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Belfast Live
Belfast Live
National
Brendan Hughes

Brexit: Support for Northern Ireland Protocol 'edging upwards', opinion poll finds

An increasing number of voters support the Northern Ireland Protocol, according to a new opinion poll.

Some 55% of people surveyed view the protocol as appropriate for managing the impact of Brexit on Northern Ireland - an increase from 47% a year ago - while 38% disagree.

The post-Brexit deal governing Irish Sea trade is considered by 53% as on balance a "good thing" for Northern Ireland, compared to 43% in June 2021.

Read more: Tories back PM’s plan to rip up Northern Ireland Brexit deal despite criticism

Of those surveyed 37% are of the opposite view, according to the poll by LucidTalk on behalf of Queen's University Belfast.

Most respondents (57%) do not think the UK government is justified in taking unilateral action to suspend elements of the protocol and 55% think the EU would be justified in retaliating against such measures.

And a clear majority (74%) would prefer to see the UK and the EU reaching an agreement on the protocol's implementation rather than the UK take unilateral action.

It comes as the British government presses ahead with divisive Westminster legislation to override parts of the protocol.

Trust in political parties and institutions on managing Northern Ireland's interests over the protocol was mixed and generally low.

The UK government was by far the most distrusted (84% distrust, 55% strongly so) and least trusted (trusted just by 5% of respondents).

Voters in Northern Ireland are more inclined to trust (47%) than distrust (43%) the European Commission/EU.

Most respondents (55%) see the current impact of the protocol on Northern Ireland's economy as positive, while 65% think it offers unique economic opportunities that could benefit the region.

The greatest concerns were for the political implications, with 59% seeing the protocol as having a negative impact on political stability and on British-Irish relations.

And 46% believe the protocol has a negative impact on Northern Ireland's place in the United Kingdom including the UK internal market.

Just over a third (36%) have no concerns about the full operational scope and impact of the protocol.

But 55% worry about the implications if grace periods ended and the protocol was implemented in full.

Customs declarations being required for parcels is the issue of most concern among the 55%, followed by potential restrictions on plants, seeds and chilled meats being brought into Northern Ireland from Great Britain.

Northern Ireland aligning with European Union standards on goods is the issue of least concern to these respondents, followed the application of EU rules on state aid.

Some 35% agreed that Great Britain-produced food products they used to buy are no longer available where they usually shopped, but most people disagreed (41%) with this suggestion.

The survey, conducted from June 3-6 with a weighted sample of 1,497 respondents, is the fifth conducted for researchers at Queen's as part of a three-year project funded by the Economic and Social Research Council.

Respondents remain split on how their MLAs should vote in 2024 when they can have their say on whether to continue with the protocol.

Some 52% favour MLAs continuing with the protocol while 40% want them to vote against - the largest margin between the two options of the polls conducted to date.

Professor David Phinnemore, from the School of History, Anthropology, Philosophy and Politics at Queen's, said support for the protocol is "edging upwards".

He said: "Many voters in Northern Ireland clearly continue to have genuine concerns about what the full operation of the protocol would mean.

"Yet, this latest poll also shows support for the Protocol edging upwards and almost two-thirds of respondents seeing economic opportunities in it. Also it’s clear that voters would much prefer outstanding issues between the UK and the EU to be resolved through agreement and not unilateral action by the UK government."

Professor Katy Hayward, of the School of Social Sciences, Education and Social Work at Queen's, said: "People in NI have clear views on the protocol and in some cases those views are strongly divided.

"But one of the things they agree most on (77%) is that the UK and EU should jointly present factual information on the protocol.

"The lack of agreement from the UK and EU as to the actual meaning and problems of the Protocol is clearly exacerbating the divisive effects of the topic on the ground in Northern Ireland."

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