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From concerts to campaign cash, 2024 is shaping up as a test of the crypto industry’s political strength.
On Wednesday, Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer of New York and other crypto-friendly Democrats joined a virtual town hall for Kamala Harris. The Democratic presidential nominee represents an opportunity for supporters of digital assets: Stand with Crypto, an industry-funded advocacy group, gave President Joe Biden a D rating but notes that Harris hasn’t said much on the topic.
The group also is launching a voter mobilization bus tour and concert next month, with stops in Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The outreach will target 4 million cryptocurrency owners in those five swing states.
But crypto’s biggest measure of influence is the growing financial footprint of Fairshake and its affiliated super PACs: Defend American Jobs, which backs Republicans, and Protect Progress, which supports Democrats.
The PACs announced plans to shower cash on three key Senate races. Defend American Jobs will begin reserving $12 million in time to boost Bernie Moreno, a crypto-booster who founded a blockchain business and is running to unseat Ohio Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. Protect Progress will spend about $3 million each to back two Democratic Senate candidates: Reps. Ruben Gallego of Arizona and Elissa Slotkin of Michigan.
The industry already has invested heavily in several House races this cycle. Defend American Jobs dropped $17 million in support of GOP candidates in primaries, while Protect Progress has spent $13 million helping Democrats.
Among crypto’s biggest wins: defeating progressive Democratic Reps. Cori Bush of Missouri and Jamaal Bowman of New York. Fairshake spent $1.4 million on ads opposing Bush and $2 million on ads attacking Bowman.
In Washington state’s open 6th District, Protect Progress dropped $1.5 million to boost state Sen. Emily Randall, a Democrat who advanced to the November ballot. And the industry spent $10 million against Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, who lost a March primary for California’s open Senate seat.
But other efforts fell short. The crypto-aligned PACs spent $4 million promoting Democrat Dan Helmer in Virginia, $583,000 backing Republican Blake Masters in Arizona and $415,000 supporting Democrat Andrei Cherny in Arizona.
They all lost.
Starting gate
Battle for second: Allison Mollenkamp reports on the all-party primary coming up on Tuesday in Alaska, where the real jockeying may be for the second of four slots on the November ballot behind incumbent Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola. Four candidates will advance, and the Republican votes could be sliced in a way that makes Peltola’s path either easier or more difficult.
‘Squad’ survivor: Rep. Ilhan Omar’s comfortable win in Tuesday’s primary contrasted with the ouster of two of her progressive colleagues from Missouri and New York, but it fit easily in a relatively undramatic primary night on Tuesday. It was a surprise to get a final race call on a primary held in June in Utah, but that only confirmed who appeared to have won over a month ago. Politics Editor Herb Jackson and Editor-in-Chief Jason Dick discussed those races and more on this week’s episode of the Political Theater podcast.
Drug price cuts: The long-anticipated results of Medicare drug price negotiations are here, and Vice President Kamala Harris was touting her role casting the tie-breaking vote in the Senate for the reconciliation bill that let it happen. “During the two years since President Biden signed this landmark bill into law, we have cut prescription drug costs, capped the cost of insulin at $35 a month, and lowered premiums for seniors and people with disabilities on Medicare — helping millions of families get the care they deserve,” Harris said in a statement. Jessie Hellmann has the full story here.
Abortion voters: Add Arizona and Missouri to the list of states where abortion questions will be on the ballot in November, as Sandhya Raman reports for CQ Roll Call. Missouri Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft certified that the petition to get the issue on the ballot in his state had enough support Tuesday.
Helmy to get Senate nod: New Jersey Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy intends to appoint his former chief of staff, George Helmy, to the seat being vacated by next week’s resignation of convicted Sen. Bob Menendez. Helmy would serve until the end of the current term on Jan. 3.
Not avoiding it: Harris and other Democratic candidates are trying to blunt Republican attacks on border security, seen as a major liability for the Biden administration, with counterattacks, CQ Roll Call’s Chris Johnson reports.
