President Joe Biden’s chief economic adviser said that inflation numbers should improve through the second half of the year and that there’s a reasonable chance the pace could get down around 2% by the time of the November 2024 election.
“Through the second half of the year, there’s good reason to expect those numbers to continue to improve — the policies are already in place,” National Economic Council Director Lael Brainard told reporters at an event hosted by Christian Science Monitor in Washington Thursday. “There’s every reason” to think it’s possible that a pace in a range around 2% or slightly above 2% could be hit before the election, she said.
Housing costs, which have proved sticky so far, will also come down considerably, she said.
Brainard also echoed Biden in touting the administration’s legislative achievements that stepped up investment in infrastructure, semiconductors and the green-energy transition. She spoke a day after the president delivered what the White House called a “cornerstone” address on his economic policy, “Bidenomics,” with his office seeking to improve perceptions about his job performance before the 2024 election campaign gets into full swing.
Asked about the risk of the U.S. falling into a recession, Brainard noted that predictions for some time now have seen that happening in a three-month or six-month time frame before such projections fade.
“It’s hard not to conclude that the economy is resilient and chugging along and doing pretty well,” said Brainard, 61, who left her position as vice chair of the Federal Reserve earlier this year to head the NEC. “We want to see stable growth, we want to see sustainable growth, but the resilience has really been notable.”
At the same time, Brainard said she’s been spending a lot of time looking at the commercial real estate market, where there are widespread expectations of losses in coming months and years after the surge in interest rates and move toward hybrid work.
A key focus is offices in the downtown areas of larger cities, where valuations are adjusting to different patterns of work associated with today’s job market, she said. While at the moment it seems like exposure to losses is being managed, Brainard said she wouldn’t be sanguine about the situation.
With regard to the fraught battle over addressing the federal debt limit, which saw the U.S. come within days of a potential payments default several weeks ago, Brainard said that Biden wants solutions — be they constitutional or legislative — regarding the issue.
The law requiring Congress to raise or suspend the ceiling was used for the purpose of “hostage taking,” she said in reference to Republicans insisting on spending cuts as a condition for setting the debt limit aside.
Fixing the matter wasn’t possible this time around, Brainard said without specifying what sort of mechanism the administration favors.
The NEC chief also said that it’s important to take a “very targeted approach” with regard to the trade relationship with China. The administration has been clear that it favors “derisking, and not decoupling” with Beijing, she said.
“We still have strong two-way trade in general in that bilateral relationship, but it is important to make sure that we are carefully protecting key technologies that are vital for national-security purposes,” Brainard said. “And of course, we work with all companies to try to strike that right balance.”
She added that “China has really played a complicated role in the global trading system for a long time now,” and that there have been a number of practices that saw a loss of U.S. technology and intellectual property.
“It is important to make sure that we are carefully protecting key technologies that are vital for national-security purposes,” Brainard said.
There’s an “ongoing set of very active discussions” with regard to screening outbound investments, Brainard said. The administration is expected soon to unveil measures that would curb U.S. companies from investing in key technologies in China.
While the U.S. has taken action on China’s non-market practices in order to protect the American economy, more broadly, the U.S. has a relatively robust relationship with the country, Brainard said.
The NEC chief was also asked about the pending Supreme Court case on the Biden administration’s move to forgive student debt. She said that she expects a good outcome and that it’s important that people have relief. She declined to comment on contingency plans if the high court strikes down the loan forgiveness.
(With assistance from Jordan Fabian and Reade Pickert.)
