Bulgaria’s fifth general election in two years produced no clear winner, according to exit polls and a parallel count of official results, likely extending a deadlock that has paralyzed politics and put at risk European Union unity over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The parties of former prime ministers Kiril Petkov and Boyko Borissov finished neck-and-neck with 26.4% and 25.5%, respectively, in Sunday’s parliamentary vote, according to an Alfa Research exit poll published by BNT TV. At the same time, a parallel count of a sample from 100% of polling stations by the Trend Research Center showed Borissov’s Gerb party ahead of the bloc led by Petkov’s We Continue the Change 26.2% to 25%.
As many as four other parties also made it into parliament, according to the parallel count, which may not precisely reflect official results expected on Monday at the earliest.
The country of 6.5 million, the E.U.’s poorest, is looking for a way out of years of political deadlock after a string of inconclusive votes gave no political force enough support to muster a ruling majority. If the deadlock continues, another snap ballot may happen later this year.
During the two years of short-lived governments, most power has been in the hands of interim cabinets appointed by Rumen Radev, a NATO-trained former fighter pilot and general who has taken pro-Moscow stances, including saying Crimea is Russian in an election campaign and labeling opponents who support arming Ukraine as warmongers.
“The big difficulties in forming a government remain unchanged,” Boryana Dimitrova, managing partner at Alpha Research, told BNT television. The “photo-finish” result shown by the exit polls mean an official tally is needed to determine how government-forming talks will progress, she said.
The crisis has deepened the Balkan country’s isolation in the E.U., postponed its goal to enter the euro area next year, and delayed European Union recovery funding. The deadlock has also blocked the process for a 2023 budget bill, and central bank Governor Dimitar Radev (no relation to the president) remains in his post two years after his term expired because parties can’t agree on a replacement.
The war in Ukraine has only added to the chaos, as Bulgaria is part of NATO’s eastern flank less than 300 miles away from Crimea across the Black Sea.
Whoever wins will be first to receive the government-forming mandate by President Radev.
But the projected distribution of mandate in the 240-seat parliament shows either Petkov or Borissov would need the support of the other’s party or at least two other political forces. Because of ideological and personal differences, making such a match could prove impossible.
Petkov, a Harvard-educated former business executive, has vowed to create a minority cabinet. Borissov, meanwhile, has said he’ll hold talks with other parties to seek broader support, with one option a potential grand coalition between Gerb and We Continue the Change that, if pursued, would probably be led by neither of the parties’ leaders.
If both Petkov and Borissov fail to win enough support to rule, Radev will have a third chance to pick a party to try to form a government before he will be obliged to schedule a new election.
“The political landscape remains deeply fragmented and challenges are becoming deeper,” said Capucine May, a political risk analyst at political consultancy Verisk Maplecroft.
