The Cardinals have 13 games left before the regular season pauses for MLB's All-Star break.
They can win at least four of them, right?
Here's why I ask: The kind of history no team wants to make is within regrettable reach. Without at least four wins in these final 13 first-half games, the 2023 Cardinals would set the organization's expansion-era low for first-half winning percentage.
So far, the 1978 Cardinals' first-half clip of .391 remains the lowest in the expansion era (1961 to present). The 2023 Cardinals return from their London split against the Cubs playing at a .416 speed. That would put them second to last, if it holds. They need at least four wins to lock the dysfunctional 1978 team — manager Vern Rapp's last ride — into last place.
— Now some good news. Maybe. Recent history says the Cardinals are a second-half team. You have to go all the way back to 2007 to find the last Cardinals team that lost more games than it won after the All-Star break. And since 2019, the Cardinals have won 63% or more of their second-half games. Protecting a National League-leading stretch of consecutive winning seasons (15) depends on that trend continuing.
— The Yankees have been robbed of Aaron Judge because of a bad toe. The Astros are trailing the Rangers and barely holding off the Angels. Is it possible the scariest of the Cardinals' next three opponents is the ... Marlins? Former Cardinals bench coach Skip Schumaker is reeling in a National League Manager of the Year case. His Fish are in the top NL wild-card spot if the season ended today, trailing only the mighty Braves in the NL East. Impressive. At least the Cardinals wrap up with the White Sox. Not impressive.
— Time will tell if the division-leading Reds are the new flavor of the month in the NL Central or the team that will finally take what division foes have repeatedly left up for grabs. If Cincinnati does slam the door, don't forget what happened May 22. The Cardinals arrived in Cincinnati after a series win at home against the Dodgers, carrying something close to real momentum. Cincinnati beat the Cards 6-5 in the 10th inning. The Reds were 21-10 since entering Monday's game against the Orioles. The Cardinals? They're 11-17.
— Adam Wainwright deactivated his Twitter account due to online criticism he encountered following his terrible start across the pond. What those ripping Wainwright seem to be missing is that his return on a single-season, $17.5 million contract that included a large chunk of deferred dough didn't stop the Cardinals from upgrading the rotation in other ways. And if that's the reason it did, that's more on the Cardinals than Wainwright. The Cardinals could have, for example, added a top-shelf starter through free agency or trade and moved Steven Matz to the bullpen. They made that move anyway this season and did it without a top-shelf starter to replace Matz. The Cardinals knew their rotation was short with or without Wainwright. Instead of addressing it, they ignored it and hoped for the best. It backfired. Taking that out on Wainwright seems wrong. The Cardinals have 20 quality starts from their rotation. That's third-worst in the National League. Thirteen teams have 30-plus.
— Those advocating for the Cardinals to trade Paul Goldschmidt — the Cardinals are not interested, they insist — should take a moment and remember some of the suspect first-base defense that appeared between Albert Pujols' departure and Goldschmidt's Gold Glove-worthy arrival. Are the same folks who are rushing Jordan Walker out of the outfield due to some growing pains assuming Walker would be an immediate defensive whiz at unfamiliar first base?
— Walker's 15-game hitting streak has lifted his season batting average to .302 and bumped his on-base plus slugging percentage to .841. He's in the top 10 in OPS among MLB rookies. The Cardinals will argue his demotion "worked," but we don't have to buy that rationalization. He's had 12- and 15-game hitting streaks for a team suffering from inconsistent offense. Maybe he should have just remained in the majors.
— Willson Contreras is averaging .357 with a .400 on-base percentage and a .571 slugging percentage over his most recent 30 plate appearances. Manager Oliver Marmol stuck with the confidence-challenged catcher, and it seems to be working. Watching the approach was a nice change of pace from the earlier flap about Contreras' catching.
— The eye test is not the only thing that says something is up with Nolan Arenado's usually elite defense. According to FanGraphs' edition of defensive runs saved, Arenado is trending toward his first below-average defensive season at the hot corner since he debuted in 2013. He's never been worse than six runs above average at third. He's minus-three so far this season. It's strange.
— FanGraphs' math is most optimistic about the Cardinals making a miraculous run. It assigns the locals a 12.4% chance to make the postseason. If you think that's bad, check out the projections at FiveThirtyEight (9%) and Baseball Reference (2.5%).
— Here's how bad the NL Central is this season: FanGraphs' math says no team in it has a better than 2.1% chance (Brewers) to enter the expanded postseason via wild-card route.
— Goldschmidt deserves to be an All-Star. Making a convincing case for any other Cardinal requires enough of a reach to risk an appearance on the injured list.
— What will the crowds look like at Busch Stadium this homestand? So far, the Cardinals' struggles haven't done much to dent attendance. They are averaging an announced crowd of 41,145 per game, trailing only the Dodgers' 48,081.
