China's military has been identified as having the capability to isolate Taiwan, severely impact its economy, and potentially force the democratic island to yield to the ruling Communist Party of Beijing without resorting to direct military conflict, according to a recent report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
The report highlights concerns over Chinese leader Xi Jinping's increasingly aggressive stance towards Taiwan, raising fears of a potential future conflict. Amid China's refusal to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine, these concerns have been further exacerbated.
While traditional military invasion and blockade have been considered as options, the report introduces a third strategy - quarantine. This approach involves utilizing 'gray zone' tactics, such as maritime militia and coast guard operations, to impose a full or partial quarantine on Taiwan. By restricting access to ports and essential supplies like energy, China could exert significant pressure on the island nation.
The report emphasizes that China's Coast Guard, maritime militia, and law enforcement agencies could play a pivotal role in implementing a quarantine, potentially avoiding direct military confrontation. This strategy aims to coerce, punish, or annex Taiwan without engaging in overt warfare.
Chinese Defense Minister Adm. Dong Jun recently issued warnings against any moves towards Taiwan independence, emphasizing China's commitment to preventing such actions. The report underscores China's escalating use of gray zone tactics, as evidenced by recent clashes in the South China Sea.
By framing a quarantine as a law enforcement operation rather than a military blockade, China could complicate potential responses from the United States and other allies. The report notes that a quarantine would not necessarily require the closure of the Taiwan Strait, limiting intervention options under international law.
Despite the potential effectiveness of a quarantine, experts have raised doubts about its sustainability and economic implications for China. Maintaining such an operation could be costly and face challenges, particularly given Taiwan's significant role in global supply chains and economic interdependence with China.
As tensions persist across the Taiwan Strait, the possibility of a quarantine remains a complex and evolving aspect of the geopolitical landscape, with implications for regional stability and global trade.
