A 60-metre-long asteroid has a chance of slamming into Earth within the next decade, telescope observations have revealed.
A team of researchers from Arizona’s Catalina Sky Survey last Christmas discovered what has become known as Asteroid 2024 YR4 – and, this week, the asteroid has been placed at level 3 in the Torino impact hazard scale, meaning it has the highest probability of being tracked by Nasa and other space agencies. The scale goes up to 10, when impact is certain and civilisation is threatened.
This marks “one of the highest probabilities of an impact from a significantly sized rock ever”, David Rankin, a Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) observer, wrote on social media site BlueSky.
The asteroid came to attention after analysis of data collected by the CSS, having initially been found by a Nasa-funded ATLAS project, which used a telescope in Chile, according to Space.com.
Mr Rankin's statement comes just a week after he wrote on the platform that the newly discovered rock has a non-zero chance of impact. However, the odds have now been raised slightly to a one in 83 chance.
Tony Dunn, an amateur astronomer, said on X, formerly Twitter: “It is thought to be 40-100 meters wide. Uncertainty is still high and more observations are needed to confirm this.”
It is thought more observation is needed to understand how close 2024 YR4 could approach Earth.
But when could the asteroid potentially strike, and what would be its impact if it did?
Christmas 2032
The “meteor crater size” rock, which is around half as wide as a football field, is likely to very closely approach Earth just before Christmas 2032.
Early estimates indicate that December 22 of that year could be when it most nearly approaches our planet.
In any case, Mr Rankin has said that the date “is one to keep an eye out for”, pointing to similarities with December 2023 when there were reports of another asteroid likely to approach Earth during that month.
Potential impact and where it could hit
An impact could cause an explosion in the atmosphere, called an "airburst" or could cause an impact crater, and many expect it has the potential to cause local damage – although sources point to the size of an asteroid determining the aftermath of a collision or strike.
Nasa has previously mentioned that asteroids are present outside Earth's atmosphere more frequently than we realise and that about once a year, a car-sized asteroid enters it, creating an impressive fireball. However, the asteroids burn up before reaching the ground.
Of the Asteroid 2024 YR4, Mr Rankin said: "It is just important to keep in mind that its orbit is still too uncertain to know if it will hit and, right now, the most likely outcome is a miss. This impact corridor estimation will eventually go stale with new observations and better orbit calculations.”
The Catalina Sky Survey engineer added that currently the “risk corridor” for impact runs from South America across the Atlantic to sub-Saharan Africa.
