President Joe Biden's approval rating remains deep underwater as Americans head to the polls Tuesday for a midterm election that may shift the balance of power in Congress, the November IBD/TIPP Poll finds.
Biden's job approval rating ticked up two-tenths of a point to 45.5 in the new IBD/TIPP Poll. The IBD/TIPP presidential job approval figure indicates that 45.5% of adults who stated an opinion approve of Biden's job performance and 54.5% disapprove, in a measure that excludes those who were unsure or declined to say.
Including the full survey group, a steady 41% of American adults approve of how Biden is handling the presidency, and 49% disapprove. That net -8 approval rating was unchanged vs. October after sinking from September's -2 rating, with 46% approval and 48% disapproval. August's -14 net job approval, with 39% approval and 53% disapproval, was Biden's lowest approval rating since taking office.
Biden had staged a late-summer rally, fueled by a flurry of economic legislation, student loan forgiveness, declining gas prices and an uproar over the Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v. Wade. But his approval rating began to relapse by early October as economic concerns took center stage.
The IBD/TIPP Poll finds that 52% of adults see the economy as among the top 3 issues facing the country, followed by immigration (25%) and crime (24%). Other top issues include gun violence (23%), climate change (21%), abortion (21%), health care (18%) and trust in politicians (17%).
Biden Approval Rating Details
The tiny rise in Biden's approval rating came as his standing among independents saw slight improvement from dire levels. Net disapproval of Biden narrowed to 27 points among independents from 29 points in October. Now, 55% of independents pan Biden's job performance and 28% approve. That compares with 56%-27% in October, 57%-36% in September and 62%-26% in August.
October Jobs Report: Hiring Strong But Jobless Rate Rises
Biden's bounce among members of his own party began to deflate a bit in November. Democrats now approve of his job performance by a 75%-17% margin, down from 77%-16% in October, but better than August's 70%-19% split.
Republicans disapprove 84%-11% vs. 86%-11% in October.
Younger adults, who provided the bulk of Biden's bounce in September, continue to give Biden a positive rating, there's been some slippage. Adults 18-44 now approve of Biden's handling of the presidency by a 47%-41% margin vs. 46%-39% in October and 51%-40% in September. Biden's net approval of six points among younger Americans, though down from +11 points in September, is still a big turnaround from his -11-point net rating in August. At that time, just 40% of 18- to 44-year-olds approved and 51% disapproved of his job performance.
Yet Biden continues to have big problems with older Americans. Now adults 45 and over disapprove of Biden's job performance by a 56%-36% margin vs. 58%-36% in October and 54%-42% in September.
Older Americans are far more likely to vote than young adults.
Approval Of President Biden's Policies
Net disapproval of Biden's economic policies widened to 22 points from 21 points in October and 14 points in September, though it's still holding above August's -27-point rating. Now adults disapprove of Biden's economic policies 50%-28% vs. 50%-29% last month and 47%-33% in September. In August, 54% disapproved and 27% approved of Biden's economic stewardship.
All signs point to inflation as a major source of Biden's poor reviews. U.S. employers added 10.3 million jobs in the first 21 months of Biden's presidency, including 261,000 last month, Labor Department data shows. Meanwhile, the average hourly wage has grown a strong 4.7% over the past year. Yet inflation has eaten away all of that increase and more for many Americans.
The IBD/TIPP Poll finds that just 20% of adults say their wages have kept pace with inflation, while 50% say they haven't kept pace. Meanwhile, 88% of Americans are concerned about the path of inflation over the next 12 months.
Is The U.S. Economy In A Recession?
The share of Americans who think the U.S. economy is in a recession eased to 58% from to 61% in October and 62% in August. Still, recession fears have mounted since May, when 48% of Americans believed a recession had begun.
Meanwhile, the IBD/TIPP Financial-Related Stress Index eased 1.7 points to 67.8 in November's poll. October's figure was just below April 2020's 69.8 record high in polling going back to December 2007. Readings above 50 mean financial stress is rising.
Now 32% of adults are concerned about job loss in their household, down from 38% in October and 34% in September.
Investors Stick By Biden
Investors now approve of Biden's job performance 53%-43% vs. 54%-44% in October and 56%-41% in September. That's despite a rough ride for stocks this year amid aggressive Federal Reserve tightening of monetary policy to stem the biggest inflation outbreak since the early 1980s.
IBD/TIPP counts as investors those respondents who say they have at least $10,000 in household-owned mutual funds or equities.
Through Friday, the Dow Jones was down 11.95% from its record closing high on Jan. 4. The S&P 500 has fallen 21.4% from its peak close and the Nasdaq composite 33.8%. Since Election Day on Nov. 3, 2020, the Dow is up 17.9% and the S&P 500 11.9%, but the Nasdaq has lost 6.1%.
Be sure to read IBD's The Big Picture column after each trading day to get the latest on the prevailing stock market trend and what it means for your trading decisions.
The president's big problem is among non-investors, who now disapprove of Biden's job performance, 54%-34% vs. 53%-33% in October and 51%-42% in September.
Midterm Elections
Republicans almost certainly will retake the House of Representatives in Tuesday's midterm elections. They appear to have the edge in winning the Senate, though that is less clear cut. Democrats currently have a slim majority in the House with Vice President Kamala Harris holding the tiebreaking vote in the 50-50 Senate.
Historically, the stock market performs better with divided government.
The November IBD/TIPP Poll reflects online surveys of 1,359 adults from Nov. 2-4. The results come with a credibility interval of +/- 2.8 points.
Please follow Jed Graham on Twitter @IBD_JGraham for coverage of economic policy and financial markets.
