Heavily Democratic California may seem like an unlikely battleground, but a series of competitive U.S. House contests is once again poised to play a crucial role in determining control of the chamber. As Republicans strive to maintain their fragile majority in a deeply divided nation, the outcome in California could be the lever that determines who holds the gavel in 2025.
While California was once home to Republican Presidents Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, it has now become solidly Democratic. The state hasn't seen a Republican presidential candidate win a general election since the 1980s, and registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by a significant margin. Democrats currently hold every statewide office and have a dominant presence in the Legislature.
Despite California's Democratic tilt, there are pockets of conservative strength in regions like the Southern California suburbs and the Central Valley farm belt. The most competitive contests in the state are concentrated in Republican-held districts that were carried by President Joe Biden in 2020. Nationally, genuinely competitive territory is diminishing, making these California races all the more significant.
The stakes are high for both parties, as the outcome in California could determine who controls the House in 2025. With the House currently consisting of 219 Republicans, 213 Democrats, and three vacancies, every seat counts. Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom is actively raising money to help his party retake the House, emphasizing the potential disastrous consequences if former President Donald Trump wins the White House and Republicans take charge in the Senate. Newsom warns that Democrats must have the House to have any chance of blocking Trump's agenda.
Currently, Republicans hold only 11 out of the state's 52 House seats. About 10 districts in the state appear to be in play, with the possibility of some rematches from two years ago. While no incumbents are in immediate peril, the upcoming primary election on March 5 will determine the candidates that move forward to the general election.
In the campaign pitch for these competitive districts, fear of the opposition permeates the air. Democrats warn of Trump's possible return to Washington, threats to abortion rights, and unchecked gun violence. On the other hand, Republicans blame the dominant Democratic party for high taxes, inflation, vexing crime rates, and an out-of-control homeless crisis.
The role of the presidential contest in influencing House races remains uncertain. If President Joe Biden and Trump both appear assured of their respective nominations, turnout could be depressed. Biden's popularity has faded both in California and nationally, while Trump is widely disliked in California outside of his loyal base.
Under California election rules, both Democrats and Republicans appear on the same primary ballot, and the two candidates with the most votes advance to the general election, regardless of political party. This system allows for more competitive races and potential surprises.
Several key districts to watch include the 27th District in heavily Democratic Los Angeles County. Republican Congressman Mike Garcia, the only Republican in the region, has shown an ability to overcome the odds and confound rivals. His military service and Hispanic surname provide him with an advantage. Democrats, led by George Whitesides, a former NASA chief of staff, are vying for the chance to challenge Garcia.
Orange County's 47th District, once known as 'Reagan Country,' is another battleground. Former legislator Scott Baugh, who narrowly lost in 2022, is the leading Republican candidate to fill the seat vacated by Democratic Rep. Katie Porter. Two Democrats, state Sen. David Min and Joanna Weiss, are competing to secure a spot on the November ballot.
The Central Valley farm belt, with its significant Democratic registration edge, often poses a challenge for Republicans. Rep. David Valadao, a Republican, has endured despite facing steep registration deficits and will likely face a rematch with Rudy Salas, the Democrat he defeated in 2020. Both are facing challenges from within their own parties during the primary election.
Another rematch is shaping up in the 13th District, where Republican John Duarte narrowly defeated Democrat Adam Gray in 2022. This predominantly Democratic district with a large Latino population will witness a heated competition between the two candidates.
In the 41st District east of Los Angeles, the longest-serving Republican in the California congressional delegation, Rep. Ken Calvert, faces a potential rematch with Democrat Will Rollins. Calvert's conservative credentials and support from Trump could be liabilities in a district with many transplanted Los Angeles residents and a significant LGBTQ voting bloc.
In Southern California's 45th District, Republican Rep. Michelle Steel, a South Korean immigrant, seeks another term in a district specifically drawn to empower Asian Americans. Four Democrats are vying for the chance to challenge her, including Kim Nguyen-Penaloza and Derek Tran, who both come from immigrant backgrounds.
The 49th District, running through Orange and San Diego counties, features Democratic Rep. Mike Levin seeking re-election against four Republican challengers. Levin's focus on veterans affairs and environmental issues resonates in the district, which includes Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton.
Overall, the upcoming House contests in California will be closely watched as the dynamics could reshape the balance of power. These competitive races in what was once a Republican stronghold showcase the state's evolving political landscape. With the potential to flip the House, the outcome in California will have significant implications for the future of the nation.
