The Bills have a looming problem on their hands.
Over the past few years, general manager Brandon Beane has amassed one of the league’s best rosters. The result has been three consecutive AFC East titles, but also postseason failure each time.
Now, with Buffalo in the position of all-in, the Bills are paying for some of their quieter sins.
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Looking at Buffalo’s cap sheet compared to other AFC contenders, you quickly understand the problem. Of the Bills’ top-10 contracts by annual average value, a whopping six are being paid to players who will be at least 29 years old at the start of the season:
- Josh Allen (27): $43 million
- Stefon Diggs (29): $24 million
- Von Miller (34): $20 million
- Tre’Davious White (28): $17.2 million
- Ed Oliver (25): $17 million
- Dion Dawkins (29): $14.57 million
- Matt Milano (29): $14.1 million
- Dawson Knox (26): $13 million
- Mitch Morse (31): $9.7 million
- Micah Hyde (32): $9.6 million
Additionally, the deals add up to $182.2 million. Next season, those 10 players count against the salary cap for $172.6 million. If the cap rises to $250 million, the Bills will be paying 69 percent of their cap to 10 players, including Hyde, who will be in the first of three void years.
To compare this, let’s look at the Chiefs and Bengals.
For Kansas City, the cap sheet is quite clean, as GM Brett Veach continues to move on from veterans before paying them into their 30s, including All-Pro receiver Tyreek Hill, three-time Pro Bowl defensive end Frank Clark, All-Pro safety Tyrann Mathieu and four-time Pro Bowl tackle Orlando Brown Jr.
Kansas City has backfilled with draft picks and younger free agents, opting to pay second contracts instead of third deals. The result leaves the Chiefs with these as their top 10 deals in AAV:
- Patrick Mahomes (27): $45 million
- Chris Jones (28): $20 million
- Jawaan Taylor (25): $20 million
- Joe Thuney (30): $16 million
- Travis Kelce (33): $14.3 million
- Justin Reid (26): $10.5 million
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling (28): $10 million
- Charles Omenihu (26): $8 million
- Harrison Butker (28): $4 million
- Trent McDuffie (22): $3.5 million
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And while Buffalo’s cap is top-heavy with its top-10 contracts equaling $182.2 million in annual value, Kansas City comes in at $151.3 million.
Furthermore, the Chiefs are on the hook for $157.1 million pending an expected extension for Jones. However, it’s almost certain Valdes-Scantling and Reid won’t see their cap numbers next year, which would free up $22.7 million with only $5.3 million in dead money. For Buffalo, the only potential cut is Morse, which would net $8.5 million returned.
In Cincinnati, the Bengals will soon be paying Joe Burrow and receiver Ja’Marr Chase, potentially along with receiver Tee Higgins and linebacker Logan Wilson. Still, all of those would be second contracts, and those players wouldn’t be approaching 30 for some time.
Here’s how the Bengals stand heading into 2023:
- Orlando Brown Jr. (27): $16 million
- Trey Hendrickson (28): $15 million
- D.J. Reader (29): $13.2 million
- Joe Mixon (27): $12 million
- Tyler Boyd (29): $10.75 million
- Sam Hubbard (28): $10 million
- B.J. Hill (28): $10 million
- Joe Burrow (26): $9 million
- Alex Cappa (28): $8.75 million
- Ja’Marr Chase (23): $7.7 million
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Of course, Cincinnati is a more complicated picture. The Bengals see the above names account for an average of $112.4 million, while accounting for just $116.6 million. Yet general manager Duke Tobin could move on from Mixon and Hill, while Boyd and Reader are slated for free agency.
Cincinnati will see larger figures soon for its stars, but it’ll be paying at the right time in their careers.
All told, if the cap is $250 million in 2024, the Bengals are slated to be $66 million under the threshold, while the Chiefs check in at $57.7 million.
The Bills? They would be $19.6 million over the cap, with only the Broncos, Dolphins, Jets, Chargers, Browns and Saints further underwater. This is partially due to seeing huge spikes in the cap hits of Allen and Miller. This year, the two combine for a cap number of $26.5 million. Next year, it skyrockets to $70.1 million.
While Buffalo can move on from some of its larger deals in coming years, that only leads to more questions.
For starters, who is replacing the outgoing stars? The depth chart has been left with significant issues as recent drafts have netted few contributors.
Not counting this spring, the past four Buffalo rookie classes have been highlighted by kicker Tyler Bass, edge rusher Greg Rousseau, corner Dane Jackson, receiver Gabe Davis, Oliver and Knox. Only Knox has reached a Pro Bowl, and the others haven’t come particularly close.
This leaves Beane in a very difficult position. If he doesn’t spend lavishly to keep his best talent from hitting free agency, he understands the next player up isn’t one suited for significant snaps. However, that means a cap crunch, which begins in 2024.
Looking forward, Rousseau and Davis are the only players on Buffalo’s roster who are young and could replace others among the team’s highest paid. Beyond that, it’s hard to identify the talent which will command obvious extensions and big roles.
The answers for the Bills and their front office are simple: They must draft much better, stop paying third contracts and cease with void years, as they’ve given out to Hyde, Dawkins and Milano.
But executing said plan isn’t easy. And if Buffalo doesn’t reverse course, it runs a serious risk of becoming the worst combination sports has to offer: old and expensive.
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