The first thing to acknowledge is that the Premier League has been here before. There have been times in the past, most obviously at around this time last year, that Manchester City have looked distinctly mortal. Could it be that they are not, in fact, some supernatural winning machine but just an everyday exceptional side? Certainly at the Emirates on Sunday they did not look like the inevitable champions they did in, say, the two wins over Arsenal last season.
Arsenal still needed a deflected winner, just as they had needed a deflected equaliser to pinch the Community Shield against City on penalties in August. City still edged the game on xG. There was certainly no sense in which Arsenal outplayed City; if this does improbably turn out to be an era-defining defeat, it will have been an unusually humdrum one.
What was striking was how ordinary the game felt: this was a top-of-the-table clash from another generation. We’ve become accustomed to elite sides ripping into each other, competing to press higher and harder, leaving spaces, to the season’s landmark fixtures being thrilling slugfests. This was more like the Ferguson-Wenger years – without ever descending to the full astringency of a Mourinho-Benítez clash.
In part, that was a consequence of the selections of both managers: Mikel Arteta, by bringing in Jorginho, allowed Declan Rice to play higher up the pitch, beefing up the Arsenal press. Pep Guardiola, by shifting Julián Álvarez wide and playing Bernardo Silva centrally, in front of Rico Lewis and Mateo Kovačić, tilted his midfield from creativity to caution. With Phil Foden on the opposite flank to Álvarez, there was very little width until Jéremy Doku came off the bench. With Arsenal’s defence happily operating narrow, that meant an extremely congested centre and, as a result, very little goalmouth action.
Erling Haaland had only 23 touches, none of them shots. The number of touches isn’t in itself that important: against West Ham last month, Haaland had 22 touches but nine of them were shots. He is a minimalist. Only twice before for City has Haaland failed to register a shot: against Arsenal in the Community Shield at Wembley, and in the away league defeat to Tottenham last season. Apart from suggesting that he really doesn’t like playing against north London clubs in north London, that shows that if opponents can get players around him, if they can deny him space to run into, if they can cut off the supply of crosses – three big ifs – he can be stopped. A record of one goal in his last five games wouldn’t be anything to worry about for a conventional striker but by his standards, it feels an almost incredible drought.
City as a whole had only four shots, fewer than they have had in any other Premier League game under Guardiola. Previously, the way to beat City was the way Wolves did last week: sit deep, absorb pressure, make them pass in areas where they’re not hurting you, then attack on the break with fliers who can carry the ball. But Newcastle in the Carabao Cup, in the second half at least, and then Arsenal, beat City as you would beat a normal top side; Arsenal on Sunday had 49% possession.
There is the obvious caveat that these discussions were happening in autumn last year. Had the introduction of Haaland, for all his remarkable goals output, disrupted City’s balance? Could a midfield used to playing to alleviate the danger of a counter attack adjust to having to play the ball forward quicker? The answer came in the 25-game unbeaten run from mid-February to mid-May in which Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Arsenal and Liverpool were all beaten by three or more goals. Guardiola prepares his side to peak in the spring.
Plus there is the issue of Rodri, who has been absent for each of City’s last four defeats. Had he not been suspended, Guardiola would perhaps have felt more emboldened in his midfield selection. Last time City lost two Premier League games in a row, in December 2018, it was in the absence of Fernandinho: that holding player is crucial to Guardiola’s setup. It might be that when Rodri returns, at home to Brighton after the international break, City click back into their remorseless rhythm.
But there has been a sense over the past couple of years that soccer is beginning to change, that the age of free-flowing slugfests between the big sides may be coming to an end, that the wheel is turning again towards something more attritional. There is no reason why Guardiola can’t adapt, but it is another challenge.
And there is an irony, perhaps even something more causal than that, in the fact that as he has diversified his approach with a more orthodox centre-forward and direct wingers, moving away from the austere purity of his Barcelona philosophy to counter those who have sought to counter him, the result may be his City can be beaten like a normal team.
On this day
The Estonian soccer federation had erected temporary floodlights for their World Cup qualifier at home to Scotland scheduled for 9 October 1996, but when the Scots trained at the Kadrioru Stadium in Tallinn the night before the game, they expressed concern that they weren’t bright enough. Fifa agreed and ordered that the kick-off time be brought forward from 6.45pm to 3pm. Estonia, though, refused to change their plans, with the result that when Scotland turned up for the afternoon kick-off, they were the only side on the pitch. As Scotland fans sang: “There’s only one team in Tallinn,” Billy Dodds kicked off to John Collins at which the Yugoslav referee Miroslav Radoman abandoned the game. As Scotland left the stadium, the Estonians turned up for the original kick-off time.
Scotland assumed they would be awarded a walkover, but Fifa instead ordered the game to be played on a neutral venue the following February. In Monaco, the sides played out a 0-0 draw. Scotland qualified for the World Cup anyway. Many Scottish fans, meanwhile, enjoyed Tallinn so much that they stayed on, setting up businesses in Estonia.
This is an extract from Soccer with Jonathan Wilson, a weekly look from the Guardian US at the game in Europe and beyond. Subscribe for free here. Have a question for Jonathan? Email soccerwithjw@theguardian.com, and he’ll answer the best in a future edition
