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Roll Call
Daniela Altimari

At the Races: The truth about trifectas - Roll Call

Ready to get to work” and “immediately start delivering for the American people.”

That’s the message House and Senate Republican leaders are sending as they prepare to advance President-elect Donald Trump’s policy agenda over the first 100 days of the new Congress.

Border security, taxes and dismantling the “deep state” are among the GOP’s initial proposals — and party leaders are eager to get started.

The hurried pace contrasts sharply with the vibe of the 118th Congress, especially in the House, where intraparty feuding, fights over the speaker’s gavel and ideological rifts among the Republicans who hold the majority have made it difficult to pass legislation. 

Republicans know the clock is ticking. Historically, the party that controls the White House loses seats in the first midterm election after its victory. (That statistic comes with an asterisk this year since this is technically Trump’s second term.)

The last time the GOP held the trifecta of controlling the White House, Senate and House was during the first two years of Trump’s first term, beginning in January 2017. Over that span, Republicans enacted a number of key pieces of legislation in line with Trump’s policy priorities, including sweeping tax cuts and rolling back regulations, but not before they spent months on a failed effort to overhaul the 2010 health care law. 

Democrats gained their own federal government trifecta in 2021 and were able to push through key elements of President Joe Biden’s agenda, including a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package, a bipartisan infrastructure bill, a measure to boost semiconductor manufacturing and scientific research and the first major gun safety legislation in nearly three decades. But Democratic infighting blocked Biden’s proposal to extend a child tax credit, and the courts thwarted his student loan debt relief measure.

The ticking clock isn’t the only struggle facing House Republicans: A historically narrow majority could complicate the party’s efforts to enact Trump’s agenda. “Do the math. We have nothing to spare,” Speaker Mike Johnson said at a news conference last week. “But all of our members know that … this is a team effort. … We’ve got to all row in the same direction.”

Starting gate

From winning strategy to influence in Congress: Some Democrats in competitive House districts found success this cycle by talking tough on border security, effectively neutralizing a key Republican line of attack. They are now poised to wield significant influence as Congress takes on the issue.

Staying on: Washington Rep. Suzan DelBene will lead the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee for another two years, meaning both parties are keeping their campaign chiefs in place for the 2026 cycle. (North Carolina Rep. Richard Hudson was elected to another term as the NRCC chair last month.) 

Lake for VOA: Kari Lake, who lost Arizona’s Senate race this year, is in line to be appointed head of Voice of America once Trump’s new head of the U.S. Agency for Global Media is confirmed, the president-elect said in a statement Wednesday night.

Bishop to OMB: Fresh off a loss to Democratic Rep. Jeff Jackson for North Carolina attorney general, outgoing Republican Rep. Dan Bishop was picked as Trump’s deputy budget director, our colleague Aidan Quigley reports.

ICYMI

Target list: House Majority PAC, a super PAC aligned with House Democratic leaders, listed 29 districts as its top targets to flip in the 2026 midterm elections, including seats in states such as Arizona, California and Iowa that were competitive this year and seats in Michigan and Virginia that weren’t closely contested. The group listed another 16 Republican-held seats on their “districts to watch” list that it said could become competitive with certain candidates on the ballot. 

#FLSEN: Trump spoke with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis about appointing Lara Trump, the president-elect’s daughter-in-law, to succeed GOP Sen. Marco Rubio, who is set to be nominated as secretary of state. Lara Trump stepped down as Republican National Committee co-chair on Sunday night. DeSantis is considering several candidates to fill Rubio’s seat and is expected to make a decision next month.

#NMGOV: Semafor reports that New Mexico Sen. Martin Heinrich declined to say whether he might run for governor in 2026 to succeed term-limited fellow Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham. Heinrich, who just won reelection to his Senate seat, is expected to be the incoming ranking member on the Energy and Natural Resources Committee.

Next at the RNC: Trump backed KC Crosbie, the current RNC treasurer and a national committeewoman from Kentucky, to be the RNC’s new co-chair. Michael Whatley will continue as committee chair, with the former president endorsing him last week as a “a trusted partner as we Make America Great Again.”  

#PAGOV: Pennsylvania Rep. Dan Meuser is weighing a run for governor in 2026, when Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro will be up for a second term. Commonwealth Treasurer Stacy Garrity, fresh off winning reelection last month, is considered another potential candidate. 

