NEW YORK — Between the two of them, Hal Steinbrenner and Steve Cohen spent over a billion dollars in home improvements this winter. But after all that the prospects for a Subway World Series remain murky for both.
We start with the Yankees where Prince Hal laid out a total of $573.5 million, most of it in retaining Aaron Judge ($360M) and Anthony Rizzo ($40M). That would be considered maintenance. On the other hand, the $162 million for Carlos Rodon represents a significant upgrade to the starting pitching which the Yankee high command hopes will be sufficient to close the gap between them and the Astros. Certainly if Gerrit Cole, Rodon, Luis Severino and Nestor Cortes — all of whom have pitched as No. 1s on various occasions — stay healthy, the Yankee rotation is as formidable as any in baseball.
It should be remembered the Yankees’ 99-win first-place finish in the AL East was largely attributable to a phenomenal first-half performance by their entire five-man rotation which yielded more than three runs in a start only four times. By mid-June, they were on pace for a regular-season MLB record 117 wins and were 64-28 at the All-Star break. Then came August and the inevitable injuries: Severino was sidelined six weeks with a lat issue; Giancarlo Stanton missed a month with an Achilles injury; DJ LeMahieu was hampered the rest of the season with a toe issue; Rizzo dealt with a back problem the whole second half; Matt Carpenter broke his foot; and the previously invincible back end of their bullpen, Michael King and Clay Holmes, were both sidelined, Holmes with a back injury and King with a season-ending fractured elbow.
The LeMahieu, Carpenter, Rizzo and Stanton injuries were especially costly because they essentially rendered the Yankees a Judge home run or bust offense, with them getting very little production out of Aaron Hicks in left field (.216, 109 strikeouts in 453 plate appearances), Josh Donaldson at third base (.222 148K in 546 PA), Isiah Kiner-Falefa at shortstop and in the second half Jose Trevino at catcher. In retrospect, Brian Cashman’s trade with the Twins for Kiner-Falefa and Donaldson’s onerous contract ($29M still owed for this year) has really put the Yankees in a hole, as has his $70 million contract to Hicks through 2025.
Much as he would’ve liked to upgrade at third base (with LeMahieu) and in left field, Cashman could find no takers for Donaldson and Hicks, (after Andrew Benintendi spurned him), and as a result the Yankee offense will have a familiar look to it this year — a lot of homers and a lot of strikeouts. It is why Cashman really needs an energy influx from his farm system this year, with Oswald Peraza (or possibly Anthony Volpe) supplanting Kiner-Falefa at short, and if not Oswaldo Cabrera then perhaps Estevan Florial finally stepping up this spring and earning a spot in the outfield.
So much as Rodon figures to provide a major upgrade to the rotation, the Yankees still have a lot of issues to resolve with their offense. At the same time, winning the AL East doesn’t figure to be nearly as easy as it was last year. In particular, the Blue Jays moved aggressively this offseason to close that seven-game deficit to the Yankees in ‘22, signing Chris Bassitt for their rotation, trading for Erik Swanson for back-end bullpen depth and greatly improving their outfield defense by adding Daulton Varsho from Arizona and Kevin Kiermaier as a free agent.
As for the Mets, Steve Cohen spent nearly $500 million this winter, a goodly amount of it just to retain Edwin Diaz ($102M) and Brandon Nimmo ($162M), along with another $86 million on Justin Verlander to replace Jacob deGrom. The big question is whether the $75 million he spent on Japanese import Kodai Senga will prove to be worth it. Because if Senga is anything less than a dependable No. 3 starter — as well as an upgrade over Bassitt — the Mets are going to be in trouble. Already, their road to the World Series depends on their 40- and 39-year-old aces, Verlander and Max Scherzer, remaining sound all the way through October. A big ask.
Meanwhile, the Phillies are greatly improved, with Trea Turner filling a major hole at shortstop and lefties Gregory Soto and Matt Strahm acquired to strengthen the bullpen — while the Braves are still the Braves, with the deepest rotation in the division and no weak spots in the lineup. Buck Showalter winning manager of the year with 101 wins last season was a tall task. Winning the division this year and going deep into October will be a much taller task.
