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Welcome to the busiest week in the business of the NFL. No, it is not a game week—we are still half a year away from any meaningful games. It is the start of the league year, when teams are architected, massaged and molded with re-signings and acquisitions that will shape their 2025 season.
Before getting to my perspective on so many business of football stories out there, a couple of caveats to remind my readers of:
• Contract values are not what they appear to be. The media gets this information, for the most part, from the agents. And as I know well (I was one): Agents are always framing the contract in the best possible light, not necessarily the most accurate. Speaking of which …
• When a contract extension is done, the annual average is usually reported as the average for the extension years. But that money is never just added to the existing years; it is folded into them. So the “true average” is never the reported average with extensions; it is always lower.
• Yes, the salary cap is real, but it is a soft cap (a yarmulke, as I often joke). It allows for “cash over cap” through signing bonus proration for teams that 1) have the financial resources to do so, and 2) are willing to load tens of millions of cap charges into the future. For example, if a player has a $50 million signing bonus and a $1 million salary in the first year of a five-year deal, his cash number is $51 million (signing bonus plus salary). His cap number is $11 million (prorated signing bonus plus salary). That is $50 million “cash over cap,” with just one player. Thus, the teams willing to pay a lot of cash are able to leverage this more than the others and yes, can sign more players in the short term.
On to my 12 insights as the league year begins …
1. Follow the money
Like me, you’re probably old enough to remember when Cleveland Browns star Myles Garrett desperately wanted out of Cleveland and requested a meeting with owner Jimmy Haslam to tell him so directly. That was then, this is now.
Garrett agreed to a four-year, $120 million contract extension with the Browns and voila, he doesn’t seem to want to leave the Browns; he even has a no-trade clause in the deal! As to the “real money,” it looks like $100 million over three years and then “we’ll see.” Not that there’s anything wrong with $33 million a year, but it’s not $40 million a year.
The Browns were once out of the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes when the Houston Texans made him available; they magically re-appeared, traded for him and signed him to an extension. Now they magically re-appeared again and Garrett is in the fold for the rest of his career. Follow the money.
2. Josh Allen rewarded
Josh Allen was one of those top quarterbacks with a contract for which I was critical a few years ago. Regardless of the money, it was too long, giving the Buffalo Bills the rights to Allen for eight years at a fixed rate. Now, the Bills have rectified that inequity.
The new six-year contract is reported to have a total value of $330 million, giving it the same average as players such as Joe Burrow and Jordan Love, only behind Dak Prescott’s $60 million average. More notably, it is reported to have $250 million guaranteed, topping Watson’s previous record of $230 million guaranteed. Although Watson’s contract was fully guaranteed, the NFL has to be delighted to replace Watson with Allen as the face of the largest guarantee in league history.
The Bills have $850 million of public funding for their new stadium and sold off 10% of their franchise to private equity financing—for at least $500 million—so cash on hand should not be a problem.
3. Saquon Barkley bargain
Saquon Barkley was rewarded with a huge raise from the Philadelphia Eagles, yet he still remains a bargain. Yes, not as much of a bargain as when he was making $13 million a year, but still a bargain at roughly $20 million a year. Barkley was the most impactful signing of the 2024 offseason and changed the power structure in the NFL. We hear so often the tired cliché of a team being “one player away.” Of course, that is never true, except for this player and this Eagles team.
Even with this upgraded contract, Barkley’s pay still illustrates a market inefficiency. There are almost 20 NFL receivers at the $20 million plateau—including two of Barkley’s teammates in DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown—and DK Metcalf just joined CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson in making over $30 million a year, with Ja’Marr Chase soon to come.
Simply due to the position he plays, Barkley is not even close to that status. Heck, he’s still the seventh-highest paid player on the Eagles’ … offense. The Eagles still have a huge bargain on their hands.
4. Bengals’ plan revealed
The Cincinnati Bengals went into the offseason with three of their four best players in contract limbo. Through their actions, which have yet to include a completed contract negotiation for any of them, they have forecast their plans.
The Bengals have gone on record that they will make Chase the highest-paid nonquarterback in football, probably at a $35 million a year number that exceeds the top two wide receiver contracts (Lamb and Jefferson). Yet while the Eagles have proved a team can pay all its stars, the Bengals are not that type of organization.
They have applied the franchise tag, for the second consecutive year, to Tee Higgins, using this management weapon to hold Higgins’s rights for a sixth year, even though his rookie contract was only four years. They will now “date” Higgins for another year while giving lip service to the intention of signing him to a long-term contract. I’m not buying it.
As for their defensive star Trey Hendrickson, it sounds like they’re not even trying. They’ve allowed him to seek a trade.
Thus, their plans are revealed: Marry Chase, date Higgins, divorce Hendrickson.
5. Trading dollars
Although it would seem obvious in the context of the business of football, not many people truly understand the importance of the financial side of trade compensation. That was clearly illustrated with a few recent trades.
Deebo Samuel and Jonah Jackson, two solid veteran players, were traded for fifth- and sixth-round picks. Joe Thuney, a top-level guard, was traded for a fourth-rounder. Are the draft picks that they were traded for expected to produce at anywhere near the level of these players? Of course not, but follow the money. The acquiring teams—the Washington Commanders for Samuel and the Chicago Bears for the two linemen—are taking on almost $20 million in financial obligations for these players in exchange for players that will barely make $3 million over the next four years.
