For India to be a developed country by 2047 and on track to achieve net zero — or effectively zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2070 — it must significantly prioritise investments in nuclear energy and expanding related infrastructure, says a study by academics at the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad.
The results of the study, funded by the Office of the Principal Scientific Adviser and the Nuclear Power Corporation of India, were made public on Wednesday. Currently, nuclear energy makes up only 1.6% of India’s energy mix.
The report postulates several scenarios: A high, medium and low economic growth scenario as well as four situations where there is a “thrust” on nuclear energy, another with a thrust on expanding fossil fuel use along with employing carbon capture and storage; a third with an emphasis on renewable energy (solar, wind) and finally one that combines all of these.
The authors used mathematical models to estimate what proportion of various sources of energy would be required by 2030 and 2050 to arrive, by 2070, an ideal scenario of net zero emissions. This was further tempered by scenarios of India’s population achieving a human development index like Western European countries and the price of access to energy going down.
The best case, their calculations showed, were where emissions in 2070 fell to 0.55 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (‘net zero’ scenario). This translated to nuclear power rising five-fold from today’s levels to 30 GW (gigawatt) by 2030 and 265 GW by 2050. To put in perspective, it means nuclear power contributing 4% of India’s total energy by 2030 and sharply rising to 30% by 2050. In the same scenario, the share of solar power falls from 42% in 2030 to 30% in 2050.
Uranium availability
Currently, figures from the Central Electricity Authority say solar energy accounts for 16% of India’s installed generation capacity and coal 49%. To achieve these idealistic figures for nuclear energy would require a doubling of investments as well as the assumption that uranium, a critical fuel but restricted by international embargo, is available in necessary quantities.
The authors, led by Amit Garg, Professor, IIM Ahmedabad, said at a press conference that there was no “silver bullet” to achieve net zero and “myriad technologies needed to coexist” in India’s energy basket.
Coal would likely be the “backbone” of the Indian energy system and if the country has to phase down coal in the next three decades, it would need to build adequate infrastructure for alternative sources such as nuclear power, in addition to flexible grid infrastructure and storage to support the integration of renewable energy.
Overall, India would need close to ₹150-200 lakh crore between 2020-2070 to finance these transitions, the report added.