ICYMI
Former mayor replaces Jackson Lee on regular ballot: Leaders of the Harris County Democratic Party have selected former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner as the replacement candidate for the 18th District regular election following the death of Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee. “The HCDP is very excited to work with him to continue Congresswoman Jackson Lee’s legacy and to turn Texas blue,” Chair Mike Doyle said in a statement. Turner prevailed in the second round of balloting of precinct chairs, Houston Public Media reports.
Daughter running as interim successor: Erica Lee Carter, Jackson Lee’s daughter, is running to replace her mother for the balance of the unexpired term (effectively the post-election lame-duck session).
New to Red to Blue: The DCCC added three winners of recent primaries to its list of “Red to Blue” candidates, which provides special help mostly for challengers who have a shot of flipping seats in the party’s estimation. They are Amish Shah, who is taking on Rep. David Schweikert in Arizona’s 1st District; Carl Marlinga, who is facing Rep. John James in Michigan’s 10th; and Rebecca Cooke, who is up against Rep. Derrick Van Orden in Wisconsin’s 3rd District.
Member vs. member fight: In the race between two sitting House members for North Carolina attorney general, Republican Rep. Dan Bishop led Democratic Rep. Jeff Jackson, 42 percent to 38 percent, in a poll of 600 likely voters taken Aug. 4-5 by the Carolina Journal. The poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 points, found Trump with a 3-point lead over Harris, who is making a campaign stop in Raleigh, N.C., on Friday that was postponed last week because of Hurricane Debby.
Ad watch: Winning for Women, which works to elect female Republicans, announced a $1 million ad campaign in California’s 40th and 45th districts and Virginia’s 2nd District. One Nation, the nonprofit arm of the Senate Leadership Fund, launched a $7.5 million ad effort in Wisconsin. Its first ad attacks Sen. Tammy Baldwin over her support for funding for sanctuary cities. Hovde’s campaign, meanwhile, released an ad Thursday featuring his wife, Sharon, who talks about her struggles as a single mother when she met her now husband.
Endorsement tracker: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsed Republican Tom Barrett in Michigan’s 7th District.
Remember him? Expelled Rep. George Santos is preparing for a trial, set to begin next month, in which a federal judge said the jury will be kept anonymous but denied a request from the New York Republican’s lawyers to have prospective jurors fill out a written questionnaire.
What we’re reading
Columnist corner: Harris may have already gotten a “convention bounce,” Stu Rothenberg writes. David Winston, meanwhile, says Trump’s path to victory is through policy, not personality.
Mobilization 101: In June, Maury Litwack helped boost Jewish voter turnout in New York’s 16th District, a key factor in Westchester County Executive George Latimer’s win over Bowman. Now he says he’s getting requests from organizers in swing seats who are seeking to replicate that effort. “We are getting calls from all around the country of people saying to us, ‘How do I bring this to my hometown?’” Litwak, founder of Teach Coalition, told City & State.
Talking fracking: Harris has walked back her 2019 call to ban fracking, but The Washington Post looks at how that stance will play a role this fall in Pennsylvania, which is also home to a competitive Senate race and a few key House races.
IVF campaign: Democrat Sue Altman has made access to in vitro fertilization a focal point of her race against Rep. Tom Kean in New Jersey’s 7th District, Politico reports.
Senate advisers: Axios reports that Schumer, Nevada Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker and California Sens. Laphonza Butler and Alex Padilla make up Harris’ “Senate brain trust.”
November storm: Disruptions this week when two of Arizona’s largest counties certified the results of last month’s primary elections could be a harbinger of more protests come November. Votebeat reported on raucous supervisors’ meetings in Pinal and Maricopa counties when votes were certified.
The count: 5 points
That’s how much support moved nationally on whether voters were going to pick Democrats or Republicans in House races this year, according to a Monmouth University poll released Wednesday. In a June poll, Republicans had a 48 percent to 45 percent edge on what’s called the generic ballot question, but the latest survey, taken Aug. 8-12, had Democrats on top with 48 percent to 46 percent. Of course, national polls don’t decide who controls the House, and races will be run in 435 districts, but the shift indicates that the poll’s top-line finding of a surge in enthusiasm from Democratic and independent voters could have down-ballot effects.