Were the trading teams—the San Francisco 49ers (Samuel), Los Angeles Rams (Williams) and Kansas City Chiefs (Thuney)— willing to take on some of those financial obligations and pay off parts of those contracts, there would be much different (and higher) trade compensation. Money matters.
6. Geno Smith for Davante Adams
The Seattle Seahawks traded their starting quarterback, Geno Smith, for the third-round pick that the Las Vegas Raiders had previously acquired from the New York Jets for Davante Adams. Thus, as logic goes, the Raiders traded Davante Adams for Geno Smith.
Smith was one of those rare starting quarterbacks that, from a business sense, was not either 1) playing under a rookie contract, or 2) playing on a contract averaging $45 million-plus. His roughly $30 million average had become a source of frustration, and he obviously had expressed that to Seahawks management, who decided to move him out.
The Seahawks were not going to trade Smith without a plan at quarterback, however, and that plan appears to be Sam Darnold. The only question is whether Darnold will receive the $40 million average that Smith wanted in this swap of starting quarterbacks.
By the way, amid that Adams-for-Smith “trade,” the Jets come away with nothing, with Adams now signing with the Rams after being freed by the Jets. Speaking of which …
7. When all-in becomes all-out
There was so much hope and anticipation with the arrival of Aaron Rodgers to the Jets two years ago, even with him bringing some of his imports with him, such as Allen Lazard (at $12 million a year) and eventually Adams (for a third-round pick).
That was then; this is now. The Jets have fired their coach and their general manager. Rodgers was told his services were no longer needed, as were Adams and, assuming they can’t trade him for any compensation, Lazard.
The Jets gave the Green Bay Packers two high-second-rounders for Rodgers; they gave the Eagles a third-rounder for Haason Reddick, who hardly played there and, of course, the third-round pick for Adams. None will be on the Jets next season.
Sometimes, the best deals are the ones you don’t make.
8. Chapel Hill Hard Knocks
Bill Belichick, having been ignored in the two most recent NFL head coaching hiring cycles, continues to try to rankle the league in any way he can. He has his critical media appearances, he waded through Super Bowl parties and agreed to have his North Carolina program on the offseason version of Hard Knocks, something normally reserved for NFL teams.
The New York Giants embarrassed themselves on the series last offseason, including their bungled attempt to try to retain Barkley. I said it at the time, and I think every team thought the same thing: Why would the Giants agree to that? And now, no team would. Enter Belichick, but now exit Belichick.
HBO has changed course and there will be no UNC version of the show. Of course, they did not make this decision by themselves. NFL owners certainly weighed in on this decision, using their considerable influence to extract their own pound of flesh for the jabs thrown by Belichick. Score one for the machine here.
9. Winning the business of football
At this time last year, the Atlanta Falcons went all-in on Kirk Cousins, who leveraged free agency for the second time in his career. Cousins made $63.5 million last year and is due $27.5 million in 2025, even as he’s been replaced by last year’s No. 8 pick, Michael Penix Jr. The Falcons say they will have Cousins as their backup, and I actually believe them.
And Cousins won’t even be the highest-paid backup quarterback in the league. That “honor” will go to Watson, due another $46 million guaranteed this year (and in 2026) from the Browns. Watson is injured with an Achilles tear but even if he weren’t, the Browns would still be looking to replace him.
And, as they have done every year for the past three years, the Browns have converted most of Watson’s $46 million annual salary to signing bonus, creating reams of cap space for the future and ensuring Watson’s presence on the roster at least two more seasons. He continues to be the most uncuttable and untradeable player in NFL history.
Almost $75 million will be paid out to Cousins and Watson in 2025, and the two may collectively never play a snap.
10. Stafford Hunger Games
People, Matthew Stafford was not leaving the Rams. Sure, he was allowed to talk to other teams, but that was about finding a true market value for his services, not about finding a new place of employment. The Rams wanted him back and it would be hard to believe Stafford wanted to play for the teams he talked to, reported to be the Raiders and the Giants.
This begs the question of whether the Raiders and Giants were in on the jig. Did Tom Brady do a solid for Stafford, telling him something like, “Hey, if it helps you, tell the Rams we’d pay you $40 million a year for two years.” Did the Giants really think they could convince Stafford to play for a lesser team in a cold-weather climate?
I’m not sure exactly what went on there, but it felt like Stafford played the Rams.
11. Circle of life
Three years ago, Christian Kirk signed the largest free-agent contract for a wide receiver in NFL history. And his signing set off a market escalation at the position; the Raiders and Miami Dolphins traded for star receivers—Adams and Tyreek Hill—and rewarded them at the new market set by Kirk.
Now Kirk has been traded to the Texans for a seventh-round pick, what I term a “ham sandwich” trade in the NFL. That is quite a downward circle of life spiral in the business of football.
Speaking of which …
12. Buyer beware
Free agency now opens for the 2025 league year, but a lot of the best items have already been pulled off the shelf. As was always my priority when I worked for the Packers, teams work hard to retain their best players, even if it takes all the way to the cusp of free agency (deadlines spur action). That is why we’ve seen new contracts for what were pending free agents such as the Chief’s Nick Bolton, the Baltimore Ravens’ Ronnie Stanley and the Eagles’ Zack Baun.
Yes, there will still be a handful of golden ticket winners in free agency this week, but as seen every year, it is buyer beware. I always asked the question when looking at free agents: “What are we missing about him? Why did his team not work harder to keep him?”
As with Christian Kirk above, today’s marquee free agents may be sell-offs or releases in 2026 and ’27.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Business of Football: What to Expect in Free Agency, Start of New League Year.
