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Brendan Hughes

Brendan Hughes: Northern Ireland will not make or break chances of Tory leadership contenders

A miniscule section of Northern Ireland's population, described just months ago as on the verge of extinction, will have a say on who will be the UK's next Prime Minister.

That endangered species is of course the lesser spotted Ulster Tory.

Estimates vary on how many members of the Conservative Party live in Northern Ireland, with figures bandied about ranging from 300 to 600.

Read more: Brendan Hughes: Boris Johnson as PM overwhelmingly negative for Northern Ireland

But at the upper end of that scale, it means just 0.03% of the region's population will have a vote on who takes up residence at Number 10 Downing Street.

It is a level of influence that hugely outweighs the paltry 254 first-preference votes the NI Conservatives received in May's Stormont Assembly election after fielding just one candidate.

Speaking to some NI Conservatives, the initial reaction has been lukewarm to the final two leadership contenders after candidates were whittled down by Tory MPs.

Some would have preferred Kemi Badenoch or Penny Mordaunt on the final ticket to signify a clean break from Boris Johnson, whose premiership unravelled over his handling of several Westminster controversies.

Instead, members have a choice between Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss: Two people inextricably linked to the Johnson era, who held senior positions in his cabinet and for years loyally supported him.

There is a belief that if Mr Johnson had been on the ballot he would win again, as many faithful members are still reeling from his ousting.

But others are buoyed by the chance to remold the party. Former NI Conservatives chairman Alan Dunlop, who quit the party last year, rejoined after Mr Johnson announced his resignation.

Back in April the businessman said the Tories in Northern Ireland were "about to become an extinct species", but he has expressed delight at returning to the fold.

The conundrum faced by Tories and other unionists in Northern Ireland from this two-way leadership contest was summed up in a tweet by former DUP special adviser Tim Cairns.

"Quite the dilemma for an NI unionist. Truss undoubtedly the best candidate for NI, Sunak the best candidate for the UK," he said.

As Foreign Secretary, Ms Truss introduced the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill aimed at overriding parts of the post-Brexit Irish Sea trade deal opposed by many unionists.

It has been a pillar of her leadership campaign as she has sought to consolidate support from hardline Tory Brexiteers.

For the DUP which has pinned restoring Stormont power-sharing to the passage of the legislation, Ms Truss is their best hope for getting the bill over the line.

The problem is Ms Truss is seen as a poor communicator who may struggle to connect Conservatives with voters ahead of the next general election.

For unionists opposed to Labour seizing power, it is hard to imagine Ms Truss rising to the challenge of Sir Keir Starmer at the despatch box during Prime Minister's Questions every week.

As one NI Conservative member described it, at times she has all the charisma of a Thunderbirds puppet.

Mr Sunak seems on the other hand much more assured with thinking on his feet, having represented the Conservatives in high-pressure TV debates long before this leadership contest.

However, he is seen as more reluctant about escalating tensions with the EU over the Protocol during a cost-of-living crisis. For parties supportive of the Protocol, it may mean Mr Sunak is considered the "least worst option".

The leadership contest has many weeks left to run as the contenders take part in a series of hustings. The vote result is due to be announced in early September.

While NI Conservatives will have their say, issues in Northern Ireland will not make or break the chances of either candidate.

Competing taxation and spending plans have instead dominated the debate so far as both contenders seek to persuade Tory members that their strategy is best to boost the economy.

And with Labour ahead in opinion polls, many will be focused on choosing who they think is best placed to take on their rivals at the next general election.

So far Northern Ireland has not featured much in this leadership contest. With as few as 300 out of around 160,000 Conservative members living here, it is likely to stay that way.

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