DETROIT — It might not look or feel like it when you’re sitting nine games under .500 and the oddsmakers give you a less than 3% chance of making the playoffs, but the Tigers weathered the storm that battered them throughout the month of June.
They lost Riley Greene and Eduardo Rodriguez at the top of the month — their best hitter and pitcher, respectively. Soon after they lost outfielders Matt Vierling and Akil Baddoo and another starting pitcher, Alex Faedo. They lost reliever Will Vest and lefty starter Matthew Boyd (for the season) later in the month.
They lost nine straight games and 11 of 12 to start the month. Rough waters, man, and the ship was listing precariously. But as we sit here today, the deck is dry and the ship is upright and powering toward the All-Star break.
Going 6-4 in a 10-game stretch against Central Division foes and then winning four of seven at Texas and Colorado has helped the Tigers regain some balance, if not momentum. And now the reinforcements are coming.
Lefty starters Tarik Skubal and Rodriguez are expected to return to the rotation Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, against the Oakland Athletics at Comerica Park. Baddoo should be back this week, too, with Greene not long behind him.
Faedo and right-handed reliever Beau Brieske are also just about ready for activation. Right-hander Spencer Turnbull, too, has begun throwing bullpens. He could start his rehab assignment, optimistically, before the All-Star break.
But, just as the ship has perhaps found calm seas, there’s likely to be some commotion on deck. Players coming back means others are going out. And, looming like a giant rock in the distance is the Aug. 1 trade deadline.
This baseball team might have a very different look to it by the end of this month. Here’s an attempt to sort it out, pre-deadline and post-deadline.
Pre-deadline
The return of Skubal and Rodriguez allows manager AJ Hinch and pitching coach Chris Fetter, at last, to return to a five-man rotation. They’ve gotten by astonishingly well with bullpen games (6-0 with a 2.73 ERA in games relievers cover at least seven innings). But they’ve also carried extra relievers through most of last month.
Two relievers are likely to be optioned out, probably one Tuesday and the other Wednesday. The candidates pool includes Garrett Hill, Zach Logue and Brendan White. The presumption here is that Hill and Logue get sent back to Toledo.
With Baddoo and Greene coming back, two outfield-only position players, the Tigers will have a tricky decision to make.
One possible scenario would be to re-insert Greene for Jake Marisnick. Marisnick, who has played well, exceptionally well in center field, has seven years of service time and can’t be optioned. The Tigers would have to designate him for assignment and then hope he clears and would be willing to return on a minor-league deal.
Doing that would clear the necessary spot on the 40-man roster to reinstate Skubal from the 60-day injured list. It is also quite likely that Marisnick opts for free agency and looks for another opportunity.
If Marisnick is DFA’d, the Tigers could move Zach McKinstry back into more of an infield role and use Greene, Baddoo, Vierling and Kerry Carpenter as the four primary outfielders.
That would mean — again, most likely — Tyler Nevin would be the second position player sent back to Triple-A to clear roster space.
Post-deadline
The Tigers have several tradeable assets but none more valuable than Rodriguez, even with the opt-out in his contract this winter that essentially makes him a rental for prospective buyers. Typically, teams offer less for rentals, but this trade market is atypical — there are more contending teams shopping for front-line starting pitchers than there are available front-line starters.
Rodriguez, assuming he pitches well on his return, will be at the top of the list. He should be able to make three and possibly four starts before the trade deadline, though the Tigers might not wait that long to move him.
There is virtually no chance Rodriguez doesn’t opt out of the three years and $49 million he has left on his Tigers’ deal. Which leaves Tigers’ president Scott Harris with two options: Trade Rodriguez and try to make the best deal he can or negotiate an extension.
Such an extension would certainly cost in excess of $100 million and five years — a risky investment for the Tigers to make in a pitcher in his age 31 to 36 seasons.
Newly-minted All-Star right-hander Michael Lorenzen’s name also has been popping up as a potential trade chip around baseball. He is on an expiring contract, so Harris will certainly entertain offers.
Another starting pitcher that could draw interest is Turnbull. He is on the injured list with a neck injury, but he’s made rapid progress in the last 10 days. Contending teams could view him two ways — as a depth starter in the second half of the season or as a power-arm boost to their bullpen.
That he is under team control for two more years would also be attractive to teams.
Turnbull and Faedo would be candidates to move into the rotation when Rodriguez is dealt. Joey Wentz, optioned to Toledo last week, also would be in that conversation.
Harris will listen to offers on several relievers expected to be of interest to contending teams, as well. Namely, Jose Cisnero, Jason Foley and Alex Lange. Foley and Lange are under team control for five more years, so, theoretically, they’d carry a higher price tag.
Trade or no trade, the Tigers could alter their bullpen mix for the second half. Vest, another potential trade candidate, isn’t expected be on the injured list much past the mandatory 15 days. Brieske and Trey Wingenter, though they likely will be initially optioned to Toledo when their rehab is up, soon could be part of the bullpen mix in Detroit.
The Tigers’ position players aren’t likely to draw a ton of interest. Though that doesn’t mean there won’t be some movement by the end of the month or into August.
At some point, especially if he keeps pounding the baseball like he’s been all season, third baseman Colt Keith is going to hit his way to Detroit. Left-handed hitting outfielder Parker Meadows and corner infielder-outfielder Justyn-Henry Malloy are also knocking on the door.
The club hasn’t given up on Nick Maton, either. He’s 5 for 13 with two doubles since he was optioned to Toledo. He’s likely to be back up at some point after the deadline.
That could mean the Tigers will eventually try to move or cut ties with veteran Jonathan Schoop, who is in the final year of his contract.
Lots of moving pieces. So, enjoy this last week of potentially calm water. Things are likely to get choppy again soon.
Scouting report
— Sears, Athletics: He’s pitched better than his record might indicate. With a 93-mph four-seam and three secondary pitches (sweeper, changeup, slider), he’s holding hitters to a .227 average and .287 on-base percentage. He gets hitters to chase at a 31.5% clip. He is susceptible to the home run ball, though. He’s allowed 19 in 87 innings, 17 of them hit by right-handed hitters.
— Skubal, Tigers: This is his first big-league start since Aug. 1, 2022, having spent the last 11 months recovering and rehabbing from flexor tendon surgery. Before he was shut down, he’d not allowed an earned run in 18 straight innings covering three starts. In five minor-league rehab starts he allowed two earned runs in 14.2 innings with 20 strikeouts and three walks.
