The American League East could be an easy runaway victory for the New York Yankees.
Early this spring, it appeared the Toronto Blue Jays could give the Yankees a run for their money, but injuries have badly impacted the Blue Jays fortunes. They have to hope for an early return for star outfielder George Springer from an oblique strain.
The Yankees have so much offensive firepower, questionable starting pitching depth may not harm their chances to win a pennant and contend for a World Series title.
Below are this writer’s pennant predictions.
Payroll averages are those of FanGraphs. Win total predictions are this writer’s.
1st-New York Yankees-$202M payroll-101 wins
As we enter the new season, the New York Yankees are within $8M of the dreaded MLB Luxury Tax penalty. However, if the Yankees need a player to put them over the top, they have the financial resources to make a meaningful transaction.
American League pitchers will be facing a Yankees lineup that does not offer a breather anywhere from top to bottom.
DJ LeMahieu has signed a new contract with the team, and the second baseman could win a batting championship. He will be followed in the order by huge Aaron Judge, an enormous talent who, if healthy, can take any pitcher out of any park.
Centerfielder Aaron Hicks has the ability to get on base for designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton, a slugger who has missed considerable time with injuries.
Hard-hitting Luke Voit brings a powerful right-handed bat that fits perfectly in Yankee Stadium. Voit is out with a knee injury that requires surgery. He will be replaced by Jay Bruce. Voit could return in May.
Shortstop Gleyber Torres remains one of the better hitting shortstops in baseball, and he’ll be getting plenty of RBI chances. He is followed by third baseman Gio Urshela, a solid player on both sides of the ball.
Catcher Gary Sanchez may be on a short leash if he can’t cut down on his strikeouts. His poor overall defense may also help lead to a change behind the plate. Clint Frazier and his well above average strength and quick bat speed will hit 9th in the order.
The pitching staff centers on All Star right-hander Gerrit Cole, viewed as one of the top pitchers in the game. He will be followed by newly acquired Jameson Taillon and former Cy Young Award winning righty Corey Kluber, signed as a free agent.
Left-hander Jordan Montgomery adds a southpaw to the staff, with righty Domingo German likely holding down the last rotation spot.
That pitching order could change, but those are the expected starters.
The team anxiously awaits the return of right-hander Luis Severino, who should return from Tommy John surgery in mid-season.
The Yankees closer is flame-throwing lefty, Aroldis Chapman. He has been suspended for the first two games of the season for throwing at a batter last year.
Home Run Threat: Clint Frazier
2nd-Toronto Blue Jays-$139M payroll-89 wins
Prized free agent acquisition George Springer has been diagnosed with a Grade II oblique strain that could sideline him for some time. He joins closer Kirby Yates on the injury list. Yates will be recovering from Tommy John surgery.
In addition to Yates and Springer, lefty starter Robbie Ray slipped on stairs and bruised his elbow. He’s sidelined for a bit. Not to mention that starter Nate Pearson is dealing with a strained groin and hasn’t pitched much this spring.
When centerfielder Springer returns, he will be the catalyst of a potentially potent offense. Leading off, he will score plenty of runs hitting in front of second baseman Marcus Semien, who is converting from his usual role as a shortstop. Semien is a free agent acquisition.
Solid hitting shortstop Bo Bichette hits third, followed by hard-hitting right fielder Teoscar Hernandez. Hernandez has some strikeout issues, but he’s plenty powerful. He will hit ahead of trimmed down Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who moves to first base from third base.
Competent Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will hit 5th and play left field. Versatile left-handed hitting Cavan Biggio converts from second base to third and hits 7th. It is likely that power-hitter Rowdy Tellez will share designated hitter duties with right-handed hitting Randal Grichuck. Catcher Danny Jansen will hit 9th.
The rotation includes left-handed starter Hyun Jin-Kim, a solid starter who has battled injuries in his past, but seems very healthy this spring. Righty Ross Stripling will follow. The third starter appears to be left-hander Steven Matz. Righty Tanner Roark will pitch in the No. 4 slot. The final rotation role should go to lefty Anthony Kay, at least until Nate Pearson (groin strain) or Robby Ray claim that role.
With Yates injured, Jordan Romano may be the best bet to close.
Powerful Bat: Rowdy Tellez
3rd-Tampa Bay Rays-$66M payroll-88 wins
Make no mistake, the Rays pitching is not what fans have been accustomed to watching. Gone are lefty Blake Snell and right-hander Charlie Morton, two very good starters.
The offense could have trouble scoring runs. That may put even more pressure on the pitching staff.
With a knee injury to Ji-Man Choi, Yoshi Tsutsugo may be the team’s leadoff hitter and first baseman to start the season. Austin Meadows looks to return to his hitting form as the club’s designated hitter. But he may share that role. He could be followed by 2020 postseason phenom Randy Arozarena, a very powerful left fielder.
