Carlsberg is betting on its soft and nonalcoholic drinks to navigate 2025 and beyond—but the move won't be without its challenges.
Carlsberg had an action-packed 2024. It acquired U.K.-based Britvic, creating a new entity that subsumes Carlsberg Marston’s Brewing Company business. The Danish company also got rid of its Russian operation after it was taken under state control in 2023.
Like its rivals AB InBev and Heineken, Carlsberg faces a reckoning amid growing preferences for nonalcoholic drinks. To adapt, the Danish company has introduced 0%-alcohol versions of its signature beverages, including one for its cider, Somersby. That segment has proved to be a key growth engine.
Alcohol-free brews are Carlsberg’s fastest-growing segment, up 6% last year. Other consumers also gravitated to expensive beers such as 1664 Blanc and Tuborg.
"In a world where we're seeing more moderation...having a larger soft-drinks exposure gives us the ability to cater to any consumer occasion out there," Carlsberg's CEO Jacob Aarup-Andersen told Fortune in an interview.
On Thursday, Carlsberg reported fourth-quarter sales of DKK 15.72 billion ($2.18 billion), slipping slightly below analyst expectations of DKK 15.79 billion.
Its 2024 operating profit amounted to DKK 11.41 billion ($1.59 billion), up 2.8% year over year but just under the company-compiled consensus estimate of DKK 11.47 billion. However, its revenue grew 1.9% to DKK 75 billion, ahead of its estimates.
With Britvic, which includes Robinsons Squash and Tango fizzy drinks, the Danish company will expand its suite of nonalcoholic beverages. Soft drinks will now become 30% of Carlsberg’s business, up from 16%. The deal also makes Carlsberg the largest bottler in Europe and worldwide by extending its PepsiCo partnership.
“Our strategy for alcohol-free brews is to have a broad portfolio of brands with alcohol-free line extensions of our local and international brands,” CEO Jacob Aarup-Andersen said in a media call Thursday morning.
Despite struggles in parts of Asia and Europe, Aarup-Andersen expects a “relatively stable consumer environment” in 2025. Carlsberg forecasts an organic operating profit growth of 1% to 5%, weighed down by the loss of San Miguel, one of its brands in the U.K., and relatively early days into its Britvic acquisition.
Aarup-Andersen noted that the gulf between the lower and higher end of the bracket depends on global consumer sentiment. Weather is yet another variable that can be hard to predict, yet sways demand for Carlsberg's brews.
"With all the trade war discussions et cetera, that will impact [the] psychology of a consumer that will make people just hold back a little," he said, adding that he feels optimistic about being able to deliver with the margin.
Jefferies analyst Edward Mundy wrote in a note that a combination of the Britvic-led expansion in the U.K. and a recovery in consumer demand in Asia could ultimately drive Carlsberg’s growth through next year. Bank of America, which names Carlsberg one of its "25 stocks of 2025," also highlighted that Britvic acquisition "helps diversify the business."
