The Toronto Blue Jays took a major bite out of the 2026 MLB free agent class when they locked up perhaps the best player due to enter the market. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s 14-year, $500 million contract took him off the board for what was already looking like a weak crop of free agents.
At 26, Guerrero looked to be the best young hitter available and had the best chance of creating a massive bidding war for his services. Now teams will have to focus their attention elsewhere to improve this winter.
The biggest beneficiary of Guerrero coming off the board is Kyle Tucker. The Chicago Cubs outfielder is now the undisputed top bat available in the offseason. He has already begun his contract year in impressive fashion. Through Thursday's games, Tucker ranks in the top two in the NL in hits (19), home runs (5), RBIs (16), runs (16), total bases (40) and OPS+ (221), and has 14 walks against seven strikeouts.
The Houston Astros rarely extend their high-priced stars and decided to move Tucker this offseason. They clearly believed there wasn't a deal to be had, and given the massive contracts Juan Soto and Guerrero received, Tucker has every reason to hit free agency and create a bidding war. Guerrero set a new market for non-Soto/Shohei Ohtani players with his $500 million deal, and it wouldn't be shocking if Tucker approaches that number despite being two years older than the Blue Jays star.
Over the past three seasons, the 28-year-old has averaged 27 home runs and 89 RBIs while hitting .275 with an .878 OPS and 145 OPS+. In that time, he generated 15.7 WAR. Those numbers would be higher, but he was limited to 78 games in 2024 due to a shin injury yet had an incredible 183 OPS+ in 339 at bats.
After Tucker, the bats are interesting—though there isn't a standout star. Kyle Schwarber and Marcell Ozuna are designated hitters only at this point, but they can still put up big numbers. Luis Arráez has won three consecutive batting titles but has no pop, lessening his prospects for a big contract. Eugenio Suárez is coming off a big bounce-back campaign in 2024 and has hit 30 homers in three of the last four years. Cedric Mullins is an interesting case as the 30-year-old has become one of the few pure center fielders who can hold his own at the plate.
It's a mixed bag, with Schwarber appearing to be the most coveted, given the fact that he hasn't had an OPS below .817 in a non-COVID season since 2017.
In the pitching department, there is a huge drop-off from last year's free agent class to this one. A loaded group hit free agency after 2024, with Blake Snell, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Roki Sasaki available. This time around, there is talent, but the available arms have fairly considerable flaws.
San Diego Padres righty Dylan Cease likely leads the group, as the 29-year-old can be downright dominant. After a down 2023 campaign, he bounced back in 2024, going 14–11 with a 3.47 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 224 strikeouts in 189.1 innings. He showed just how good he can be in a three-game stretch in July last season in which he went 22 innings, allowed two hits, no runs and struck out 30 while walking seven. That included a no-hitter against the Washington Nationals. If Cease can find the zone consistently, he's an ace—he’s finished in top four in Cy Young voting twice in the last three years. When he doesn't, he can fall apart, as he did in his third start of 2025 when he allowed a career-worst nine runs to the Athletics.
Astros ace Framber Valdez and Arizona Diamondbacks righty Zac Gallen are likely just behind Cease on the class’s depth chart. Gallen posted a 3.65 ERA over 148 innings in 2024, following up an outstanding 2023 campaign where he finished third in NL Cy Young voting. Valdez posted a 2.91 ERA over 176 1/3 innings last year despite dealing with elbow inflammation early in the season.
Padres righty Michael King has a chance to become an ace, taking the same path from the bullpen to the rotation that Seth Lugo did, and he could potentially be the top pitcher available, depending on how his 2025 campaign goes. Ranger Suarez, Zach Eflin and Brandon Woodruff will also be in the mix based on their results this year.
Unlike the crop of starters, the bullpen class headed for free agency this year is stacked. Devin Williams is the obvious choice as the top free agent. The Milwaukee Brewers traded their closer to the New York Yankees in anticipation of him hitting the open market. The two-time NL Reliver of the Year missed most of 2024 due to two stress fractures in his back, but his track record is impeccable.
In 2023, his last full season, Williams went 8–3 with a 1.53 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 87 strikeouts in 58 2/3 innings. He posted an astronomical 282 ERA+ with 36 saves in 40 opportunities. How the 30-year-old handles this season under the microscope in New York will determine the kind of paycheck he gets.
Joining Williams are fellow closers Raisel Iglesias, Ryan Helsley and Ryan Pressly, all of whom have strong track records. Helsley was the 2024 NL Reliever of the Year, while Iglesias and Pressly have closed successfully for multiple seasons. Iglesias (35) and Pressly (36) are on the older end of the spectrum for high-leverage relievers, but solid 2025 seasons should net them high-dollar deals.
Next offseason’s free-agent class took a major hit when Guerrero came off the board, and it won't come close to matching this past winter’s class. It’s a top-heavy group, but as always, there will still be plenty of valuable players for teams to target.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Breaking Down 2026 MLB Free Agent Class With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Off the Board.