Nathan’s notes
Nathan’s deputy editor, Jacob Rubashkin, is seeking suggestions this week for the next congressional race that should be the focus of polling by Inside Elections and Noble Predictive.
Key race: #NH02
Candidates: Democrats Colin Van Ostern, a former member of the state’s Executive Council who lost a bid for governor in 2016, and Maggie Goodlander, who was a deputy assistant attorney general in the Department of Justice during the Biden administration and also worked as a senior adviser at the White House, are facing off in the Democratic primary. There are 13 Republicans running, although only four have reported raising any money with the Federal Election Commission. Those four are Vikram Mansharamani, an entrepreneur who ran for Senate in 2022; Lily Tang Williams, chair of the NH Asian American Coalition; Bill Hamlen, an oil trader; and Paul M. Wagner.
Why it matters: The 2nd District seat is open this year after Rep. Ann McLane Kuster decided to retire after six terms. The competitive race between Van Ostern and Goodlander forces Democratic voters to choose between a candidate with more local experience versus one whose professional background is based in Washington. Meanwhile, Republicans hope a strong candidate coming out of a crowded primary can force a competitive general election in a seat they haven’t held since 2013. The NRCC added the district to its target list in June.
Cash dash: Goodlander had outraised Van Ostern at the end of the second quarter. She had $1.3 million on hand at the end of June, compared with the $879,000 he had at the time. Women Vote has spent $120,000 supporting Goodlander, while the Principled Veterans Fund spent $154,000 supporting her. On the Republican side, Mansharamani led in fundraising. He had $353,000 on hand as of June 30, compared with Williams’ $305,000. Hamlen had $244,000 and Wagner had $590.
Backers: Van Ostern is backed by Kuster, as well as former Gov. John Lynch. The New Democrat Coalition Action Fund also endorsed Van Ostern. EMILY’s List, a group that supports Democratic women who favor abortion rights, endorsed Goodlander, and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who gave a reading at Goodlander’s wedding, endorsed her on Thursday. Mansharamani touts endorsements from several Republicans in the state, including Don Bolduc, who lost a Senate race in 2022, and former Massachusetts Sen. Scott P. Brown. The Republican Main Street Partnership PAC also endorsed Mansharamani.
What they’re saying: Goodlander has made reproductive rights a central part of her campaign. In her May launch video, she talked about experiencing a stillbirth. “When I was almost 20 weeks pregnant, we found that we had lost our little boy,” she said. “He was still in my womb. … I went into labor and I delivered our baby myself.” Van Ostern’s latest ad discusses his personal history and highlights his work to expand Medicaid in New Hampshire. On the campaign trail this summer he’s talked about lowering costs and protecting reproductive freedoms. But the Democratic primary is heating up, and the campaigns are beginning to sling attacks. Van Ostern’s campaign said in a memo on its website this week that voters need to know that Goodlander “left New Hampshire nearly two decades ago and doesn’t understand our lives.” In its own memo posted to Goodlander’s campaign website on Wednesday, her campaign said primary voters need to see messaging “that communicates that Colin Van Ostern has a pattern of doing the wrong thing when he thinks no one is looking.” Both campaigns seem to be targeting women and older voters. While the Democratic primary has gotten more attention, Republicans have also been campaigning. Mansharamani has focused on lowering costs and curbing illegal immigration, although he says he supports legal immigration. In a State of the Race memo released last month, his campaign said his biography and message are resonating with voters.
Terrain: The 2nd District covers the western and most northern parts of New Hampshire, including Nashua and Concord, the state capital. Biden won the district by 9 percentage points in 2020, and Kuster won her 2022 race by 12 percentage points. Inside Elections rates the race as Likely Democratic.
Wild card: Goodlander’s husband is Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser.
Coming up
Along with the Democratic convention in Chicago — where the At the Races team will be writing stories, podcasting and munching on deep-dish pizza — there are primaries Tuesday in Alaska, Florida and Wyoming.
Photo finish
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The post At the Races: Crypto campaigning appeared first on Roll Call.
