its openness to any long-term peaceful, uncoerced outcome of the Taiwan situation — something it used to say regularly. As a gesture of its seriousness, the United States should also reduce the frequency of its “freedom of navigation” operations (FONOPs) and Taiwan Strait transits.
None of this should occur in the absence of Beijing clearly conveying its continued commitment to a peaceful, uncoerced resolution of the Taiwan issue as a first priority, and ending its dangerous military pushback in the Taiwan Strait and elsewhere around the island. It also needs to confirm that it has no deadline for resolving the Taiwan issue.
If Washington and Beijing truly seek to avoid a disastrous conflict, constructive diplomacy designed to stabilize their bilateral relationship is paramount. They should begin discussions to reach these understandings on Taiwan, the most critical issue affecting peace and security in Asia and beyond.
Until both sides work constructively to unwind this tit-for-tat dynamic, close calls like this will keep happening — and a serious crisis over Taiwan may not be a matter of if, but when.
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ABOUT THE WRITER
Michael Swaine is a Senior East Asia Fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