Arozarena could be followed by left-handed hitting second baseman Brandon Lowe in the cleanup spot.
Miguel Margot, a pesky hitter, is the right fielder. Joey Wendle should win the third base job and bat 6th. Shortstop Willy Adames will hold his position until highly regarded prospect Wander Franco is promoted and added to the roster. Then Adames may move to second.
Centerfielder Kevin Kiermaier will try to improve his hitting, but he brings value as a solid defensive outfielder. The 9th place hitter should be catcher Mike Zunino.
For this old scout, the starting pitching isn’t anywhere close to as effective as Rays teams in the past. That fact, coupled with a weak hitting offense could spell trouble.
The Rays may alternate between right-handed and left-handed starters with effective, competent righty Tyler Glasnow leading the way. He should be followed by Ryan Yarbrough, Chris Archer, Rich Hill and Michael Wacha. Archer returns to the Rays after pitching in Pittsburgh. Hill and Wacha were signed as free agents.
The Rays may use a vast committee of closers.
Searching For His Swing: Austin Meadows
4th-Boston Red Sox-$189M payroll-80 wins
While the Red Sox offense may be formidable in spots, the pitching staff is not improved.
Free agent Enrique Hernandez should play second base and lead off. He will be followed by left-handed hitting Alex Verdugo, who came to Boston in the Mookie Betts trade. J.D. Martinez looks to reclaim his hitting stroke as the team’s designated hitter. Strong hitting shortstop Xander Bogaerts hits cleanup.
Look for third baseman Rafael Devers to really add some pop to the lineup. He will be followed by new right fielder Hunter Renfroe, a hitter that can consistently pound the ball off the Green Monster in left field.
Franchy Cordero, who came over in a trade from the Royals should win the left field job. Catcher Christian Vasquez will hit 8th, followed by first baseman Bobby Dalbec, who is showing tremendous power again this spring.
For this writer, the pitching staff is a true liability, both in the rotation and the bullpen.
Left-handed starter Eduardo Rodriguez should be the best of the lot, but he is out for the moment with a “dead” arm. Nathan Eovaldi takes the top spot. He’ll be followed by right-handed rookie Tanner Houck and Garrett Richards who has struggled for consistency. Right-hander Nick Pivetta and lefty Martin Perez don’t offer much upside as the final two starters.
Righty Matt Barnes is the closer.
Possible Big Breakout: Bobby Dalbec
5th-Baltimore Orioles-$61M payroll-60 wins
Orioles fans have little hope for success. However, after a bout with colon cancer, the return of designated hitter Trey Mancini is heartening and offers something to cheer about. He’s an outstanding hitter.
The Orioles offense isn’t stellar, but it is an inexperienced and untested pitching staff that could cause excessive heartburn.
Cedric Mullins may be the centerfielder getting the most at-bats. He will be followed by Mancini, who brings legitimate power to a weak lineup.
Anthony Santander could be a surprise as the right fielder hitting third in the order. Rookie Ryan Mountcastle has looked great this spring and could hit for power as the first baseman.
Chance Sisco and Pedro Severino could split the catching duties.
Austin Hays is finally healthy and could hit 6th and play left field. He would be followed by newly acquired free agent third baseman Maikel Franco, a natural for Camden Yards friendly confines. Free agents Freddy Galvis and Ramon Urias play shortstop and second base, completing the lineup.
The pitching staff includes lefty John Means, right-hander Dean Kremer, lefty Keegan Akin, righty Jorge Lopez and probably non-roster invitee Matt Harvey rounding out a staff of relatively unknown and unproven starters.
No true closer has been named, and a committee that could include lefty Tanner Scott and right-handers Cesar Valdez, Dillon Tate or even someone else, could get save chances.
Rookie Of The Year Candidate: Ryan Mountcastle
Summary:
The disparity in team payrolls in the AL East tells a complexing story. There is no question that money matters.
The New York Yankees are at the top of the heap in the American League East. They have great, great hitting and enough pitching to win, and win easily.
The injury bug has hit the Toronto Blue Jays. That and the fact they can’t play in their home park in Toronto during the pandemic has given the Blue Jays serious issues entering the season. They will begin 2021 playing games at their spring training facility in Florida.
But if they return to health and can get in the home park by June, they can give the Yankees a scare.
For this old scout, Tampa Bay has lost too much pitching to contend with either New York or a healthy Toronto. Unlike either of those clubs, they may not have the financial wherewithal to plug any mid-season holes with new players.
The Red Sox have deteriorated and have not fixed a woeful starting pitching staff. The team may even be ready to part with a big bat or two during the season to reduce payroll and add pitching.
Finally, the Orioles pitching may be the weakest in baseball. The end result could be a struggle to win 60 games. However, Trey Mancini, Anthony Santander and Ryan Mountcastle may provide exciting offensive firepower, worthy of purchasing a game ticket at beautiful Camden Yards.
