GUWAHATI
The campaign for the third and final phase of elections across four Lok Sabha constituencies in Assam ended on May 5.
More than 80 lakh people will decide the fate of 47 candidates in the Barpeta, Dhubri, Guwahati, and Kokrajhar constituencies on May 7.
Most of these seats, where Bengal-origin Muslims play a decisive role, have not been the strongholds of either the BJP or arch-rivals Congress in recent times. But while the BJP has left three of the seats to its regional allies, the Congress is contesting all of them.
BJP repeats 2019 strategy
The BJP repeated its 2019 strategy by allotting the Barpeta and Dhubri constituencies to ally and NDA constituent Asom Gana Parishad (AGP). It also left the Scheduled Tribe-reserved Kokrajhar seat to its other ally, the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL).
The NDA has been upbeat in this phase owing to a couple of factors – the 2023 delimitation that turned Barpeta into a Hindu-majority seat and the disqualification of Kokrajhar’s incumbent “bloc-neutral” MP Naba Kumar Sarania owing to an ST certificate found invalid by the Gauhati High Court.
The AGP, allegedly unhappy with the BJP in 2019 for having been given “tough” seats, is expected to find it easier in Barpeta this time. Pointing to the delimitation exercise, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma said during the campaign that his party gave the AGP a winnable constituency.
The AGP is betting on former Minister Phani Bhushan Choudhury for a Parliament berth after 10 years. His chances are believed to have brightened because of the possible division of anti-NDA votes among Deep Bayan of Congress, Manoranjan Talukdar of CPI(M), and Abul Kalam Azad of Trinamool Congress.
These three parties are constituents of the Assam version of the Indian National Developmental, Inclusive Alliance (INDIA).
The AGP, however, is expected to find it harder in Dhubri, a constituency bordering Bangladesh often used as a metaphor for Assam’s “illegal migrants” problem. Dhubri has been a bastion of the Maulana Badruddin Ajmal-led All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), which is believed to have eaten into the Muslim vote bank of Congress since its formation in 2005.
The AGP’s Zabed Islam is up against Mr. Ajmal, who is seeking his fourth straight term, and former Minister Rakibul Hussain of Congress, which has gained ground because of a perceived erosion of support from the minorities for the AIUDF.
In Kokrajhar, Mr. Sarania’s ineligibility is believed to have made it that much easier for the UPPL’s Joyanta Mushahary whose main rivals are former extremist Kampa Borgoyary of the Bodoland People’s Front, a former ally of the BJP, Garjan Mashahary of Congress, and Binita Deka of the Gana Suraksha Party.
The contest in Guwahati is expected to be a straight one between Bijuli Kalita Medhi of BJP and Mira Borthakur Goswami of Congress. Having worked up her way in the BJP from the grassroots, Ms Medhi replaced incumbent Queen Oja, who like her predecessor Bijoya Chakravarty is an import from the AGP.
The BJP (Guwahati) and the Congress (Barpeta) won one of these four seats each in 2019.
