JUPITER, Fla. — Nolan Arenado’s called-shot home run Monday to wrap up his first spring training with the Cardinals was a reminder of the star power the team boldly acquired this offseason.
Should we just assume he will burn bright in St. Louis for years to come?
Not so fast.
There were two looming what-ifs when the trade to obtain him was made.
The first was the unknown status of Arenado’s shoulder after an injury to it sapped his power at the plate last season. Judging by the third baseman’s comments and more importantly his swings this spring, including the one that sent a ball that was inches beneath the strike zone 411 feet over the Roger Dean Stadium wall Monday, the power is back on now that the shoulder has healed.
The other unknown remains.
Arenado can choose to opt out of his mega contract after this season or the next, if he prefers to chase free agency instead of staying with the Cardinals. So far, all signs point toward that being an unrealistic fear. Arenado says he’s here to stay. He’s become fast friends with his new teammates. Things are warm and fuzzy enough to make Cardinals haters roll their eyes.
But let’s not forget Arenado once was warm and fuzzy in Colorado, too. He changed his mind in large part because his big contract extension there was not followed up by other moves that sharpened the club’s chances to contend. One of the biggest reasons Arenado wanted to join the Cardinals was his belief they are striving for the World Series championship he so desperately wants to win.
This spring the Cardinals have cited their depth as the reason they feel confident making no additions from the outside (for now) after two starting pitchers (Miles Mikolas and Kwang Hyun Kim) and a starting outfielder (Harrison Bader) hit the injured list. A more cynical observer would say the Cardinals left camp for Cincinnati looking like a team that eventually could be in need of a starting pitcher and a corner outfielder.
Reversing a recent trend of trade-deadline passivity to improve the team’s chances of a deep run would have to be viewed in two ways. It would show the Cardinals are serious about snapping a championship wait that will reach 10 seasons if they don’t win it this year. It would show Arenado he’s where he wants to be. He left Colorado because he realized the big move (his extension) was not going to lead to more big moves around him. The Cardinals should learn from that lesson.
Some other final thoughts as the moving trucks rolled out of Camp Cardinal . . .
— It was surprising to hear manager Mike Shildt say he’s not certain the Cardinals will hit the 85% vaccination threshold required by Major League Baseball to unlock more relaxed COVID protocols. Teams that can do everything in their power to avoid virus-related absences and pauses will have a competitive advantage.
You would think the Cardinals would understand this, considering the massive outbreak that nearly ruined their 2020 season. Teams that can do more together — have team dinners, card games on the plane, etc. — should have an advantage in team chemistry as well. Could a team divided on the topic of the vaccine turn into a fractured team?
— Navigating the ongoing outfield experiment now is Shildt’s biggest test. He’s hitting with one strike. Unlike the front office, which has admitted it underestimated Randy Arozarena before trading him to Tampa, Shildt never has acknowledged that he should have found Arozarena more playing time in 2019.
That’s a whiff no matter how great Matthew Liberatore turns out to be for the Cardinals. Figuring out which outfielders to play when and how often is going to be a key to this season. The fear in Cardinal Nation is the team already traded the best option.
— The Cardinals should pick a lane and stay in it when discussing how hitters do or do not combat defensive shifts. Especially when it comes to Matt Carpenter. We have heard Shildt compliment players for beating the shift. We have heard him suggest a hard-hit ball by Carpenter that went straight into a thicket of defenders is a positive result. Talk about mixed messages.
— The Cardinals are putting a lot of pressure on Tommy Edman’s shoulders. As if his first season as the second-base starter and leadoff hitter is not enough, Edman is the only backup shortstop with a somewhat proven major-league bat on the opening-day roster — in addition to being the backup center fielder to Dylan Carlson as long as Harrison Bader is out. That’s a lot of responsibility riding on a player who has 530 at-bats in the majors.
— Kolten Wong is going to punish the Cardinals this season. You can just see it coming. The former Cards second baseman turned Brewers leadoff hitter averaged .333 with a .412 on-base percentage and a .733 slugging percentage this spring. He had nearly as many home runs (three) as strikeouts (four).
Some of it could be the hitter-friendly conditions of the Cactus League, sure. But Miller Park offers pretty friendly conditions for hitters, too. Wong has averaged .308 with a .373 on-base percentage and a .482 slugging percentage there.
— It’s a bummer Kodi Whitley didn’t make the opening-day roster. The Cardinals needed more innings insurance with Jake Woodford because of some of the question marks in the rotation. All Whitley did this spring was refuse to allow a run in eight appearances. He had twice as many strikeouts (10) as hits allowed, walked just three and converted both his save opportunities. He will factor in at some point.
— This season is going to work, folks. Baseball reported to spring training not knowing what to expect. It left with vaccinations on the near horizon and much more optimism. Credit to the players for pushing back on team owners’ insistence that the season needed to be shortened from 162 games to 154. People seem to forget it was the players who pushed for the normal slate.
Enjoy the games.