Ad watch: The political arm of the Heritage Foundation is launching an ad campaign that will run in nine states and the District of Columbia to urge key senators to confirm Trump’s announced nominees, part of an effort by the GOP’s conservative wing to line up support for Trump’s picks. The ads by Heritage Action will run in the home states of incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune, outgoing Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell, Sens. Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins, Joni Ernst, Bill Cassidy, Thom Tillis and Todd Young and Sen.-elect John Curtis. 

Staffing up: Micah Yousefi was named the National Republican Campaign Committee executive director for the 2026 cycle. Yousefi was the committee’s deputy executive director for the past two years. 

On the comeback trail: Democratic former Rep. Anthony Weiner, who served federal prison time for sending explicit texts to a minor, is laying the groundwork for a comeback, filing this week to run for the New York City Council, NY1 reported

Another term: California Rep. Linda T. Sánchez has been reelected as chair of BOLD PAC, the campaign arm of the all-Democratic Congressional Hispanic Caucus, which gained seven new members in the recent election. New York Rep. Adriano Espaillat was elected as caucus chair last month, succeeding California Rep. Nanette Barragán.

What we’re reading 

Wins and losses: Republican women are notably absent from the roster of House committee chairs, Punchbowl News observes. But on the state level, a record number of women were elected nationwide, according to an analysis by the Center for American Women and Politics. Female lawmakers are expected to occupy about a third of state legislative seats nationwide, and women are projected to hold 50 percent or more of the seats in eight state chambers, although the numbers could still fluctuate before the start of the legislative sessions.

Jacked up: The Washington Post takes stock of Jack Schlossberg, the 31-year-old grandson of John F. Kennedy who holds no office but has parlayed his famous name into social media celebrity. 

How Tran did it: Politico dissects Democrat Derek Tran’s victory over Republican Rep. Michelle Steel in California’s 45th District in Orange County. The race, which Tran won by about 650 votes, was the nation’s most expensive House contest.  

Filling the swamp: Kate Ackley at Bloomberg Government, our former Roll Call colleague, looks at the lobbyists whom Trump has selected for top administration jobs. 

Pelosi on the Catholic vote: Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi says fellow Catholic voters who turned away from the Democratic Party this year represent “a complete departure from what we were raised to believe was our social contract in terms of being Catholic and our responsibilities to other people.” She told National Catholic Reporter that low voter turnout played a role as well.

MAGA-fluence: Politico looks at efforts by Trump allies to pressure Senate Republicans to support the president-elect’s announced nominees, including veiled threats of primary challenges. But senators, including some up for reelection in two years, may not take well to that kind of pressure. 

The count: 7,309 

That’s the combined margin of victory in the three closest House races won by Republicans out of the 147,675,540 votes cast for House candidates nationwide, Inside Elections’ Jacob Rubashkin notes. Those three wins allowed the GOP to retain their slim majority in the chamber while flipping the Senate and White House more decisively, giving the party unified control of the federal government next year. 

As Rubaskin reports, it’s the smallest share of the overall vote (0.005 percent) to decide the majority in any election since at least 1994.

The three closest races won by House Republicans this year were in Iowa’s 1st District (799 votes), Colorado’s 8th (2,448 votes) and Pennsylvania’s 7th (4,062 votes).

by Roll Call’s Ryan Kelly

Nathan’s notes

CQ Roll Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales takes a look at the possibility of outgoing North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper running for Senate in 2026. The list of high-profile governors who’ve lost bids for Senate, often by wide margins, is not short.  But a potential Cooper challenge to Republican Sen. Thom Tillis could be different, Gonzales writes. 

Coming up

Lawmakers on Capitol Hill will seek to finish up their work for the year by the end of next week, including approving must-pass measures such as the defense policy bill and an extension of government funding, while also preparing for the next Congress by picking committee chairs and ranking members. 

Photo finish 

Democrat Andy Kim takes in John Trumbull’s “Declaration of Independence” painting in the Capitol Rotunda on Monday before being sworn in as New Jersey’s newest senator. Kim succeeded fellow Democrat George Helmy, who was appointed to the seat after the resignation of Sen. Bob Menendez in August. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

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The post At the Races: The truth about trifectas appeared first on Roll Call.

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