Reading the headlines, you’d be forgiven for thinking the Victorian government has capitulated again – this time on its bold housing targets.
But for the well-heeled residents of Brighton and Boorondara – some of whom who had sought to quash any changes amid cries of “shame, premier, shame” – it’s full steam ahead, at least in their suburbs.
The premier, Jacinta Allan, and her planning minister, Sonya Kilkenny, have spent the past two days spruiking updates to plans made last year to dramatically increase density in Melbourne’s inner suburbs. More announcements are expected this week – including the locations of further activity centres for fast-tracked apartment development.
If you can recall, the announcement of the first 25 centres sparked a highly publicised rally, organised by Brighton MP James Newbury, who fired up the crowd by warning of potential “20-storey apartment” towers in their streets.
The government’s strategy set up a political battle, not just between young voters locked out of the housing market and older, wealthier exisiting residents, but between Labor and Liberal MPs whose electorates have been flagged for much of the redevelopment.
On Monday, the government chose another Liberal seat, Hawthorn, to release its final housing targets for every metropolitan local government area (LGA), draft figures of which were first announced in June.
Since then, the government has reduced the 2051 target for all metropolitan councils from about 2.01m extra homes to 1.78m. Each LGA has seen a reduction in its numbers in what was described by housing advocacy group Yimby Melbourne as “capitulation” by the government.
“We need more homes, not fewer, but the government just hasn’t got the guts to get them built,” said Yimby’s lead organiser, Jonathan O’Brien.
But at closer inspection, the government’s intention remains: to shift the focus of 30 years of housing growth from the outer fringes of Melbourne to its inner suburbs, with their access to transport options.
The LGAs that saw the largest drop in their targets were Hobsons Bay, Hume, Manningham, Mornington Peninsula and Nillumbik. In Nillumbik, in the outer north, the target went from a proposed 12,000 homes by 2051 to 6,500 – a drop of about 45%.
But in the inner city, the government’s targets have only dropped marginally. The government has said the targets were intentionally ambitious, with the knowledge they would be scaled back during the consultation process.
Port Phillip’s target is 55,000 (down from 56,000 in the June draft), Stonnington’s is 50,000 (down from 51,000), Glen Eira’s is 63,500 (down from 65,000) and Yarra’s is 44,000 (down from 48,00).
And in Bayside, which includes suburbs like Brighton, and Boroondara – the LGAs the premier has become fond of referencing – the targets have also barely budged.
Bayside’s target has gone from 31,000 new homes in June to 30,000 on Monday, while Boroondara’s went from 67,000 to 65,500.
For the latter, achieving the target would mean an increase in housing stock by 88% by the middle of the century in an area that now has a total of 74,600 homes.
Allan said the government needed to intervene to set council targets to ensure “fairer, more even growth” around the state. She said over the past 30 years, outer areas such as Melton grew 433% while inner councils such as Boroondara and Bayside grew by 28%.
“It means that for young people, particularly who are wanting to move into these areas, they’re locked out from the opportunity to find a home, perhaps close to where they grew up,” Allan said.
Kilkenny said councils will have to demonstrate a plan to reach their targets or face losing control over local planning decisions.
Both denied they had scaled back their ambitions and said their statewide target of 2.24m new homes by 2051 remained.
“This is a demonstration of how my government says it’s going to do something, we go out and listen, consult [and] take on board the feedback,” Allan said.
On Sunday, when the duo announced a reduction in height limits around its first 10 activity centres, they characterised the changes the same way.
Under the updated plan, “core areas” identified for future apartment towers of between 10 and 20 storeys are largely unchanged – but the surrounding “walkable catchments” have changed after concerns from residents.
Now, the maximum heights have been reduced to four to six storeys in the inner catchment and three to four storeys in the outer catchment.
Kilkenny said it proved there had been “fearmongering from the Liberal party” about the plan, singling out Newbury and Michael O’Brien – the member for Malvern, where seven activity centres are earmarked for development.
“As we release these updated plans, I hope it becomes very clear to the member for Brighton or the member for Malvern that we do engage with community, that we address each centre as a unique centre, that we undertake analysis street by street, metre by metre, and we take on board local community feedback,” she said.
The premier’s comments were more sharp.
“You don’t get more affordable homes built by running up and down the main street of Brighton with a megaphone blocking more homes being built.”
